2021 Oddball Hurricane Season Prediction Thread Using the Chinese Zodiac (12 Year/ 60 year Cycle)

[tolakram]

I don't think Florida is off the hook in an el nino year.

Why is the chance of an el nino higher next year? Is there any known reason why el nino is more common after a la nina, or is this the gamblers fallacy?

[FireRat]

I don't think Florida is off the hook in an el nino year.

Why is the chance of an el nino higher next year? Is there any known reason why el nino is more common after a la nina, or is this the gamblers fallacy?

True stuff, although El Niño years are usually slower, they can feature nasty landfallers, like 1992 did for example. In fact, I don't know exactly why, but beyond the whole Chinese astrology thing, I have a strange feeling about 2022, maybe perhaps because of Andrew's 30 year anniversary coming up then.

I could see 2022 being a year in which a fairly high number of storms will form for a Niño year (IF an El Niño even develops then), like 19 or 20 named storms, with most of them being on the weaker side, but with there also being one or 2 monster hurricanes that head west towards land, especially Sept - Oct, right before the season winds down early. Just my oddball hunch y'all

[Shell Mound]

I don't think Florida is off the hook in an el nino year.

Why is the chance of an el nino higher next year? Is there any known reason why el nino is more common after a la nina, or is this the gamblers fallacy?

True stuff, although El Niño years are usually slower, they can feature nasty landfallers, like 1992 did for example. In fact, I don't know exactly why, but beyond the whole Chinese astrology thing, I have a strange feeling about 2022, maybe perhaps because of Andrew's 30 year anniversary coming up then.

I could see 2022 being a year in which a fairly high number of storms will form for a Niño year (IF an El Niño even develops then), like 19 or 20 named storms, with most of them being on the weaker side, but with there also being one or 2 monster hurricanes that head west towards land, especially Sept - Oct, right before the season winds down early. Just my oddball hunch y'all

One correction: Andrew coincided with neutral ENSO during ASO, not El Niño, which had subsided months earlier. Andrew thus occurred after El Niño’s dissipation.

As an aside, have your “hunches” proven correct in years past, besides 2020? I know that your “outlook” for last season was quite prescient. What about other years?

[FireRat]

One correction: Andrew coincided with neutral ENSO during ASO, not El Niño, which had subsided months earlier. Andrew thus occurred after El Niño’s dissipation.

As an aside, have your “hunches” proven correct in years past, besides 2020? I know that your “outlook” for last season was quite prescient. What about other years?

Sup Shell, didn't know that about the time Andy did his thing, wow, I always thought 1992 was El Niño all the way, guess that explains a bit why Andrew blew up like that in such a year. (Although it was a Water Monkey year, like 1932, from this point of view)

You know, I've actually been keeping track of this stuff since 2002 and have had past "hunches" mostly based on chinese astrology and numerology combined about several seasons, just I never really posted this kind of stuff here but instead on other forums dedicated to esoteric stuff like this...

2004, 2005, 2007-2008, 2010 and 2016-2017 were my other hunches for big hurricane seasons in the Atlantic, plus having a landfalling Cat 5 in September 2019 (a 1935 repeat), and I also had a feeling 2008-2010 & 2013 would be extreme on the other side of the world in typhoon-land.

Yet I thought 2007-2008 would cream Florida bad only to have the storms rage in the Caribbean and GOM, and also I was surprised by how crazy 2018 turned out, but I guess it was kind of like 1898 in a weird way.

As far as Florida is concerned though, the only years I thought FL would get it, and did so, was 2004-05 and 2017.
Most of the other years I thought FL would get it, the state got lucky but Bahamas/Cuba got it instead.

[AlphaToOmega]

In 1961, there was Hurricane Esther. In 1991, there was Hurricane Bob. 1991 and 1961 are 30 years apart. 30 years later in 2021, we might have to face another hurricane. Basically, metal sheep and metal ox years are ones we have to worry about

[FireRat]

In 1961, there was Hurricane Esther. In 1991, there was Hurricane Bob. 1991 and 1961 are 30 years apart. 30 years later in 2021, we might have to face another hurricane. Basically, metal sheep and metal ox years are ones we have to worry about

Interesting observation AlphaToOmega, and the fact Sheep and Ox are opposites in Chinese astrology makes it that more curious too. It's kinda like these years try to outdo each other in being rather quiet overall, or having these storms that curve before the Bahamas, or develop off the Southeast, and head to the Northeast US. Another sheep year that affected the NE was 1955. 2003 kinda counts too, if we include NC and the Mid-Atlantic along with the Northeast as one group, being the north half of the eastern US seaboard. Surely there are several other years that have this, but this is one of two general patterns in most Ox & Sheep year cycles

[Shell Mound]

One correction: Andrew coincided with neutral ENSO during ASO, not El Niño, which had subsided months earlier. Andrew thus occurred after El Niño’s dissipation.

As an aside, have your “hunches” proven correct in years past, besides 2020? I know that your “outlook” for last season was quite prescient. What about other years?

Sup Shell, didn't know that about the time Andy did his thing, wow, I always thought 1992 was El Niño all the way, guess that explains a bit why Andrew blew up like that in such a year. (Although it was a Water Monkey year, like 1932, from this point of view)

You know, I've actually been keeping track of this stuff since 2002...

2004, 2005, 2007-2008, 2010 and 2016-2017 were my other hunches for big hurricane seasons in the Atlantic, plus having a landfalling Cat 5 in September 2019 (a 1935 repeat), and I also had a feeling 2008-2010 & 2013 would be extreme on the other side of the world in typhoon-land.

Yet I thought 2007-2008 would cream Florida bad only to have the storms rage in the Caribbean and GOM, and also I was surprised by how crazy 2018 turned out, but I guess it was kind of like 1898 in a weird way.

As far as Florida is concerned though, the only years I thought FL would get it, and did so, was 2004-05 and 2017.
Most of the other years I thought FL would get it, the state got lucky but Bahamas/Cuba got it instead.

It is interesting that your Zodiac-based “hunches” were generally correct, with the seasons matching your “hunches” in every department except FL hits, though 2004–5 and 2017 did verify as significant years for the state. One has to wonder whether some mysterious “force-field” has been shielding the state somewhat, given that, for whatever reason, the “Zodiac methodology” seems to work rather well. Maybe all the conspiracy theories about HAARP have something to them...or maybe FL’s relative fortune is just based on statistical “noise.” On the other hand, 2008 did feature Fay, a borderline hurricane, near Lake Okeechobee, so arguably FL did sustain an impact in 2008. Nevertheless, 2004–5, 2007–8, 2010, and 2016–7 all ended up as intense and/or impactful Atlantic seasons, September 2019 featured Dorian (which made landfall with MSW of 160 kt, tying the 1935 hurricane!), and 2008–10/2013 featured extreme and/or destructive WPAC typhoons such as Jangmi (2008), Morakot (2009), Ketsana (2009), Parma (2009), Mirinae (2009), Nida (2009), Megi (2010), and—perhaps most notoriously—Haiyan (2013). 2009 in particular is interesting, as it was the costliest on record in the Philippines up to that time, and was also an exceptionally deadly season for various locations around the basin, despite being below average overall. Haiyan in many ways was the WPAC’s riposte to the Atlantic’s Dorian: an extremely intense (and, like Dorian, deadly) landfall, one of the strongest on record, alongside the 1935 hurricane, Dorian, and a relative handful of others.

[Shell Mound]

In 1961, there was Hurricane Esther. In 1991, there was Hurricane Bob. 1991 and 1961 are 30 years apart. 30 years later in 2021, we might have to face another hurricane. Basically, metal sheep and metal ox years are ones we have to worry about

Interesting observation AlphaToOmega, and the fact Sheep and Ox are opposites in Chinese astrology makes it that more curious too. It's kinda like these years try to outdo each other in being rather quiet overall, or having these storms that curve before the Bahamas, or develop off the Southeast, and head to the Northeast US. Another sheep year that affected the NE was 1955. 2003 kinda counts too, if we include NC and the Mid-Atlantic along with the Northeast as one group, being the north half of the eastern US seaboard. Surely there are several other years that have this, but this is one of two general patterns in most Ox & Sheep year cycles

Interestingly, 1938 and 1944 were Years of the Tiger and Monkey, respectively, both of which are opposites on the Zodiac, too. 1938/1944 featured two of the most impactful storms on record in New England. Relative to Esther and Bob, those storms were stronger and/or more intense, either in terms of MSW or MSLP or both, and were also larger in size. Esther, in particular, weakened to a TS while executing a clockwise loop just offshore. Perhaps 2021 will feature a threat to New England that delivers possible hurricane impacts, but ends up being less extreme than a similar storm in, say, a Year of the Tiger or a Year of the Monkey might be. Maybe 2021 will follow up on 2020 with a somewhat stronger version of Isaias.

[FireRat]

It is interesting that your Zodiac-based “hunches” were generally correct, with the seasons matching your “hunches” in every department except FL hits, though 2004–5 and 2017 did verify as significant years for the state. One has to wonder whether some mysterious “force-field” has been shielding the state somewhat, given that, for whatever reason, the “Zodiac methodology” seems to work rather well. Maybe all the conspiracy theories about HAARP have something to them...or maybe FL’s relative fortune is just based on statistical “noise.” On the other hand, 2008 did feature Fay, a borderline hurricane, near Lake Okeechobee, so arguably FL did sustain an impact in 2008. Nevertheless, 2004–5, 2007–8, 2010, and 2016–7 all ended up as intense and/or impactful Atlantic seasons, September 2019 featured Dorian (which made landfall with MSW of 160 kt, tying the 1935 hurricane!), and 2008–10/2013 featured extreme and/or destructive WPAC typhoons such as Jangmi (2008), Morakot (2009), Ketsana (2009), Parma (2009), Mirinae (2009), Nida (2009), Megi (2010), and—perhaps most notoriously—Haiyan (2013). 2009 in particular is interesting, as it was the costliest on record in the Philippines up to that time, and was also an exceptionally deadly season for various locations around the basin, despite being below average overall. Haiyan in many ways was the WPAC’s riposte to the Atlantic’s Dorian: an extremely intense (and, like Dorian, deadly) landfall, one of the strongest on record, alongside the 1935 hurricane, Dorian, and a relative handful of others.

Interestingly, 1938 and 1944 were Years of the Tiger and Monkey, respectively, both of which are opposites on the Zodiac, too. 1938/1944 featured two of the most impactful storms on record in New England. Relative to Esther and Bob, those storms were stronger and/or more intense, either in terms of MSW or MSLP or both, and were also larger in size. Esther, in particular, weakened to a TS while executing a clockwise loop just offshore. Perhaps 2021 will feature a threat to New England that delivers possible hurricane impacts, but ends up being less extreme than a similar storm in, say, a Year of the Tiger or a Year of the Monkey might be. Maybe 2021 will follow up on 2020 with a somewhat stronger version of Isaias.

I've been fascinated for a long time by how the "zodiac methodology" has had all these correlations, it really makes you wonder! Most of the years did indeed match the expectations from the esoteric, it really is kinda mysterious as to why it seems to work that way!
I see Chinese Astrology as a sort of wisdom handed down over the millenia, that also applies to nature, and is quite fun to track and see what it could portend with coming hurricane seasons. The Dorian and 1935 hurricane September happening is no coincidence IMO, this happened during the 2nd half of the Year of the Pig, and it served as a powerful opening act to the Rat years that could follow. The same thing happened with Dean/Felix in 2007, followed by a wild 2008. 1995 followed by 1996, 2019 followed by 2020 and so on.

With respects to the year at hand 2021, perhaps it would be good news and the NE gets storm that is weaker than it could've been, which would be like Esther instead of the 1938 Long Island Express.

The 1938/1944 Tiger year vs Monkey year thing with the Northeast US getting hit hard is another really interesting oddity, just like the Sheep/Ox thing AlphaToOmega brought up... and this is actually another reason I have this 2022 "hunch" with respect to Florida and Bahamas, possibly Cuba, because Water Tiger might challenge Water Monkey's Andrew or 1932 storms, I know it may sound nuts, but could 2022 try to be like 1992? Of course with more storms likely being detected with today's methods, I could see 2022 reach up to 19 or 20 storms, but with one of those mimicking Andrew, much like the 1961/1991 thing, could there be a near future 1992/2022 thing coming? This kinda makes your head scratch a bit lol. Also, 2022 could 'try to challenge' 2016, the most recent Monkey year, so we end up with a 1992/2016 hybrid, but one that behaves like a Tiger Year too! I know next year's oddball thread is gonna be a fun one to say the least!

Btw, I see some others going cuckoo with the hypothetical stuff about 2022 already, lol:
https://hypotheticalhurricanes.fandom.com/wiki/Hurricane_Tobias_(2022)
Talk about some dark entertainment!

[beoumont]

[quote="Shell Mound"

Next year will almost certainly feature El Niño, however, so I would look beyond 2022 for potential threats.

[AlphaToOmega]

In 1961, there was Hurricane Esther. In 1991, there was Hurricane Bob. 1991 and 1961 are 30 years apart. 30 years later in 2021, we might have to face another hurricane. Basically, metal sheep and metal ox years are ones we have to worry about

Interesting observation AlphaToOmega, and the fact Sheep and Ox are opposites in Chinese astrology makes it that more curious too. It's kinda like these years try to outdo each other in being rather quiet overall, or having these storms that curve before the Bahamas, or develop off the Southeast, and head to the Northeast US. Another sheep year that affected the NE was 1955. 2003 kinda counts too, if we include NC and the Mid-Atlantic along with the Northeast as one group, being the north half of the eastern US seaboard. Surely there are several other years that have this, but this is one of two general patterns in most Ox & Sheep year cycles

Interestingly, 1938 and 1944 were Years of the Tiger and Monkey, respectively, both of which are opposites on the Zodiac, too. 1938/1944 featured two of the most impactful storms on record in New England. Relative to Esther and Bob, those storms were stronger and/or more intense, either in terms of MSW or MSLP or both, and were also larger in size. Esther, in particular, weakened to a TS while executing a clockwise loop just offshore. Perhaps 2021 will feature a threat to New England that delivers possible hurricane impacts, but ends up being less extreme than a similar storm in, say, a Year of the Tiger or a Year of the Monkey might be. Maybe 2021 will follow up on 2020 with a somewhat stronger version of Isaias.

Maybe this will verify with Henri

[tolakram]

Interesting observation AlphaToOmega, and the fact Sheep and Ox are opposites in Chinese astrology makes it that more curious too. It's kinda like these years try to outdo each other in being rather quiet overall, or having these storms that curve before the Bahamas, or develop off the Southeast, and head to the Northeast US. Another sheep year that affected the NE was 1955. 2003 kinda counts too, if we include NC and the Mid-Atlantic along with the Northeast as one group, being the north half of the eastern US seaboard. Surely there are several other years that have this, but this is one of two general patterns in most Ox & Sheep year cycles

Interestingly, 1938 and 1944 were Years of the Tiger and Monkey, respectively, both of which are opposites on the Zodiac, too. 1938/1944 featured two of the most impactful storms on record in New England. Relative to Esther and Bob, those storms were stronger and/or more intense, either in terms of MSW or MSLP or both, and were also larger in size. Esther, in particular, weakened to a TS while executing a clockwise loop just offshore. Perhaps 2021 will feature a threat to New England that delivers possible hurricane impacts, but ends up being less extreme than a similar storm in, say, a Year of the Tiger or a Year of the Monkey might be. Maybe 2021 will follow up on 2020 with a somewhat stronger version of Isaias.

Maybe this will verify with Henri

It can't verify as this stuff is fun make believe, but maybe it will happen. I know, I'm parsing words, but I want to make sure everyone here knows this is for fun as there's no actual science behind these "forecasts".

[FireRat]

Sup y'all,
Checking in on this fun thread indeed, and we do have storms to track, Fred was pretty modest most of its life until it got a little stronger prior to its FL panhandle landfall.

Henri sure is an interesting one, he seemed to come out of nowhere and oddly enough is going to curve just offshore the Northeast US like we speculated storms might want to do this year. Time will tell if this guy becomes a northeast US threat, for now the odds are very low and a miss is likely.

GRACE, is the one I'm watching more closely. It's taking that one track that makes me wonder if she will be that "Metal Ox" 1961 Carla-type storm that strengthens into a hurricane as it hits the Yucatan and enters the GOM only to strengthen even further and get very large before landfall in the western GOM. In this case, a US landfall (TX) is looking unlikely, but not very far south of there, Mexico, would be the place to watch. Something tells me it may still be a bit early for this kind of storm this year, but it's just a gut feeling.

I'm still thinking September is the month that's reserving our big Cat 4/5 this year, one that might follow a Grace-like track too but just a little further south for the Caribbean part of it's trek, and further northwest once in it's GOM part of the track.

It's cool we now have some stuff to track after that long lull after Elsa! Hopefully no one gets harmed in the process though.

[FireRat]

Henri is now a threat for New England, oh boy. Looks like they will get a cat 1, maybe a low-end 2, striking there in a few days, a major change from what was thought of a few days ago. Gonna be quite interesting to say the least.

[Shell Mound]

Maybe that potential system in the W Caribbean could be our “Carla” (1961) redux, as has been highlighted previously in this thread...

[FireRat]

Maybe that potential system in the W Caribbean could be our “Carla” (1961) redux, as has been highlighted previously in this thread...

Yea man, this one bears watching IMO, the timing would be fairly close too, with the potential system entering the GOM very late August into early September. Carla for reference struck TX on 9/11/61. This one may be about 10-11 days earlier, per the models.
Time will tell how this goes, perhaps future Ida/Julian/Kate will be a biggie.

[FireRat]

8/27/2021 - Tropical Storm Ida is now in existence south of Cuba, and near the Caymans, as it heads wnw towards the GOM. Looking like an Aug 30 landfall, perhaps late on the 29 too. Only one can hope this 'I' storm will not continue the 'I curse'

Looking at our past Ox-year seasons for reference, the storm that might fit this one the best in terms of track and maybe intensity is the 1865 hurricane that struck Louisiana as a Cat 3, that one went through the same area Ida is in currently. I can see a worst case scenario being that Ida becomes a very large and powerful hurricane like Carla '61 but with a track more like the 1865 hurricane... which is kind of like what the actual computer models are suggesting right now, but more east where the models have Ida coming ashore in Eastern LA.

Poor Louisiana really can't seem to catch a break! I hope a miracle happens and that the models bust with the intensity and Ida doesn't get strong. Keeping a close eye on this system.

[FireRat]

IDA was such a beast, holy cow!

One could say this was like a Carla but striking Louisiana instead of Texas. 2021 sure is being another extremely memorable and destructive year for the Gulf of Mexico! I hope this is it for the year as far as nasty hits, but of course things don't look too positive in the future with perhaps a wild September and possibly October.

[FireRat]

Now that Peak Season is here, I figured I'd dust off my crystal ball and have a go at what may be some highlights to come for the rest of the 2021 season, especially later in Sept and Oct. I reckon this season seems to be generally behaving like the 1961 Metal Ox year thus far, so I'm only using the past 3 Metal Ox years of 1961, 1901 and 1841, with more weight toward 1961 & 1841 due to how active this season is being thus far. The 60-year cycle might be the better one to go with this year after all. I went ahead and made the following graphic, showing the past highlights of 2021 (Ida & Grace), and showing my musings regarding the 2nd half of the 2021 season and what may come (remember this is for fun and experimentation, will be interesting to see if any future storms (besides Larry) take these tracks on the dates highlighted.



There will likely be more named storms than the lines show (my 16 NS estimate from July is in Jeopardy lol), but these are what I'm thinking could be the rest of the highlights of the 2021 season. I'm still thinking a late September or early October hurricane, maybe a Cat 2 or 3, could pass offshore the Carolinas and eastern seaboard, getting closer to the eastern US and islands than Larry did but still hopefully miss land. Bermuda might be an exception however. There is uncertainty with October's possible Caribbean storm, generally if it happens sooner it might go for Cuba/FL like the 1841 storm, but if it happens later it might try to copy Hattie from 1961.
That's it for my thoughts and crystal ball for now.

[FireRat]

60 Years Ago today...