Tropical Wave East of Leeward Islands - (Is INVEST 93L)

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 072357
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
757 PM EDT WED SEP 7 2016

A tropical wave is approaching the Lesser Antilles with axis
extending from 21N57W to 08N60W, moving west near 15 to 20 kt
over the past 24 hours. Isolated convection is observed along the
southern tip of the wave affecting portions of Guyana and
Venezuela at this time.

[Gustywind]

Nice ball of strong convection near the 55W/57W.
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/se1ir.html

[LarryWx]

Nice ball of strong convection near the 55W/57W.
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/se1ir.html

Hey Gusty. Although the Euro and GFS are still doing very little with this, I do see the 0Z Euro initialized this as a 1013 mb low (as of 8 PM EDT) near 15N, 54W. On previous runs, the pressure was higher. Also, the CMC love affair with this pouch continues with still another TC genesis though this escapes from underneath the ridge and misses the CONUS east coast due to faster movement.

Note the 0Z CMC 6 hour simulated IR satellite map (about now): http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... watl_2.png
Now note the much less impressive 0Z GFS 6 hour version: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... watl_3.png

Reality matches the CMC and not the GFS as per the impressive current blowup of convection. Could the CMC actually have a better clue as to the health of this pouch?

Anyway, we're here near Dmax with it over very warm SST's though it is being sheared by healthy SW shear right now. I'll continue to watch for any potential surprise from this. Low chance but not zero chance. Still no NHC mention in the TWO. I think development chances are near 10%. Closed surface low over very warm SST's with a favorable MJO during the heart of the season moving WNW? Gotta watch!

Edit: Well, lookie here. Now suddenly the Euro is taking a little bit of a liking to this days 3+, the most of any Euro run so far though it is a fish.

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 080903
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
503 AM EDT THU SEP 8 2016

A tropical wave is in the far E Caribbean waters extending from
08N to 19N with axis near 62W, moving W at 20 kt within the last
24 hours. The wave is in a region of mainly favorable deep layer
wind shear. However, water vapor imagery indicate there is strong
dry air subsidence in that region, which continue to hinder shower
activity.

[cycloneye]

A concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms associated with a
broad area of low pressure has developed about 350 miles east of
the Leeward Islands. This activity is expected to move toward the
west-northwest, and additional development, if any, will be slow
to occur during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

[LarryWx]

Gusty, it looks like our little baby is growing up as he/she finally made it into a TWO. The baby is looking good!

[Gustywind]

Gusty, it looks like our little baby is growing up as he/she finally made it into a TWO. The baby is looking good!

Yeah a pregnant ball of convection looking good this morning. NHC circled it too that becoming more evident. Let's wait and see what could happens with this little puppy.

[LarryWx]

Gusty, it looks like our little baby is growing up as he/she finally made it into a TWO. The baby is looking good!

Yeah a pregnant ball of convection looking good this morning. NHC circled it too that becoming more evident. Let's wait and see what could happens with this little puppy.

Looking back in this thread, I have to give credit to colbroe and abajan as the two true parents. Gusty and I merely adopted this puppy.

[Gustywind]

Gusty, it looks like our little baby is growing up as he/she finally made it into a TWO. The baby is looking good!

Yeah a pregnant ball of convection looking good this morning. NHC circled it too that becoming more evident. Let's wait and see what could happens with this little puppy.

Looking back in this thread, I have to give credit to colbroe and abajan as the two true parents. Gusty and I merely adopted this puppy.

so we're good brothers

[Emmett_Brown]

I think this is now 93L, floater is on it http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... oater.html

[cycloneye]

Is Invest 93L