Northwestern Gulf Area of Interest

[Stratton23]

Im almost rooting for this to become a depression, those rain fall totals are laughably pathetic for a tropical disturbance , at least a weak but more organized “ system” would bring more healthier totals

[USTropics]

500 mb and 850 mb maxes at landfall on Euro are not quite as far apart on 'landfall' of the 850 and 500 mb vort maxes, but they are still not aligned. Again, the system is moving just behind a more favorable area of shear but it experiencing enough shear not to organize,

Still bringing PW well over 2 inches, Port O'Connor right at 2.5 inches 18Z Friday per GFS. About an inch of rain in SETX per Euro, GFS and ensembles. I was expecting more.

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Globals have maintained all week long that the rain will stay offshore. Don’t see much making it inland.

WPC agrees with you. See my comment above about 93L.
https://i.imgur.com/3JjEtbh.png

A lot of cool processes going on right now, but the environment is just not suitable for development. This was 8PM ET last night, and that's when I thought we might have some sort of consolidation at the surface:


Flash forward 15 hours later, and this is just looking more like a trough axis now:


This is mainly because we have competing flows at different levels of the atmosphere (shear). The upper-levels is being dominated right now by that oppressive high pressure system over the Tennessee area:


Compare that to the flow at the lower-levels. Any system would have to stay in front of the trough axis like you said (essentially over land), or it gets completely torn apart:


I do want to key in on that 500mb vort max you mentioned. Here is its current position SE of Florida:


This is being 'bullied' and dictated to by the upper-level low in the western Caribbean that is sliding westward towards the Yucatan peninsula:


Net result is, the system remains severely sheared and stretched out. The moisture profile will remain with the mid-levels, which will be dragged southward by the 500mb vort and the trough axis. I'd still expect decent rainfall along the coastal regions of Louisiana and into Texas though (not too different then the tropical waves/moisture these regions get every ~5-7 days) and some (much welcomed I am sure) cooler temps:

[Stratton23]

We may not get much rainfall at all inland, such a bust of a disturbance, wasted

[TomballEd]

Globals have maintained all week long that the rain will stay offshore. Don’t see much making it inland.

WPC agrees with you. See my comment above about 93L.
https://i.imgur.com/3JjEtbh.png

A lot of cool processes going on right now, but the environment is just not suitable for development. This was 8PM ET last night, and that's when I thought we might have some sort of consolidation at the surface:
https://i.imgur.com/Sjz5dMq.gif

Flash forward 15 hours later, and this is just looking more like a trough axis now:
https://i.imgur.com/03VQOJL.gif

This is mainly because we have competing flows at different levels of the atmosphere (shear). The upper-levels is being dominated right now by that oppressive high pressure system over the Tennessee area:
https://i.imgur.com/wHDlunj.png

Compare that to the flow at the lower-levels. Any system would have to stay in front of the trough axis like you said (essentially over land), or it gets completely torn apart:
https://i.imgur.com/g7NAfd2.png

I do want to key in on that 500mb vort max you mentioned. Here is its current position SE of Florida:
https://i.imgur.com/1nA9LH5.gif

This is being 'bullied' and dictated to by the upper-level low in the western Caribbean that is sliding westward towards the Yucatan peninsula:
https://i.imgur.com/IbJOYKz.gif

Net result is, the system remains severely sheared and stretched out. The moisture profile will remain with the mid-levels, which will be dragged southward by the 500mb vort and the trough axis. I'd still expect decent rainfall along the coastal regions of Louisiana and into Texas though (not too different then the tropical waves/moisture these regions get every ~5-7 days) and some (much welcomed I am sure) cooler temps:
https://i.imgur.com/KtxkNZu.gif

The Euro was more favorable earlier but even then the max 500 mb vorticity was well separated from the 850 and 700 mb max vorticity and those were not aligned. The lemon stays just SE of what would be favorable shear today on the models.

I'm just puzzled as to why daytime heating won't be able to do, rainfall wise, with PWAT well over 2 inches no matter what shear was doing. 10% was based on yesterday's Euro ensembles best I can tell. Ensemble members liking this on the Euro has been dropping, I suspect 12Z ensembles continues the trend. GFS ensembles have never been enthusiastic.

[USTropics]

WPC agrees with you. See my comment above about 93L.
https://i.imgur.com/3JjEtbh.png

A lot of cool processes going on right now, but the environment is just not suitable for development. This was 8PM ET last night, and that's when I thought we might have some sort of consolidation at the surface:
https://i.imgur.com/Sjz5dMq.gif

Flash forward 15 hours later, and this is just looking more like a trough axis now:
https://i.imgur.com/03VQOJL.gif

This is mainly because we have competing flows at different levels of the atmosphere (shear). The upper-levels is being dominated right now by that oppressive high pressure system over the Tennessee area:
https://i.imgur.com/wHDlunj.png

Compare that to the flow at the lower-levels. Any system would have to stay in front of the trough axis like you said (essentially over land), or it gets completely torn apart:
https://i.imgur.com/g7NAfd2.png

I do want to key in on that 500mb vort max you mentioned. Here is its current position SE of Florida:
https://i.imgur.com/1nA9LH5.gif

This is being 'bullied' and dictated to by the upper-level low in the western Caribbean that is sliding westward towards the Yucatan peninsula:
https://i.imgur.com/IbJOYKz.gif

Net result is, the system remains severely sheared and stretched out. The moisture profile will remain with the mid-levels, which will be dragged southward by the 500mb vort and the trough axis. I'd still expect decent rainfall along the coastal regions of Louisiana and into Texas though (not too different then the tropical waves/moisture these regions get every ~5-7 days) and some (much welcomed I am sure) cooler temps:
https://i.imgur.com/KtxkNZu.gif

The Euro was more favorable earlier but even then the max 500 mb vorticity was well separated from the 850 and 700 mb max vorticity and those were not aligned. The lemon stays just SE of what would be favorable shear today on the models.

I'm just puzzled as to why daytime heating won't be able to do, rainfall wise, with PWAT well over 2 inches no matter what shear was doing. 10% was based on yesterday's Euro ensembles best I can tell. Ensemble members liking this on the Euro has been dropping, I suspect 12Z ensembles continues the trend. GFS ensembles have never been enthusiastic.

I'd also mention that the WPC graphic posted for rainfall was issued at ~6AM ET this morning (so mostly 00z model data from yesterday). Following the trend of the past 4 model runs, I would adjust the precip profile a bit more north for LA (which I'm sure WPC will do next advisory):

[underthwx]

We may not get much rainfall at all inland, such a bust of a disturbance, wasted

From what I read on NWS Houston/Galveston forecast discussion, and a couple others along the gulf coast, it seems like the higher pops may be found along the coastal sections of the upper Texas and Louisiana coasts?

[Stratton23]

underthwx yup, coastal counties might see a few inches, inland, good luck seeing maybe an inch , and that maybe generous

[floridasun]

dont need texas get more rain

[TomballEd]

dont need texas get more rain

Depends where in Texas. Houston area isn't dry, but inverted troughs under the heat ridge and clouds/rain is what saved us from 100F until yesterday and what should end the current mini-heat wave here Friday/Saturday, even if shower/storm coverage isn't very high.

[Cpv17]

dont need texas get more rain

Depends where in Texas. Houston area isn't dry, but inverted troughs under the heat ridge and clouds/rain is what saved us from 100F until yesterday and what should end the current mini-heat wave here Friday/Saturday, even if shower/storm coverage isn't very high.

I could definitely use a couple inches here in Wharton County. 3 would even be fine.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Jul 24 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

1. North-Central Gulf:
A trough of low pressure over the north-central Gulf is currently
producing a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Over the next day or two, this system is forecast to move generally
westward across the north-central portion of the Gulf where some
slow development is possible. By this weekend, the system is likely
to move inland, ending its chances for development. Regardless of
tropical cyclone formation, locally heavy rainfall is possible for
portions of the northern Gulf coast through this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.



Forecaster Kelly

[Pas_Bon]

dont need texas get more rain

Hill Country, not at all.

Rest of Texas (especially Big Bend area) could use a soaking.

[jaguars_22]

Man this lemon really was a lemon! Ill take the cloud cover anyday though!

[Tailgater33]

The low level vorticity has increased a good bit, might have increase chances if it fights off the shear and stays over water longer

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Jul 25 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Northwestern Gulf:
A broad area of low pressure located about 100 miles south of the
coast of southwestern Louisiana continues to produce disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. This system is moving west-northwestward
toward the Texas coast, and it has limited time to develop before it
moves inland tonight. Regardless of formation, locally heavy
rainfall is likely over portions of the northwestern Gulf coast
during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi