Tropical Wave South-Southwest of Cabo Verde Islands: (Is Invest 95L)

[DorkyMcDorkface]

What's that ahead of it? Looks like a giant outflow boundary surrounding it.

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1292114556899201024

[cycloneye]

Here is the answer AnnularCane.

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1292114556899201024




 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1292116123224342528

[cycloneye]

In my many years watching the tropics I have never seen something like this. The very thin but long cloud boundary extends from the equator to near 20n.

[toad strangler]

It's an SAL "street sweeper" Peak season is here.

[St0rmTh0r]

In my many years watching the tropics I have never seen something like this. The very thin but long cloud boundary extends from the equator to near 20n.

https://www.weathernerds.org/satellite/sessions/GOES16_1km_ir_202008081445_1.25_18.75_-50.25_-13.00_ir1_ltng16_hgwy_warn_latlon_weathernerds.png

What do you think this means this is very unusual?

[cycloneye]

In my many years watching the tropics I have never seen something like this. The very thin but long cloud boundary extends from the equator to near 20n.

https://www.weathernerds.org/satellite/sessions/GOES16_1km_ir_202008081445_1.25_18.75_-50.25_-13.00_ir1_ltng16_hgwy_warn_latlon_weathernerds.png

What do you think this means this is very unusual?

Not common.

[crownweather]

In my many years watching the tropics I have never seen something like this. The very thin but long cloud boundary extends from the equator to near 20n.

https://www.weathernerds.org/satellite/sessions/GOES16_1km_ir_202008081445_1.25_18.75_-50.25_-13.00_ir1_ltng16_hgwy_warn_latlon_weathernerds.png

Interesting that on WV loops that the really dry air is being pushed out of the way with no resistance at all from the dry air near the Antilles (backing to the west). Also, seems to be paving the way for the TWs still over Africa.

[cycloneye]

In my many years watching the tropics I have never seen something like this. The very thin but long cloud boundary extends from the equator to near 20n.

https://www.weathernerds.org/satellite/sessions/GOES16_1km_ir_202008081445_1.25_18.75_-50.25_-13.00_ir1_ltng16_hgwy_warn_latlon_weathernerds.png

Interesting that on WV loops that the really dry air is being pushed out of the way with no resistance at all from the dry air near the Antilles (backing to the west). Also, seems to be paving the way for the TWs still over Africa.

That is very interesting indeed Rob. Let,s see how things go in the next few hours with this.

[CaribJam]

In my many years watching the tropics I have never seen something like this. The very thin but long cloud boundary extends from the equator to near 20n.

https://www.weathernerds.org/satellite/sessions/GOES16_1km_ir_202008081445_1.25_18.75_-50.25_-13.00_ir1_ltng16_hgwy_warn_latlon_weathernerds.png

It seems like a "protective shield" of some sort... protecting the TW.

The unpredictability of the tropics. What's next will we see? STAY TUNED, it is still early August 2020.

[cycloneye]

12z GFS has a brief development.

[crownweather]

12z GFS has a brief development.

https://i.imgur.com/ikRMKAI.gif

Seems the GFS is also trending towards less activity in the EPAC.

[StruThiO]

pretty high up on the list of things that make you go hmmm

[gatorcane]

12z GFS has a brief development.

https://i.imgur.com/ikRMKAI.gif

Then a couple of days later the GFS dissipates it due to a strong SAL surge and westerly shear.

[St0rmTh0r]

That is a very large moisture surge pushing off Africa with the wave too I think this will kill all the dry air out there

[St0rmTh0r]

pretty high up on the list of things that make you go hmmm

https://imgur.com/47en8mV

This has that look this is incredible

[aspen]

12z GFS has a brief development.

https://i.imgur.com/ikRMKAI.gif

If it’s going to continue shoving dry air out of the way, and with the decent spin it already has, maybe there is an actual chance of development. It would be a weak and brief system, but if it were to get named, it would be the earliest 10th named storm on record, and will make it easier for 2020 to beat the record for the earliest 11th named storm.

[StruThiO]

One more a little closer up.. where are GCANE and aric

[cycloneye]

2 PM TWD:

A tropical wave has moved off the coast of Africa along 19W,
from 19N. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted
from 05N to 13N between 15W-24W. A band of moderate to strong
convection is seen southwest of the wave from the Equator
extending north to 10N near the monsoon trough.

[chaser1]

pretty high up on the list of things that make you go hmmm

https://imgur.com/47en8mV

Oh YES it is. And, with that moist outflow boundry well ahead of it and to the west?! Like Cycloneye said, can't quite say i've seen anything quite like that before either. Massive upper anticyclone over the E. Atlantic just tells me that conditions are pretty ripe out there. One can clearly see some rotation with strong westerly surface convergence occuring right now. I think this thing spins up and into a T.S. within 60 hr.s.

[chaser1]

12z GFS has a brief development.

https://i.imgur.com/ikRMKAI.gif

If it’s going to continue shoving dry air out of the way, and with the decent spin it already has, maybe there is an actual chance of development. It would be a weak and brief system, but if it were to get named, it would be the earliest 10th named storm on record, and will make it easier for 2020 to beat the record for the earliest 11th named storm.

I think this wave will continue to develop. If it were to say low latitude (south of 15N), I'm not so sure that i'd bet on this necessarily remaining weak or brief.