Tropical Wave moving over the Yucatan (Is invest 99L)

[jaguars_22]

Models starting to come into better agreement that this wave will move further north into south Texas possibly. If we don’t get rain in the middle Texas coast from this we could miss out on all the rain Texas is supposed to get. It could stay north and south of central Texas and mid Texas coast!

[SoupBone]

The GFS has a Tex/Mex landfall, but it doesn't look like a ton of rain associated with it.

[Cpv17]

The GFS has a Tex/Mex landfall, but it doesn't look like a ton of rain associated with it.

At the very least I’m hoping we here in southeast Texas can knock off 5 degrees for the afternoon temps by the end of the week into next week.

[wxman57]

The GFS has a Tex/Mex landfall, but it doesn't look like a ton of rain associated with it.

Yeah, GFS, EC, and Canadian all are predicting less than an inch of rain near the TX/MX border out of the weak low. Nothing for SE Texas. However, another weak front may drop south across SE Texas on Thu/Fri, producing an inch or more of rain.

[SoupBone]

The GFS has a Tex/Mex landfall, but it doesn't look like a ton of rain associated with it.

Yeah, GFS, EC, and Canadian all are predicting less than an inch of rain near the TX/MX border out of the weak low. Nothing for SE Texas. However, another weak front may drop south across SE Texas on Thu/Fri, producing an inch or more of rain.

I'll take that again. The last one was great for me, got over 2" from it. That GFS is concerning though in the 10-day range with a system entering the GoM.

[weeniepatrol]

12z ec

[Nimbus]

The GFS has a Tex/Mex landfall, but it doesn't look like a ton of rain associated with it.

Yeah, GFS, EC, and Canadian all are predicting less than an inch of rain near the TX/MX border out of the weak low. Nothing for SE Texas. However, another weak front may drop south across SE Texas on Thu/Fri, producing an inch or more of rain.

I'll take that again. The last one was great for me, got over 2" from it. That GFS is concerning though in the 10-day range with a system entering the GoM.

There was the 1010 mb low at hour 264 on the 12z GFS south of NOLA.
A couple days ago I mentioned the wave forecast to cross Barbados at 1010 tomorrow or Thursday but its pretty shallow pressure gradient wise. But if a 1013 low can lift convection in the western Caribbean than a 1010 might actually start to circulate and enter the gulf closer to the Yucatan channel.

[jaguars_22]

Looking good that this is not going to be a Texas threat! I’m hoping we get some rain from the front though!!

[SoupBone]

The latest GFS looks like it would actually bring Houston some rain.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue Aug 16 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A tropical wave over Nicaragua is forecast to move across Central
America during the next few days and emerge over the Bay of
Campeche, where an area of low pressure could form on Friday.
Some gradual development of this system is possible while it moves
northwestward over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico through the
weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Pasch

[weeniepatrol]

[Hammy]

Upper environment looks perfect, right now it seems more of a question of whether it'll make it to water or slip too far south and west.

[Nimbus]

Upper environment looks perfect, right now it seems more of a question of whether it'll make it to water or slip too far south and west.

There is an upper level anticyclonic circulation in the gulf of Mexico pulling moisture up into the Gulf of Honduras.
GOH is a little north of the model track but convection there might keep the surface pressures down in the area.

[skyline385]

Upper environment looks perfect, right now it seems more of a question of whether it'll make it to water or slip too far south and west.

There is an upper level anticyclonic circulation in the gulf of Mexico pulling moisture up into the Gulf of Honduras.
GOH is a little north of the model track but convection there might keep the surface pressures down in the area.

Looks to me like the trough is also helping its outflow along with the favorable upper divergence over it.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1559700420850851841

[zzh]

Shear is not a problem in this case with an ULAC over the wave.

[NDG]

Upper environment looks perfect, right now it seems more of a question of whether it'll make it to water or slip too far south and west.

Models have been trending further north away from land interaction in the BOC.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

https://i.imgur.com/TceSTuu.gif
Shear is not a problem in this case with an ULAC over the wave.

Yeah the upper levels look favorable for this one. Main issue will be land interaction and/or time. Seems to have a 36-48 hour window in the Western Gulf, need to see how well it takes advantage of the time it has given it doesn't run into Mexico before then.

[Steve]

GFS has the coming up track as opposed to the backing west low 98l was. Looks like more drought relief in NE Mexico and STX in that run. Early rainfall will easily be underestimated in that model scenario if there’s a system there. The only thing you’d think would limit is if there is a competing system close to Mexico.

[skyline385]

Its looking good but the circulation seems to be very lacking and unless it quickly somehow develops a MLC, the low level steering is going to push it inland as predicted by most models.