NHC discussion at 5 pm in full (deserves own thread)-SCARY!

[wrkh99]

A PATTERN LIKE THAT CAN OFTENTIMES LEAD TO
RAPID OR EXPLOSIVE DEEPENING

[Colin]

I'm not getting even slightly scared yet, but it does bare watching!! :o Thanks for all the updates guys!

[weatherlover427]

I wonder why forecasters would say "oh IMO this system is gonna be at 28.5N and 83W at day 5 so let me put the day 5 plot there". That is way too risky. They should forecast based on the model guidance and not WTHeck they feel or think will happen.

[zoeyann]

questions- The direction given is west to WNW, but she appears to be going more north than anything, is this an optical illusion sometimes incountered when looking at these loops? It is still very warm out there won't there be enough time for the water to heat back up at least a bit ahead of her?

[GulfBreezer]

I think it is safe to say that Isabel will be a major hurricane. This is time to start talking about another Andrew, Camile, or Hugo.

Now, why would we start talking about those storms?? Isabel is the one we are tracking! Talking about those storms only brings out panic and Isabel is days and days away. No need for mass panic at this stage I dont think! Geez, relax everyone and watch, that storm is not close enough to land to warrant this reaction. This looks like a (another board) thread! Get it together and try to act proffessional. If I have hurt someone's feelings.......I apologize!

[Coriolis2003]

I think it is safe to say that Isabel will be a major hurricane. This is time to start talking about another Andrew, Camile, or Hugo.

Now, why would we start talking about those storms?? Isabel is the one we are tracking! Talking about those storms only brings out panic and Isabel is days and days away. No need for mass panic at this stage I dont think! Geez, relax everyone and watch, that storm is not close enough to land to warrant this reaction. This looks like a (another board) thread! Get it together and try to act proffessional. If I have hurt someone's feelings.......I apologize!

[ColdFront77]

I wonder why forecasters would say "oh IMO this system is gonna be at 28.5N and 83W at day 5 so let me put the day 5 plot there". That is way too risky. They should forecast based on the model guidance and not WTHeck they feel or think will happen.

Weather forecasters do forecast based on the model guidance... they don't and shouldn't exclusive use the model guidance, because it is just that, guidance. Each future model run compared with the last ones are important as well.

[Hyperstorm]

I wonder why forecasters would say "oh IMO this system is gonna be at 28.5N and 83W at day 5 so let me put the day 5 plot there". That is way too risky. They should forecast based on the model guidance and not WTHeck they feel or think will happen.

Hey, everyone! Well, they have to forecast what they think is most likely at the moment. The reason I say this is because if they made a forecast 5 days out based only on models, they would have 10 different points in the map during that time. Even professional forecasters have to use their own experience from past storms and sometimes a little bit of their gut feeling to predict the future movement.

[Rainband]

I wonder why forecasters would say "oh IMO this system is gonna be at 28.5N and 83W at day 5 so let me put the day 5 plot there". That is way too risky. They should forecast based on the model guidance and not WTHeck they feel or think will happen.

Hey, everyone! Well, they have to forecast what they think is most likely at the moment. The reason I say this is because if they made a forecast 5 days out based only on models, they would have 10 different points in the map during that time. Even professional forecasters have to use their own experience from past storms and sometimes a little bit of their gut feeling to predict the future movement.

LOVE THE AVATAR!!!!!!!!!!! Welcome to S2K!!!!!!

[Hyperstorm]

Thank you, Rainband! Yeah, that's Hurricane Floyd in 1999. I found it someplace online a while back and decided to put it. It is pretty cool.

Thanks again for the welcome and look forward to some interesting discussions!