Discussion About Changing the Start of the Atlantic Hurricane Season to May (15th)

[TheStormExpert]

With Arthur now being our sixth year in a row with at least one named storm prior to June 1st this makes me wonder why the NHC hasn’t taken into consideration of potentially bumping the start date of the Atlantic Hurricane Season to at least May 15th since this is becoming a normal occurrence.

I know most of these pre-season storms started out Subtropical in nature but what’s everyone else’s thoughts?

Here are the pre-season storms development dates dating back to when the streak began in 2015.

2015: TS Ana (May 8th)
2016: Hurricane Alex (January 12th) TS Bonnie (May 27th)
2017: TS Arlene (April 19th)
2018: TS Alberto (May 25th)
2019: STS Andrea (May 20th)
2020: TS Arthur (May 16th)

[GeneratorPower]

Maybe we should call it Tropical Storm season. Not really a hurricane risk in May. That seems more important.

[TheStormExpert]

Maybe we should call it Tropical Storm season. Not really a hurricane risk in May. That seems more important.

Yeah but you rarely see any hurricanes in June or even November for that matter. The reason it’s called “Hurricane Season” is to keep people on guard and prepared during those months.

[toad strangler]

Historically since 1851 a pre June storm as developed on average every 5.63 years. Even before this streak started the number was every 6.83 years ... not rare at all.

[TheStormExpert]

Historically since 1851 a pre June storm as developed on average every 5.63 years. Even before this streak started the number was every 6.83 years ... not rare at all.

In fact since they’ve began naming Subtropical Cyclones in the Atlantic back in 2002 the odds have drastically increased it seems.

[Yellow Evan]

Because hurricane season is trending earlier and it's only a matter of time before one of these pre-season storms creates larger scale havoc, it makes sense to adjust hurricane season forward.

[chaser1]

Couldn't agree more. I'd go with staring Hurricane Season May 15; heck I'd even go as early as May 1st. It doesn't really matter whether one argues that there's an increase number of weak "garbage storms" developing prior to June 1st, or data suggests an increased risk of a strong T.S. or minimal hurricane before June 1, or that the NHC has simply broadened their criteria for naming sub-tropical or tropical systems over the past 20 or so years. Who really cares "why"? Fact is, the entire concept of having a Hurricane Season is to alert those potentially at risk that they need be aware that we have entered that climatological period where tropical cyclones could reasonably develop and impact them. For those who might suggest.... "well, we're not talking about that many storms forming prior to June 1 and nearly all are too weak to worry about", then why not simply start the Atlantic Season August 1st instead?

[hcane27]

Seems as though we really don’t need a “hurricane” season. Everyone who lives north of Tennessee doesn’t need a “blizzard” season to know that hard winter-type storms come in winter. Those who live on the east and Gulf coasts know that tropical storms occur between May and November.
You prepare for the possibilities wherever you live , or at least you should , without having to be told to do so. Unless you live under a rock or in a cave. Then it truly doesn’t matter anyway.

[psyclone]

Seems as though we really don’t need a “hurricane” season. Everyone who lives north of Tennessee doesn’t need a “blizzard” season to know that hard winter-type storms come in winter. Those who live on the east and Gulf coasts know that tropical storms occur between May and November.
You prepare for the possibilities wherever you live , or at least you should , without having to be told to do so. Unless you live under a rock or in a cave. Then it truly doesn’t matter anyway.

I like your answer the best. The vast majority of storms fall within the "season" as is. In fact, most storms already fall within a defined period of the existing season (August-October). We have a threshold for svr watches too...so they don't become meaningless. Meso discussions will frequently acknowledge a severe risk but decline a watch owing to a limited risk. It seems like the same concept is at work here. I would leave it as is.

[toad strangler]

Seems as though we really don’t need a “hurricane” season. Everyone who lives north of Tennessee doesn’t need a “blizzard” season to know that hard winter-type storms come in winter. Those who live on the east and Gulf coasts know that tropical storms occur between May and November.
You prepare for the possibilities wherever you live , or at least you should , without having to be told to do so. Unless you live under a rock or in a cave. Then it truly doesn’t matter anyway.

No way. You have to have a season. What's next? Getting rid of clocks?

[psyclone]

Seems as though we really don’t need a “hurricane” season. Everyone who lives north of Tennessee doesn’t need a “blizzard” season to know that hard winter-type storms come in winter. Those who live on the east and Gulf coasts know that tropical storms occur between May and November.
You prepare for the possibilities wherever you live , or at least you should , without having to be told to do so. Unless you live under a rock or in a cave. Then it truly doesn’t matter anyway.

No way. You have to have a season. What's next? Getting rid of clocks?

You have a great point there. It seems like if the defined season encompasses that vast majority of storms (it does as is) then it is working just fine.

[CrazyC83]

The funny thing was that in the 1980s and 1990s, there were very few pre-season storms, however, from the 1970s and farther back, the reanalysis has discovered a fairly large number of pre-season storms. Maybe we're just back to normal.

[gatorcane]

Yes I would go with May 15th.

[CyclonicFury]

I wouldn't be opposed to it, but I honestly doubt the NHC would do it unless there was a landfalling May hurricane.

[Hammy]

Seems as though we really don’t need a “hurricane” season. Everyone who lives north of Tennessee doesn’t need a “blizzard” season to know that hard winter-type storms come in winter. Those who live on the east and Gulf coasts know that tropical storms occur between May and November.
You prepare for the possibilities wherever you live , or at least you should , without having to be told to do so. Unless you live under a rock or in a cave. Then it truly doesn’t matter anyway.

Seasons have a function on how the advisories and updates are issued. Outside of hurricane season you don't have the tropical weather outlook for example, and it functions similarly to frost and planting season--during certain parts of the year depending on where you are, frost/freeze advisories are not issued as colder temperatures are expected at that point.

Otherwise we may as well just get rid of seasons entirely, including spring summer fall and winter.

[GSBHurricane]

I would say not only change it to May 15 but add X, Y, and Z to the Atlantic naming lists too.

[CyclonicFury]

I would say not only change it to May 15 but add X, Y, and Z to the Atlantic naming lists too.

I don't think that is necessary. It would take 22 named storms to reach the X name. The Atlantic has only ever exceeded 21 tropical storms once, in 2005.

[GSBHurricane]

I would say not only change it to May 15 but add X, Y, and Z to the Atlantic naming lists too.

I don't think that is necessary. It would take 22 named storms to reach the X name. The Atlantic has only ever exceeded 21 tropical storms once, in 2005.

To be fair, the EPAC has only made it past W only three times (1985, 1992, and 2018), with only 1992 utilizing all three letters. I only suggested to add X, Y, and Z in order to directly mirror the EPAC.

[gfsperpendicular]

What about making it May 15 - November 15? That way, we don't stretch out the season too much. And that May stretch is arguably more deserving: The last half of November has only seen three storms over the past decade: Melissa '13, Otto '16, and Rebekah '19. Meanwhile, the last ten Mays have seen six storms: Alberto '12, Beryl '12, Bonnie '16, Alberto '18, Andrea '19, and Arthur '20. Just based off the numbers, the latter half of May seems more worthy of inclusion than the latter half of November.

Now, Otto was much stronger than any of the May storms and much more impactful, which can't be ignored. Still, Otto was very much an anomaly.

[CyclonicFury]

Something I have always found odd is, why does the central Pacific start on June 1 instead of July 1? I cannot think of a single June CPAC tropical cyclone. ATL systems in the second half of May are MUCH more common than CPAC systems in June.