Eastern Gulf of Mexico Area of Interest

[Aric Dunn]

A vigorous low to mid level circ is along and just off the north west cuban coast. it is not at the surface however some continued convective pulses can change that pretty quick. a TD or sub TS is not out of the question.

[CyclonicFury]

12z Euro quite bullish

[Aric Dunn]

yeah, euro has increased divergence aloft really gets the surface low going this run. given the current structure of this today. I would not be surprised it we do get a TS out of it. NHC will likely say something this evening if the convection continues to be somewhat organized.

[gatorcane]

the FV3 GFS has been quite “bullish” the past few runs and I was shaking my head like “yeah right.” Now that the Euro is similar may just get something forming here. Will NHC mention it?

[NotSparta]

12z euro goes beserk with 005mb low

[gatorcane]

Seen invests look worse than this, saved loop, might be time to tag it:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[gatorcane]

Wow EC down to 1003mb...that is a TS at 72 hours.

[Kazmit]

Not sure why the NHC hasn't given this a mention yet.

[Aric Dunn]

Not sure why the NHC hasn't given this a mention yet.

With the EUro on board.. I bet they say something soon. lol

[northjaxpro]

Yes, I agree. EURO rather bullish on showing a decent tropical or sub-tropical system. NHC will give this entity a mention quite soon I would think.

[cycloneye]

@RyanMaue
ECMWF 12z spins up a tropical storm in the northern Gulf of Mexico by Tuesday. The system may not be fully tropical at first but this model indicates a "transition" into a compact, warm-core entity.

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/995734843748225026

[cycloneye]

I wont be surprised if Invest 90L is up very soon.

[TheStormExpert]

Would be surprised if the NHC didn’t mention this no later than this evening.

[cycloneye]

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
340 PM EDT Sun May 13 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A large area of cloudiness, showers, and thunderstorms extending
from western Cuba across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, the
Florida Straits, and much of the Florida Peninsula is associated
with a broad surface low and trough interacting with an upper-level
low. This system could acquire some subtropical or tropical
characteristics while it moves slowly northward across the eastern
Gulf of Mexico during the next few days. Regardless of subtropical
or tropical cyclone formation, this system will enhance rainfall
across portions of Florida and the northeastern Gulf Coast during
the next few days. For more information on this system, please see
products issued by your local weather office. The next Special
Tropical Weather Outlook on this system will be issued by 11 AM EDT
Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brennan

[NotSparta]

with those chances, it'll probably be an invest soon

[NotSparta]

:uarrow: with those chances, it'll probably be an invest soon

we'll get to see the fate of floaters too

[Aric Dunn]

oh the NHC and the EUro ..

[cycloneye]

@TropicalTidbits
Surface pressures are falling in the vicinity of Florida as upper-level baroclinic forcing coupled with tropical moisture induces cyclogenesis. As soon as a closed low forms, we will have to watch for signs of subtropical/tropical transition, as the gulf water is warm enough.

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/995759011361382400

[BYG Jacob]

Happy 2018 everybody. If this is a sign of things, it will be a long year.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Shear is way too strong though, is it not?