2021 Global ACE: NATL - 145.1 / EPAC - 93.6 / WPAC - 205.3 / NIO - 19.8

[cycloneye]

The EPAC basin will have a couple of storms in the next few days that may lift the ACE units count quite a bit especially the one that will develop south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

[cycloneye]

EPAC ties with North Atlantic with 12.8 units as the first Felicia data is up but the basin will get a boost between this storm and the other one that will form behind in the next few days. Let's see how much units the basin gets after this activity is over. My guess is 30 when all is set and done between the 2.

[aspen]

Felicia is sending the EPac’s ACE total far ahead that of the Atlantic’s total. Using my Instantaneous Cyclone Energy formula, the Atlantic is only at 27.79 units, while as of the 18z BT update, the EPac is at 83.58 units. Felicia alone has generated 29.79 units. In order for the Atlantic to catch back up with the EPac, it’ll need to produce a long-tracking hurricane that’s at least as strong as Felicia, which is possible seeing how low and how impressive the waves are despite the suppressed phase not being over yet.

[aspen]

For some reason, Surigae was removed from CSU’s ACE and seasonal stats calculations earlier this morning.

[cycloneye]

EPAC ties with North Atlantic with 12.8 units as the first Felicia data is up but the basin will get a boost between this storm and the other one that will form behind in the next few days. Let's see how much units the basin gets after this activity is over. My guess is 30 when all is set and done between the 2.

Well, I dont think EPAC will reach 30 units because 97E will not be as strong as Felicia but will be close thanks to her.

[Kingarabian]

EPAC ties with North Atlantic with 12.8 units as the first Felicia data is up but the basin will get a boost between this storm and the other one that will form behind in the next few days. Let's see how much units the basin gets after this activity is over. My guess is 30 when all is set and done between the 2.

Well, I dont think EPAC will reach 30 units because 97E will not be as strong as Felicia but will be close thanks to her.

There's a good chance Felicia goes south of Hawaii and there's a decent chance it remains a respectable system. Should get to 30 ACE if that happens.

[cycloneye]

Well,now after the overachivement by Felicia and the forecast for future Guillermo is safe to say the EPAC will reach 35 ACE units when all is set and done.

[aspen]

The Atlantic is going to have a lot of work to do starting in late July/early August to surpass the EPac’s ACE and ICE totals, thanks to Felicia’s unexpected RI into a Category 4. Currently, the basin is sitting at 25.7 ACE, finally surpassing the average at the time of its calculation for the first time this year. 13.1 of those units are from Felicia alone. Felicia is also responsible for the majority of the EPac’s 149.10 units of ICE, at 93.79 units for a peak intensity of 125kt/947mb. Guillermo is unlikely to get very strong so it’ll only raise the ACE and ICE totals by a bit. However, this is still miles ahead of the Atlantic, which is only sitting at 27.79 ICE.

Felicia will probably keep the EPac above the Atlantic for some time. However, once the suppressive CCKW is completely gone from the Atlantic and Africa by early August and a favorable Kelvin Wave comes in, the Atlantic could have the opportunity to catch up. It’ll take another surprise Cat 4 like Felicia to match the EPac by mid-August, though, unless multiple storms — including at least one long-tracker — form in the July 25th-August 15th time frame.

ICE for a single storm is calculated with this formula:

([1015-mbar] x [kt-25])/72.5

[Category5Kaiju]

The Atlantic is going to have a lot of work to do starting in late July/early August to surpass the EPac’s ACE and ICE totals, thanks to Felicia’s unexpected RI into a Category 4. Currently, the basin is sitting at 25.7 ACE, finally surpassing the average at the time of its calculation for the first time this year. 13.1 of those units are from Felicia alone. Felicia is also responsible for the majority of the EPac’s 149.10 units of ICE, at 93.79 units for a peak intensity of 125kt/947mb. Guillermo is unlikely to get very strong so it’ll only raise the ACE and ICE totals by a bit. However, this is still miles ahead of the Atlantic, which is only sitting at 27.79 ICE.

Felicia will probably keep the EPac above the Atlantic for some time. However, once the suppressive CCKW is completely gone from the Atlantic and Africa by early August and a favorable Kelvin Wave comes in, the Atlantic could have the opportunity to catch up. It’ll take another surprise Cat 4 like Felicia to match the EPac by mid-August, though, unless multiple storms — including at least one long-tracker — form in the July 25th-August 15th time frame.

ICE for a single storm is calculated with this formula:

([1015-mbar] x [kt-25])/72.5

To be honest, with a La Nina likely to come to fruition this year, this EPAC season may be very front-loaded, and the basin might technically be "rushing" to get all of its big storms in before the more unfavorable conditions set up down the road. We kind of saw this with 2017 interestingly enough where the EPAC had most of its big guns activity until mid-August or so, and while it seemed like the Atlantic was going to be far behind in ACE, after late August with Harvey forming and beyond, the Atlantic kicked the EPAC's butt in ACE score. In fact, with activity in the EPAC and WPAC pretty scant compared to the more favorable years, I think this could be a sign that the Atlantic may very well take over come August and beyond; I also wouldn't be surprised if Felicia becomes the strongest storm of the EPAC season this year.

[cycloneye]

Felicia has 17.3 ACE units that lifts the EPAC total to above 30 units and she will get a bit more before it dissipates. Guillermo will help a little bit gaining a few more.

[cycloneye]

EPAC is getting a big boost from Linda that is a mayor cane. Looks like is going to surpass the normal average of ACE for that basin.

[CyclonicFury]

The Atlantic looks poised to get a big boost in ACE over the next 2 weeks. 97L is likely to become a subtropics hurricane, 98L could be a quick spinup over the MDR, future 99L has a high ceiling if the northern lobe becomes dominant and the circulation tightens up quickly, and the ECMWF, EPS and CMC indicate that two MDR storms are possible at the start of September.

[cycloneye]

The Atlantic looks poised to get a big boost in ACE over the next 2 weeks. 97L is likely to become a subtropics hurricane, 98L could be a quick spinup over the MDR, future 99L has a high ceiling if the northern lobe becomes dominant and the circulation tightens up quickly, and the ECMWF, EPS and CMC indicate that two MDR storms are possible at the start of September.

Agreed that Atlantic will get a lot of ACE units in the next 2-3 weeks.

[cycloneye]

The North Atlantic is poised to get big ACE units with Ida and wave that models develop comming off Africa, while 98L may contribute with a modest number if it develops.

[weeniepatrol]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1431804854444437506

[aspen]

The Atlantic is up to 41.2 ACE, well above the average of 27.0 ACE for this time of year. Julian will be a very minor contribution, and TD10/Kate might have potential, but it’ll be 90L/Larry that’ll become the big ACE maker of the year. Its modeled track and intensity has the potential to pump out 25-30 ACE or more.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Wondering how much ACE Larry is about to bring to the table... 40 points maybe?

[Teban54]

Posted in the indicators thread but then realized this is a better place for it. (Source)

The phrase "total overall seasonal activity" refers to the combined intensity and duration of Atlantic named storms and hurricanes occurring during the season. The measure of total seasonal activity used by NOAA is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy. The ACE index is a wind energy index, defined as the sum of the squares of the maximum sustained surface wind speed (knots) measured every six hours for all named storms while they are at least tropical storm intensity. The 1991-2020 mean value of the ACE index is 122.1 x 104 kt2, and the median value is 129.5 x 104 kt2. With most of 1991-2020 being in an active era, using ACE values from 1951-2020 is more representative of the possible ranges of activity that can result in similar ACE values. The 1951-2020 ACE median is 96.7 x 104 kt2

The following classifications are based on an approximate tercile partitioning of seasons based on the ACE index, combined with the seasonal number of tropical storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes.

Extremely active season: An ACE index above 159.6 x 104 kt2 (corresponding to 165% of the 1951-2020 median).

Above-normal season: An ACE index above 126.1 x 104 kt2 (corresponding to the 67th percentile of the ACE values from 1951-2020).

Below-normal season:An ACE index below 73.0 x 104 kt2 (corresponding to less than 33rd percentile of the values from 1951-2020 median).

Near-normal season: Neither the above- nor below-normal season criteria are met.
A near-normal season will typically have an ACE range of 73-126 x 104 kt2 (corresponding to approximately 75%-130% of the 1951-2020 median).

Tl;dr: 1951-2020 averages are used for seasonal ACE, so the hyperactive threshold is 159.6 and above average is 126.1.

[Blinhart]

So will we reach Extreme or not is the question.

[Kingarabian]

Just like that the WPAC is back on top.