Possible Development in the Gulf of Mexico

[N2FSU]

[USTropics]

06z GFS coming in stronger with the vort signature before making landfall near the big bend area of FL in ~42 hours:

[ronjon]

Hard to tell if 06z GFS picking up on a non-tropical low pressure system along the front or something else. I have to believe upper level winds will be unfavorable for development in the NE GOM. About the only models showing some development are the ICON and NAVGEM so thinking right now it'll be weak nontropical low along the front.

[northjaxpro]

Hard to tell if 06z GFS picking up on a non-tropical low pressure system along the front or something else. I have to believe upper level winds will be unfavorable for development in the NE GOM. About the only models showing some development are the ICON and NAVGEM so thinking right now it'll be weak nontropical low along the front.

I agree. It will be likely a Non Tropical entity.

[NDG]

I still just don't see anything tropical developing over the GOM during the next 3 days with the UL trough digging down across the northern GOM, along with lower surface dewpoints and continental dry mid level air. The front/surface trough would have to stick around for a few days & over water for the environment to become better for tropical or subtropical development.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Jul 24 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Disorganized cloudiness and showers located over the northwestern
Gulf of Mexico are associated with a frontal boundary. A broad
area of low pressure is expected to form along this boundary
tonight, and environmental conditions could support some gradual
development during the next couple of days while the disturbance
meanders near the northwestern Gulf Coast.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Brown

[SEASON_CANCELED]

06z GFS coming in stronger with the vort signature before making landfall near the big bend area of FL in ~42 hours:

https://i.ibb.co/nfSYzbx/gfs-z850-vort-seus-fh12-48.gif

This is a very plausible scenario for July. A 35-40mph soaker rolling into the area. I think GFS is onto something

[northjaxpro]

At the very least, it will bring very heavy rain to the Big Bend and all of North Florida the next couple of days potentially, whatever comes of about this system.

[northjaxpro]

Also, quite a vigorous vorticity shown just off the extreme Northern coast of MX southeast of Brownsville, TX in the 06Z GFS run.

[wxman57]

Looks like a common (in the cooler months) west Gulf low which may form along the cold front tomorrow. They're not very common in the summer, but neither are cold fronts that reach the Gulf in July. Strong WSW winds aloft should provide enough wind shear to keep any low from strengthening before it moves inland.

[Emmett_Brown]

From years of watching these home brews, the shear is sort of what helps get them going. And, ultimately limits their potential. The shear giveth, and the shear taketh away.

[ronjon]

:uarrow: At the very least, it will bring very heavy rain to the Big Bend and all of North Florida the next couple of days potentially, whatever comes of about this system.

I agree looks quite wet and stormy for tomorrow along the nature coast. Looks like some 2-5 in totals the next 3 days.

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/d13_fill.gif?1563976585928

[Nimbus]

Still watching the Brown sville radar echos from 10,000 ft+

https://www.wunderground.com/radar/us/t ... sville/bro

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

This is a strong cold front. The prefrontal rain bands are producing some gusty winds. 44 to 53 mph gusts at several weather stations along the beaches of Tampa Bay and the Gulf of Mexico.

https://photos.app.goo.gl/vp82H123iDUMV2257

[Stormcenter]

W/NW Gulf is the area to watch for around Sunday of this
weekend. IMO

[psyclone]

As expected training has become established in a region of convergent onshore flow...at this point targeting the nature coast (specifically Citrus and Hernando Counties)...some localized very heavy rain and flooding is certainly possible.

[northjaxpro]

A very impressive, deeply amplified trough over the Eastern CONUS currently. Front is well down into the Central GOM and has even cleared the entire state of TX , with the boundary into extreme Northern MX.

This is not very common seeing a deep trough like this one in July that is for sure!

[Stormcenter]

Common.....I’ve never seen it in my lifetime in
July that far south.

A very impressive, deeply amplified trough over the Eastern CONUS currently. Front is well down into the Central GOM and has even cleared the entire state of TX , with the boundary into extreme Northern MX.

This is not very common seeing a deep trough like this one in July that is for sure!

[cycloneye]

Down to 10%.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Jul 24 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized cloudiness and showers stretching over the northern
Gulf of Mexico are associated with a frontal boundary. A broad
area of low pressure is expected to form along this boundary
tonight. Dry air and unfavorable upper-level winds, however, are
likely to inhibit significant development during the next couple of
days while the disturbance meanders near the northwestern Gulf
Coast.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Forecaster Brown

[NDG]

Down to 10%.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Jul 24 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized cloudiness and showers stretching over the northern
Gulf of Mexico are associated with a frontal boundary. A broad
area of low pressure is expected to form along this boundary
tonight. Dry air and unfavorable upper-level winds, however, are
likely to inhibit significant development during the next couple of
days while the disturbance meanders near the northwestern Gulf
Coast.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Forecaster Brown

They see what I see.