Area of Interest Near the Southeast U.S. Coast (Is invest 92L)

[TampaWxLurker]

Alternatively, if the front stalls out and we get a week of rain/weak circulation over the far eastern Gulf, it'll go a long way to cooling off those SST's. The gulf immediately off the West Coast of Fl is fairly shallow and tends to cool off quickly (and vice versa).

[WeatherBoy2000]

Alternatively, if the front stalls out and we get a week of rain/weak circulation over the far eastern Gulf, it'll go a long way to cooling off those SST's. The gulf immediately off the West Coast of Fl is fairly shallow and tends to cool off quickly (and vice versa).

Ssts should cool off no matter what happens, whether a storm develops and takes advantage of the abnormally warm ssts currently in place as well is the real question.

[StPeteMike]

There’s a decent looking spinning just on the coast of Pasco County, near Port Richey. You can definitely see it on the local radars. Looks to be slowly moving onto land, but do wonder if this is what will eventually be what some of the models are picking up.

[Stormlover70]

There’s a decent looking spinning just on the coast of Pasco County, near Port Richey. You can definitely see it on the local radars. Looks to be slowly moving onto land, but do wonder if this is what will eventually be what some of the models are picking up.

there is spin over the gulf too. I think something will get going near the Big Bend. Accoring to the forecast heavy rain up and down west coast.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1939706665898516611

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

1. Near the Southeastern U.S.:
A frontal boundary is expected to stall and weaken off the southeast
U.S. coast late this week. An area of low pressure could develop
from the weakening front by the weekend off the southeast U.S., over
Florida, or over the eastern Gulf. Some gradual tropical or
subtropical development could occur thereafter as the low moves
little.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.



Forecaster Blake

[BobHarlem]

All the operation 12z models have backed off on development. (Although the canadian has something east of NC from it later) 12z GEFS Ensembles have dropped off a cliff from earlier runs.

[Stratton23]

We wait in a remain and see pattern, the overnight runs could flip again, 00z GFS didnt show anything, 06z GFS had a stronger surface low, 12z didnt, models runs are wildly inconsistent across the board

[floridasun]

this look like more rain maker

[Pas_Bon]

Tampa Bay Area in for a drenching this week.

They need it.

[Nimbus]

this look like more rain maker

Surface pressures are still high in the eastern gulf 30:11+ but with the front stalled over the gulf that could change over time if there is persistent convection.

[Nimbus]

Looks like an upper level low off the Southeast coast is producing too much shear for development there unless it transforms to a warm core system? Low shear right at the center.

[Javlin]

I am using Frank P's weather seeing he's about 1/4 mile straight out front of me we are @1.5" for the day...rain is nice.

[Jr0d]

Alternatively, if the front stalls out and we get a week of rain/weak circulation over the far eastern Gulf, it'll go a long way to cooling off those SST's. The gulf immediately off the West Coast of Fl is fairly shallow and tends to cool off quickly (and vice versa).

Ssts should cool off no matter what happens, whether a storm develops and takes advantage of the abnormally warm ssts currently in place as well is the real question.

Offshore winds will cause upwelling...so regardless of development persistent Offshore winds will cool of the near shore waters.

I do remember a few times decades ago in June/July on the east coast of Florida with persistent SW winds causing upswelling and the beach water being in the low 70s...

[TallyTracker]

The system that may develop isn’t the current area of storms. The upper low is still shearing everything.

The front won’t reach the Gulf Coast until Thursday. By then, presumably conditions may be more favorable for a tropical cyclone to form.
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/nav_conus_pmsl.php?fday=3&fcolor=ter

By Saturday, the WPC surface analysis shows a non-tropical frontal low over the central Gulf.
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/nav_conus_pmsl.php?fday=5&fcolor=ter

On Sunday, the WPC has it drifting slowly northwestward toward the Central Gulf Coast. I don’t know how accurate these maps are, but I’d imagine the large scale synopsis is reasonable. The details such as the development of a low and subsequent movements are likely very uncertain.
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/nav_conus_pmsl.php?fday=6&fcolor=ter

[BobHarlem]

0z models are back but off the southeast coast now. Euro showing something else near Bermuda as well in a week.

[Stratton23]

Models try to split the low into two bundles of energy, one in the gulf and one off the se coast , very difficult to know which area will win out, but it seems we have some competition lol

[GCANE]

ICON develops this off the coast near JAX on Friday.

[GCANE]

According to latest GFS, vorts will develop over the weekend from surface to 250mb. How well they will stack depends on the degree of convection. Looking more and more likely we will have a TC over the weekend.

[Nimbus]

According to latest GFS, vorts will develop over the weekend from surface to 250mb. How well they will stack depends on the degree of convection. Looking more and more likely we will have a TC over the weekend.

"Over the weekend"?
If it happens that soon the ULL near the Southeast coast will need to go warm core, too much shear otherwise. I could see the split front scenario next week with development near or north of the latitude of Bermuda.

The low that might develop in the gulf will likely be a piece of energy that we can track dropping down across the coast near NOLA as some intense thunderstorms. After the thunderstorms go stationary we can watch the surface pressures at the buoys to save C130 fuel.