Any Early Thoughts on the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season?

[ncforecaster89]

My first thought regarding the 2022 NATL basin hurricane season is that it’s literally still too “early” to make a legitimately skillful forecast.

That being said, I suspect a warm Neutral ENSO has the highest probability of manifesting itself during the ASO tri-monthly period of 2022. I’d list the next highest probability being a weak El Niño. The lowest probabilties corresponding with a La Niña.

Consequently, I’d currently suspect the 2022 season will likely be near-normal for ACE, or slightly-below…if a weak EL Nino arrives in time for the peak months of the season.

[Category5Kaiju]

So it's interesting to see how there seems to be roughly 3 major camps of individuals when talking about ENSO state next year: those who believe an El Nino is going to happen, those who think the ENSO state will warm but not quite reach El Nino levels and end up as warm neutral, and those who think that a failed attempt to warm to an El Nino will simply land us in cool neutral territory during peak hurricane season.

[cycloneye]

All that I have to say is that all the members are invited to participate in our annual Storm2k poll that starts on April 1. As the creator of it will have the first numbers of the list of participants and those will be my thoughts about the 2022 season.

[Gums]

Salute!

It ain't over til the fat lady sings!

We along the Gulf are hoping for a good El Nino this next season, as those seem to steer the big storms more to the Atlantic coast. Also seem to have high altitude shear to weaken the ones we have in the Gulf.

Gums sends...

[CrazyC83]

2021 felt like 2004 in some ways due to its sharp peak and quick ending. But I can't imagine another off-the-charts season two years after the last if 2005 is an analog for 2022.

As far as comparable years for the situation (with no sign of a warming): 1964, 1979, 1996 and 2005. All years that were long removed from a significant El Nino event.

[Category5Kaiju]

Given List 2 is going to be used next year and how as we saw with 1980, 1992, 1998, 2004, and 2016 all of those years featured at least one very powerful and memorable Cat 5 hurricane and with 1980, 1998, 2004, 2010, and 2016 being above average years, three of which were hyperactive, I sort of have a loose feeling that 2022 is going to be memorable in some way or another. Perhaps we'll see our first Cat 5 hurricane since 2019 then? Who knows

[wxman57]

Zero storms at all would be great, as far as I'm concerned. I did hear that the early NOAA forecast is out. They're forecasting between 6 and 42 named storms with between 2 and 18 hurricanes, 0-9 of which could be majors.

[Nuno]

Zero storms at all would be great, as far as I'm concerned. I did hear that the early NOAA forecast is out. They're forecasting between 6 and 42 named storms with between 2 and 18 hurricanes, 0-9 of which could be majors.

Probably for your line of work, yeah it would be boring for the 99% on s2k who enjoy tracking and process of cyclone genesis.

Is there anyone here on the forum who can shed light on the impact volcanic activity could have on the tropics? Between Indonesia and La Palma, there seems to have been unusual volcanic activity that could be a factor in the early end to last season and potentially an effect into 2022?

[Yellow Evan]

Zero storms at all would be great, as far as I'm concerned. I did hear that the early NOAA forecast is out. They're forecasting between 6 and 42 named storms with between 2 and 18 hurricanes, 0-9 of which could be majors.

Probably for your line of work, yeah it would be boring for the 99% on s2k who enjoy tracking and process of cyclone genesis.

Is there anyone here on the forum who can shed light on the impact volcanic activity could have on the tropics? Between Indonesia and La Palma, there seems to have been unusual volcanic activity that could be a factor in the early end to last season and potentially an effect into 2022?

You’d need a very strong volcanic eruption (VEI 5-6 or greater) to seriously affect the atmospheric climate in the short to medium term. The most recent case of this possibly happening was the 1991 Pinatubo eruption likely contributing to quasi-El Niño that lasted up until 1995.

[SFLcane]

Soooo…

Cánsips hinting at another potentially active season next year but enso is a wild card.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Soooo…

Cánsips hinting at another potentially active season next year but enso is a wild card.

https://i.postimg.cc/9QhnWZt6/0805-CA27-2959-4-FE4-BA55-4-D33-BDFA3686.jpg

https://i.postimg.cc/bJWm4twF/053-AF4-D2-DC51-47-D8-A2-FA-42-AD317-B2110.jpg

Hmm it seems that the climo is leaning towards a more northern track for tropical waves than this year. So more Caribbean storms may be in play. Yet it’s so far out it’s hard to put much faith in that. Interesting nonetheless.

[Shell Mound]

I think that a hyperactive season is extremely unlikely. Most of the seasons since 2016 have been only slightly above average in terms of ACE. Most have seen fairly tame CV seasons, aside from 2017 and 2021. With climate change resulting in a warmer subtropics, the tropical Atlantic will continue to struggle with stability and TUTTs, regardless of ENSO, PMM, PDO, or IOD. 2020 was actually somewhat underwhelming in terms of ACE, given the extremely favourable oceanic-atmospheric configuration, as reflected in the background state. 2021 also underperformed to some extent. I think global warming will make truly hyperactive seasons harder to come by, given a quieter MDR.

[Teban54]

I think that a hyperactive season is extremely unlikely. Most of the seasons since 2016 have been only slightly above average in terms of ACE. Most have seen fairly tame CV seasons, aside from 2017 and 2021. With climate change resulting in a warmer subtropics, the tropical Atlantic will continue to struggle with stability and TUTTs, regardless of ENSO, PMM, PDO, or IOD. 2020 was actually somewhat underwhelming in terms of ACE, given the extremely favourable oceanic-atmospheric configuration, as reflected in the background state. 2021 also underperformed to some extent. I think global warming will make truly hyperactive seasons harder to come by, given a quieter MDR.

I think factors such as stability and TUTT are extremely hard to tell half a year in advance.

These claims are made every year at this point. 2017, 2020, and 2021 before September showed they don't always make sense.