Tropical Wave ESE of Lesser Antilles

[tropicwatch]

Upper level wind shear is looking pretty good this morning. Now it needs convection

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=shr&zoom=&time=

[TomballEd]

Upper level wind shear is looking pretty good this morning. Now it needs convection

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=shr&zoom=&time=

Looking at the 200 mb U anomaly initialization and forecast, the disturbance is a tiny area of rising air surrounded by a large area of sinking. I'm not particularly well versed in it but it appears the Atlantic is not yet in a favorable phase for MDR development.

[abajan]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Jul 20 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located about 1000 miles east-southeast of the
Lesser Antilles continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear only marginally
conducive for development during the next day or so while the system
moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. By the middle of the
week, environmental conditions are forecast to become unfavorable
for further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch