STS Ana Off US East Coast this Week?

[wxman57]

There is definitely a closed low center - that was never in question. The uncertainty is in whether the NHC would consider it subtropical and name it. Since they have not issued any special tropical outlooks, the odds of it getting named are low. It is certainly frontal low this morning.

[HurricaneEnzo]

Whatever it is I'm ready for it to go on its merry way. Been windy here the last 4 days. Does seem to slowly be becoming more tropical looking however. Might do something depending on how long it can hang around the Gulf Stream

[InfernoFlameCat]

It looks pretty good. Ever heard of a tornado outbreak becoming a tropical storm? Sure I have heard it the other way around constantly but tornadoes becoming a hurricane???. I know this will not be a hurricane but it sounds good to put it that way. Anyhow, convection is tightening but the low is still enlongated and attatched to a front to its east making it still a frontal low.

[InfernoFlameCat]

This system is wrapping convection around the center. Just a little bit more and it will be subtropical or even tropical.

[NDG]

I don't see anything subtropical with this system, clearly frontal boundary attached to it.

[InfernoFlameCat]

I don't see anything subtropical with this system, clearly frontal boundary attached to it.

Actually there is a closed low, some deep convection north of the low, and a partial CDO. The only thing keeping this from being a subtropical storm is a loosely attached front.

[InfernoFlameCat]

I am calling this subtropical now. My personal opinion BTW. Take note of this.
It appears that it is no longer frontal because warm dry air is closed off from the circulation so now the storm is subtropical. This is my reasoning.

[Iceresistance]

Saved loop from COD Meteorology

[TROPICALCYCLONEALERT]

This is not a subtropical cyclone, not even close to one. The disturbance in question is riding along a trough, which is pretty evident on visible imagery this morning. There also are multiple frontal features, seen both on the satellite imagery (note the line of lightning emanating away from the non-tropical low, delineating a cold front) and the linked surface analysis.

[Iceresistance]

I'm saying a 5-10% of developement of the Trough into a Subtropical System

[InfernoFlameCat]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/733554252567281754/823566234729185300/radsfcus_exp_new.png
This is not a subtropical cyclone, not even close to one. The disturbance in question is riding along a trough, which is pretty evident on visible imagery this morning. There also are multiple frontal features, seen both on the satellite imagery (note the line of lightning emanating away from the non-tropical low, delineating a cold front) and the linked surface analysis.

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/733554252567281754/823566953884155994/GOES16_1km_vis_202103221155_27.png

Seems I was wrong. Should have noted the line of storms connected to it as well as the temperature contrast split down the front.

[wxman57]

I'm saying a 5-10% of developement of the Trough into a Subtropical System

It's not a trough, it's a closed low. However, it's still attached to a cold front.

[Iceresistance]

I'm saying a 5-10% of developement of the Trough into a Subtropical System

It's not a trough, it's a closed low. However, it's still attached to a cold front.

Good reason why I called a 5-10% chance for this one, there is a another area of low pressure further south of the closed low . . . (Which is the trough, I put out the wrong low pressure area as the trough )

[aspen]

Yep, I see the closed low. It’s gonna have to break off from the front to become Ana, but I don’t know if it has nearly enough time.

[InfernoFlameCat]

I really want a march preseason storm

[cycloneye]

Looks good on radar but...

 https://twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/1374041907232342019

[Iceresistance]

Looks good on radar but...

https://twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/1374041907232342019

What if it decides to move over the Gulf Stream?

[aspen]

Looks good on radar but...

https://twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/1374041907232342019

What if it decides to move over the Gulf Stream?

It’s warmer...but not much warmer. Still well below 26C last time I checked.

[NXStumpy_Robothing]

Looks good on radar but...

https://twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/1374041907232342019

What if it decides to move over the Gulf Stream?

The system is, for the most part, over the Gulf Stream. At this time of year, there is simply not enough warm water around without heavy amounts of atmospheric assistance for this thing to begin transitioning away from being a non-tropical low. Per the TT website, the current location of the system only has waters at around 22C, well below the usual 26-26.5C needed for tropical cyclogenesis.

[InfernoFlameCat]

But the water needed for subtropical development ARE there...