When will Fred form?

[abajan]

Or Fred might just form from this ball of convection tumbling off the West African coast:

https://i.imgur.com/WflRwgG.gif

On second thought, I get fooled by balls of convection emerging from West Africa every hurricane season. Not this year!

Riiiiight.

But that IS a good-looking wave.

Yeah, it better fall apart right away, like they normally do this time of year, if not, this could be our first Major of the year.

I suppose it's still worth keeping an eye on, but what a difference a day makes:

[ElectricStorm]

Or Fred might just form from this ball of convection tumbling off the West African coast:

https://i.imgur.com/WflRwgG.gif

On second thought, I get fooled by balls of convection emerging from West Africa every hurricane season. Not this year!

Riiiiight.

But that IS a good-looking wave.

Yeah, it better fall apart right away, like they normally do this time of year, if not, this could be our first Major of the year.

Nope. Not even a chance of this even developing, let alone a major

[cycloneye]

Those who have not voted yet have until 6:20 PM EDT to cast a vote.

[Fishing]

I will say August 2 Fred will form. I know it’s a ways off! We will see. Unless they name 98L which doesn’t seem right because that’s Elsa reincarnated.


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[captainbarbossa19]

Fred might form within 5 days off the coast of Florida or later in the Gulf.

[cycloneye]

The 13 members who voted July 11-20 are out of the running. Now is the turn for the 39 that voted 21-31.

[Category5Kaiju]

The 13 members who voted July 11-20 are out of the running. Now is the turn for the 39 that voted 21-31.

I was one of those 39, looks like it's judgement week

[aspen]

RIP me and the 38 other people who voted for late July. The suppressive MJO was more formidable than I anticipated.

[Stormybajan]

RIP me and the 38 other people who voted for late July. The suppressive MJO was more formidable than I anticipated.

RIP me also, but with NONE of the global models showing development for the next 2 weeks, August 1st-10th people might also start chewing their nails right now
Surely this was one of the stronger suppressive MJO signals we've seen to cause such a lengthy break possibly. Maybe this incoming enhanced MJO phase will be the opposite end of the spectrum, right in time for peak season

[AnnularCane]

July 21-31, going with aspen's prediction of a late July pickup in activity.

So should I blame aspen or what?

[aspen]

July 21-31, going with aspen's prediction of a late July pickup in activity.

So should I blame aspen or what?

Note to self: don’t rely too much on MJO progression forecasts for predicting storms, because it’ll probably take longer for the Atlantic to recover following a suppressive phase.

[Category5Kaiju]

RIP me and the 38 other people who voted for late July. The suppressive MJO was more formidable than I anticipated.

RIP me also, but with NONE of the global models showing development for the next 2 weeks, August 1st-10th people might also start chewing their nails right now
Surely this was one of the stronger suppressive MJO signals we've seen to cause such a lengthy break possibly. Maybe this incoming enhanced MJO phase will be the opposite end of the spectrum, right in time for peak season

Actually the GEPS and ECMWF are potentially sniffing some development in the MDR near the end of the August 1-10 timeframe, and this has recently been somewhat consistent (GFS initially showed something but dropped it, although if history shows this is to be expected for the GFS in particular). Also the CCKW and MJO's positive phase should be moving in quite soon, so August should imho be a switch change, with the end of the month perhaps having the potential to be hectic. Again, this is my take tbh, but I personally would be very surprised to even see the August 1-10 people incorrect.

[aspen]

RIP me and the 38 other people who voted for late July. The suppressive MJO was more formidable than I anticipated.

RIP me also, but with NONE of the global models showing development for the next 2 weeks, August 1st-10th people might also start chewing their nails right now
Surely this was one of the stronger suppressive MJO signals we've seen to cause such a lengthy break possibly. Maybe this incoming enhanced MJO phase will be the opposite end of the spectrum, right in time for peak season

Actually the GEPS and ECMWF are potentially sniffing some development in the MDR near the end of the August 1-10 timeframe, and this has recently been somewhat consistent (GFS initially showed something but dropped it, although if history shows this is to be expected for the GFS in particular). Also the CCKW and MJO's positive phase should be moving in quite soon, so August should imho be a switch change, with the end of the month perhaps having the potential to be hectic. Again, this is my take tbh, but I personally would be very surprised to even see the August 1-10 people incorrect.

Agreed, a gap of 4-5 weeks or longer is very unusual for a year with a developing Nina, an Atlantic Niño, a strong WAM, and above-average SSTs in the tropics all at the same time. The MJO and -VP EPac cell can’t keep the Atlantic quiet for much longer.

[aspen]

If the CFS is right, Fred will form in the MDR between August 5th and 10th, and could be the first ASO long-tracker.

[captainbarbossa19]

If the CFS is right, Fred will form in the MDR between August 5th and 10th, and could be the first ASO long-tracker.

The wave about to emerge from Africa just might be Fred in a few days. If this happens, way to go CFS!

[aspen]

Now it seems that Fred probably won’t form until August 11-20th, seeing how badly these waves are struggling. Maybe the two people who picked August 21st-31st will be right at this rate.

[Category5Kaiju]

Now it seems that Fred probably won’t form until August 11-20th, seeing how badly these waves are struggling. Maybe the two people who picked August 21st-31st will be right at this rate.

Nah, at this rate Fred won't happen until November

[aspen]

If PTC6 doesn’t close off by the 5pm advisory, the 3 people who picked August 11-20th will be right.

[tolakram]

If PTC6 doesn’t close off by the 5pm advisory, the 3 people who picked August 11-20th will be right.

Expect me to start downcasting until 5PM then!

[TallyTracker]

I’m rooting for TS Fred with 40 mph winds at 5 pm cause I voted the 1-10th!