Western Caribbean disturbance - is INVEST 90L

[SFLcane]

Yep the spin across the NW caribbean is an ULL but as gatorcane mentioned its a tad confusing on were if any actual low pressure develops. Good odds id think as EPS is near 80% for atleast a TD to develop.

[chaser1]

Yep the spin across the NW caribbean is an ULL but as gatorcane mentioned its a tad confusing on were if any actual low pressure develops. Good odds id think as EPS is near 80% for atleast a TD to develop.

80%........ at what time frame?

[SFLcane]

Yep the spin across the NW caribbean is an ULL but as gatorcane mentioned its a tad confusing on were if any actual low pressure develops. Good odds id think as EPS is near 80% for atleast a TD to develop.

80%........ at what time frame?

roughly between 72-120hrs.

[chaser1]

Yep the spin across the NW caribbean is an ULL but as gatorcane mentioned its a tad confusing on were if any actual low pressure develops. Good odds id think as EPS is near 80% for atleast a TD to develop.

80%........ at what time frame?

roughly between 72-120hrs.

Before this year I'd have a good deal more confidence in the Euro operational for that time frame. The fact that most EPS members depict development for that time frame yet the near to mid term Operational model is merely spitting out fast moving pieces of energy, lead me to think that upper level conditions are just not all that conducive for a stacked tropical system to develop within that time frame. If there were a poll or if I were making a $5.00 wager, I'd certainly bet "against" that a Tropical Depression (or stronger) was going to form within 120 hours. I was surprised that NHC even referenced the area in their T.W.O.

[CourierPR]

Met. Joe Bastardi is calling for development down in the Caribbean so apparently the meteorologists know something the rest of us do not.

[wxman57]

Note that we're not expecting the current feature over the Yucatan and BoC to develop. That's an upper-level low in the southern BoC and a surface trof over the Yucatan. Both will be tracking west into Mexico over the next 48 hrs.

I do notice that pressures across the western Caribbean and southern Gulf are unusually low (sub-1008mb). Definitely an area to keep an eye on for the next week of two. Most likely track would be toward Florida. Current indications are of a sheared TS rather than a hurricane.

Edited to add a screenshot from my workstation earlier this morning:

[toad strangler]

Note that we're not expecting the current feature over the Yucatan and BoC to develop. That's an upper-level low in the southern BoC and a surface trof over the Yucatan. Both will be tracking west into Mexico over the next 48 hrs.

I do notice that pressures across the western Caribbean and southern Gulf are unusually low (sub-1008mb). Definitely an area to keep an eye on for the next week of two. Most likely track would be toward Florida. Current indications are of a sheared TS rather than a hurricane.

So HEAVY to the E side of track with convection

[gatorcane]

GFS has no development shifting the broad low west to Central GOM. CMC similar which now drops development.

[SFLcane]

GFS has no development shifting the broad low west to Central GOM. CMC similar which now drops development.

yet it has the capeverde season in full gear...

[Alyono]

this is a classic case where we cannot use modelology

Canadian drops development because it has spurious development in the Florida Straits. It also looks to have an Andrew-like system under a very strong ridge early next week

This run can be sent straight to the trash can

[chaser1]

Met. Joe Bastardi is calling for development down in the Caribbean so apparently the meteorologists know something the rest of us do not.

I think you mean..... so apparently "that meteorologist" knows something the rest of us do not. You may well be right. But a depression to form in under 120 hrs from 12Z today though? I think I'd even change my $5.00 wager to "double or nothing"

[Alyono]

GFS has what looks to be a slightly more westward version of Colin from last year

[chris_fit]

12Z GFS

[Emmett_Brown]

All the models seem to lack consistency regarding development/future track, but the Euro has been the most consistent model, showing some sort of development. The other models are firing off a lot of random vortices; and all seem somewhat confused by the pattern. This may be one of those times when all the models are wrong, and we get something completely different.

[rickybobby]

Wftv said it should move north and it is worth watching the next few days.

[otowntiger]

looks like tampa to venice strike. No way to indicate or forecast strength accurately. I would be concerned tho given where its coming from. The potential for a catastrophic set up is definitely there and the energy is completely untapped.

There is potential for a tropical disturbance. Nothing in the models suggests anything catastrophic. Need to be more guarded in the language selection.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Let's hope not even a week tropical storm forms. With so much debris from Irma still lining the streets and broken limbs hanging in all the trees, it wouldn't take much to mess up the Tampa Bay area again! I cringe thinking about having to go through all that mess again, losing everything in the fridge & freezers, no electricity for a week, having difficulty getting out of my neighborhood, bare grocery shelves. yuk. And to think the folks in PR are STILL going through it, many since Irma hit them --even before Maria!!
.

[chris_fit]

12Z coming for the EURO, still has something @ 96hrs

[gatorcane]

Euro still going with EGOM solution. Note the winds and weather well to the SE of the system indicating a sloppy system:

[chris_fit]

EURO 12Z @ 144