NE of Bahamas (Invest 97L is up)

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Locked
Message
Author
Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:
Contact Aric Dunn

Re: NE of Bahamas

#21 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Jul 03, 2020 4:38 pm

Tracking that meso vort.. right as it approached the MLC this burst of convection happened. and the flow on the north side shifted out of the east and SE.

if that convection grows. I would wager we have a developing TC.. or is one...

also appears to have separated from the trough.
1 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
Top
Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:
Contact Aric Dunn

Re: NE of Bahamas

#22 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Jul 03, 2020 5:25 pm

I guess the elephant in the room is going to stay invisible..


anyway.. clear SE inflow. convective burst building with hot towers maintaining.. I think we have genesis...
0 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
Top
Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:
Contact Aric Dunn

Re: NE of Bahamas

#23 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Jul 03, 2020 5:49 pm

Image
5 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
Top
Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:
Contact Aric Dunn

Re: NE of Bahamas

#24 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Jul 03, 2020 6:00 pm



Low level inflow becoming more expansive with noticeable cloudlines and has become circular.

convective pattern is pretty indicative of a TC..

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=s ... =undefined
1 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
Top
User avatar
northjaxpro
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8900
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Jacksonville, FL

Re: NE of Bahamas

#25 Postby northjaxpro » Fri Jul 03, 2020 6:01 pm

I am absolutely amazed that this feature has yet to have received not a single mention in the TWO from NHC.

This system sure looks like a TC to me and a well developed one at that.

Oh well...
Last edited by northjaxpro on Fri Jul 03, 2020 6:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
4 likes   
NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!

________________________________________________________________________________________

Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019
Top
Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:
Contact Aric Dunn

Re: NE of Bahamas

#26 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Jul 03, 2020 6:02 pm

northjaxpro wrote:I am absolutely smazed yhst this feature hss not received not a single mention in the TWO from NHC.

This system sure looks like a TC to me and a well developed one at that.

Oh well...


absolutely baffled..
2 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
Top
User avatar
AnnularCane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2836
Joined: Thu Jun 08, 2006 9:18 am
Location: Wytheville, VA

Re: NE of Bahamas

#27 Postby AnnularCane » Fri Jul 03, 2020 6:13 pm




Wow, that is...beautiful.

But like someone else said earlier, kind of hard to get very excited when there's no little colored circle.
0 likes   
Top
TheStormExpert

Re: NE of Bahamas

#28 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri Jul 03, 2020 6:14 pm

Maybe a mention at 8pm? Who knows at this point.

Image
1 likes   
Top
User avatar
tarheelprogrammer
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1793
Joined: Mon Mar 28, 2016 9:25 pm
Location: Raleigh, NC area (Garner, NC)

Re: NE of Bahamas

#29 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Fri Jul 03, 2020 6:14 pm

northjaxpro wrote:I am absolutely amazed that this feature has yet to have received not a single mention in the TWO from NHC.

This system sure looks like a TC to me and a well developed one at that.

Oh well...


I second this. It appears to have a well defined center.
1 likes   
My posts are not official forecasts. They are just my opinion and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:
Contact Aric Dunn

Re: NE of Bahamas

#30 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Jul 03, 2020 6:16 pm

AnnularCane wrote:



Wow, that is...beautiful.

But like someone else said earlier, kind of hard to get very excited when there's no little colored circle.



lol.... circles dont mean everything..

how many times have things gone straight to TD/TS with no warning ? at least once a year... or went from nothing being mentioned then all of a sudden the circle is 90 percent. lol
2 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
Top
User avatar
StruThiO
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 821
Age: 25
Joined: Fri Sep 15, 2017 5:51 am
Location: Currently Portland, OR. Raised in Jax, FL.

Re: NE of Bahamas

#31 Postby StruThiO » Fri Jul 03, 2020 6:17 pm

AL, 97, 2020070400, , BEST, 0, 300N, 730W, 25, 1010, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 120, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 016, SPAWNINVEST, al772020 to al972020,
1 likes   
Top
User avatar
AnnularCane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2836
Joined: Thu Jun 08, 2006 9:18 am
Location: Wytheville, VA

Re: NE of Bahamas

#32 Postby AnnularCane » Fri Jul 03, 2020 6:20 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
AnnularCane wrote:



Wow, that is...beautiful.

But like someone else said earlier, kind of hard to get very excited when there's no little colored circle.



lol.... circles dont mean everything..

how many times have things gone straight to TD/TS with no warning ? at least once a year... or went from nothing being mentioned then all of a sudden the circle is 90 percent. lol



Oh yes, I know! :lol: Well, the next TWO is coming up soon, so...we'll see!

Annnnd...judging by the above post, they may very well have something then.
Last edited by AnnularCane on Fri Jul 03, 2020 6:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
northjaxpro
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8900
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Jacksonville, FL

Re: NE of Bahamas

#33 Postby northjaxpro » Fri Jul 03, 2020 6:20 pm

:uarrow: IF i lean on my intuitive weather senses , the system is giving a presentation of a CDO with the latest explosion of deep convection over the circulation center.
Last edited by northjaxpro on Fri Jul 03, 2020 6:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!

________________________________________________________________________________________

Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019
Top
TheStormExpert

Re: NE of Bahamas

#34 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri Jul 03, 2020 6:21 pm

Well an Invest before a mention by the NHC, how unusual!

 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1279182461646311424




 https://twitter.com/derekortt/status/1279168367279177728


0 likes   
Top
Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:
Contact Aric Dunn

Re: NE of Bahamas

#35 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Jul 03, 2020 6:22 pm

northjaxpro wrote::uarrow: IF i lean.on.my intuitive senses , thr system is giving a presentation of a CDO with the latest explosion of deep convection over the circulation center.



very much.. hot towers are also bulding north starting to wrap around..
at least it is now an invest..

new thread .. coming.
0 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
Top
TheStormExpert

Re: NE of Bahamas

#36 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri Jul 03, 2020 6:26 pm

I’m sure the warm SST’s surrounding Florida are doing their magic here. 8-)
0 likes   
Top
Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:
Contact Aric Dunn

Re: NE of Bahamas

#37 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Jul 03, 2020 6:27 pm

So who is making the new invest thread.. ?

and at this rate of orginization.. we might have Eduardo by the morning. lol
0 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
Top
User avatar
StruThiO
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 821
Age: 25
Joined: Fri Sep 15, 2017 5:51 am
Location: Currently Portland, OR. Raised in Jax, FL.

Re: NE of Bahamas

#38 Postby StruThiO » Fri Jul 03, 2020 6:28 pm

97L thread

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=59&p=2809404#p2809404
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
toad strangler
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4543
Joined: Sun Jul 28, 2013 3:09 pm
Location: Earth
Contact:
Contact toad strangler

Re: NE of Bahamas

#39 Postby toad strangler » Fri Jul 03, 2020 6:28 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
AnnularCane wrote:



Wow, that is...beautiful.

But like someone else said earlier, kind of hard to get very excited when there's no little colored circle.



lol.... circles dont mean everything..

how many times have things gone straight to TD/TS with no warning ? at least once a year... or went from nothing being mentioned then all of a sudden the circle is 90 percent. lol


This is MORE than close enough to July historic climo genesis hot zone to be very suspicious.

Image
1 likes   
Top
User avatar
northjaxpro
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8900
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Jacksonville, FL

Re: NE of Bahamas

#40 Postby northjaxpro » Fri Jul 03, 2020 6:31 pm

I know and went to met school with specalist Beven and know him well., who has been at NHC for years, and he knows of us and they all do down there. It seems as soon as as were questioning why nothing had been mentioned all day BAM, we get an invest tag finally Lol... I just love it ....

Those guys down there earn their keep trust me folks!! Big respect for all of them!
8 likes   
NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!

________________________________________________________________________________________

Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019
Top
Locked

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Ulf and 85 guests