Potential development over the Western Caribbean Sea (Is Invest 99L)

[WaveBreaking]

Since models show this wave playing a part in the possible CAG storm, I’ll post this here.

All hurricane models for 98L eventually snap over to the Caribbean disturbance and show it starting off as a broad, monsoonal disturbance with an abnormally low pressure for its winds and near-perfect upper-lever conditions. This setup reminds me a lot of Wilma’s genesis imo.








They also show this storm moving slowly due to two 500 mbar ridges sandwiching the low and thus causing weak steering currents with no nearby troughs to lift it N.



Obviously, this is far out on the hurricane models, and this disturbance doesn’t have its own hurricane model runs, but I think it’s worth mentioning since there is a clear signal here.

[AJC3]

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun Nov 10 2024

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 66W from near Puerto
Rico southward into central Venezuela. It is moving westward
around 5 kt. Being enhanced by divergent winds aloft, numerous
heavy showers and scattered thunderstorms are occurring across the
northeastern and east-central Caribbean Sea, and near the ABC
Islands. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen
from northern Puerto Rico northward to 21N.

[MarioProtVI]

Round 2.

1. Southwestern Caribbean Sea:
A broad area of low pressure will likely form over the southwestern
Caribbean Sea in a few days. Some slow development is possible
after that time while the system drifts westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

[SFLcane]

Gefs surely has been persistent threatening Cuba and then SFL.

[aspen]

Gefs surely has been persistent threatening Cuba and then SFL.

https://i.postimg.cc/jqXLm8rD/IMG-9737.gif

Rafael 2.0 for Cuba. Wonder if this too could become a November major and pump the numbers to 18/12/6 and 170-175 ACE.

This late season has been insane, only surpassed by 2020.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1855772050432180668

[MarioProtVI]

00z Euro just went nuclear on this with a complete 180 from 12z. Now has a major striking Cuba and gets way too close to the Keys STILL as a major or so (upper 960s). Any closer and that could be one of the latest U.S. TCs to make landfall on record and probably coming close to knocking off another record from Kate 1985.

[AJC3]

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Mon Nov 11 2024

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 68W from the Mona
Passage southward into central Venezuela. It is moving westward
at 5 to 10 kt. Enhanced by a diffluent pattern aloft, scattered
heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring at the
northern-central Caribbean, including the eastern Dominican
Republic, Mona Passage, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico.

[cycloneye]

00z European goes very bullish.

[SFLcane]

This is now getting real… Stay tuned SFL!

[boca]

This is now getting real… Stay tuned SFL!

Up to 40% now.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 AM EST Mon Nov 11 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Western Caribbean Sea:
A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the western
Caribbean Sea during the next couple of days. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this
system thereafter, and a tropical depression could form late this
week or this weekend while moving slowly westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

[wzrgirl1]

Went from 20-40% overnight. That says a lot. Hopefully OTS though.

[DESTRUCTION5]

This is now getting real… Stay tuned SFL!

06z GFS pushes back the outdoor Xmas decorations for sure in S FL.

[tolakram]

Jeepers.

Time for an invest IMO, the Euro signal is almost identical to the GFS which is almost identical to the ICON.

[xironman]

Looking at the 850 vorticity on the models it looks like this area gets drawn into the CAG to help spark genesis. Nice sharp trough. Pretty unusual to have two majors in the Atlantic Basin in Nov.

[gatorcane]

06Z GFS

[kevin]

Here's a list of hurricanes which have made landfall in southern Florida from the west in November/December:
*

No that's not a typo, there is no historical precedence for this. The only thing close would be Kate 1985, which made landfall in the Panhandle as a cat 2. Despite all of the craziness so far this season such as Beryl and Milton, this potential late-season November hurricane might end up becoming the most anomalous storm of the season.

[kevin]

Strong signal in the 00z Euro ensemble. 40 out of 51 members (78%) develop the system in the next 120 hours. Of these systems roughly 20% bury into CA, 50% landfall on Cuba/Jamaica/Haiti (including some sub-940 mb members) and the remaining 30% impact the US or are on their way to impact the US at the end of the run. Clean OTS members don't really seem to be present in the ensemble.

[kevin]

Once the system comes north of Cuba it's a matter of time before it weakens, so I expect the only scenario for a strong hurricane landfall in the US would be a fast-moving system. But before that the waters in the WCar are plenty warm to support anything up to a strong cat 5.