Tropical Wave in East Atlantic: (Is invest 95L)

[aspen]

Wow this wave looks great. If the NHC hasn’t tagged it yet, there must be a reason why, so it’s possible this impressive look is just a temporary flare-up. It would be crazy if it’s already developing.

[Nimbus]

Probably 95L which we don't need, first 10 days of August fairly quiet and then two storms by the 20th?

[cycloneye]

The axis of a tropical wave is near 22W from 21N southward,
moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is from 07N to 14N between 22W and 28W.

[Stormybajan]

Wow this wave looks great. If the NHC hasn’t tagged it yet, there must be a reason why, so it’s possible this impressive look is just a temporary flare-up. It would be crazy if it’s already developing.

I'm just going to assume SAL/dry air is going to be a problem for it because if not...its looking pretty good for a lemon right now

[HurricaneEnzo]

Yeah looking real good. Gotta think this gets tagged soon. I was so caught up in Future Fred I just realized how good this wave was looking. I assumed it had poofed by now

[aspen]

Still hasn’t been given a lemon at 8am. I guess the NHC is waiting to see if it keeps up this look or winds back down.

[cycloneye]

[EquusStorm]

Feels like this should be on the TWO with support from various GFS runs and at least some of the ensembles, but could be more than five days off I guess. Very moist environment compared to many others this season so far, good curving, highly persistent convection.

[Category5Kaiju]

If not later today, I am expecting a lemon at least by the end of tomorrow. It looks very good as of now, and maybe the models are really onto something as they really seem to like this wave

[abajan]

It would be quite surprising if it doesn't get mentioned in the next TWO.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1425081723734396930

[Category5Kaiju]

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1425081723734396930

Assuming very little dry air and shear with an ULAC overhead and assuming there's little speed shear (and also given that the water temperatures, let alone upper ocean heat are more than supportive for TCs), this is certainly a concern. Best for us to worry about it down the line, but it's good to know the warning signs beforehand of what could be a potent TC sometime later this month.

[chaser1]

This area of disturbed weather is becoming increasingly impressive on Satellite. It's certainly not buried within the ITCZ (which I can't find anyway LOL). Hard to imagine this not getting tagged an invest by this evening.

[cycloneye]

GFS ensembles are enthusiastic.

[SoupBone]

Did the 12Z GFS just send this into the Carolinas? I can't zoom out, but on August 24th, it has something hitting the Carolinas.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Probably 95L which we don't need, first 10 days of August fairly quiet and then two storms by the 20th?

We always need more storms. The hunger never abates. OTS preferred however.

[InfernoFlameCat]

10/20
Here she comes!!!

[cheezyWXguy]

Did the 12Z GFS just send this into the Carolinas? I can't zoom out, but on August 24th, it has something hitting the Carolinas.

It did, odd run. Looks like it tries to fujiwara around another disturbance in the Florida straits. Gfs has a bad tendency of overdoing this effect and I discount this run even more than i normally do for long range runs

[cycloneye]

A concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms located a few
hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is associated
with a tropical wave. Some gradual development of this system is
possible over the next several days while it moves westward across
the tropical Atlantic at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[ElectricStorm]

This may end up tracking similar to PTC6 where it gets tangled up with the islands. But there's a lot of possibilities. I'm pretty confident this will become Grace and if it can avoid the islands I think it could get relatively strong. Long way to go of course.