Moving West

#21 Postby **Steve Cosby** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 3:41 pm

Floridacane wrote:This is a good water vapor loop... I see a wnw movement on this one.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

Notice how the ridge area to the northeast is driving south while that strong upper low just off the Georgia coast is heading north?

That all fits with the general track consensus.

#22 Postby **Air Force Met** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 3:49 pm

It's a longwave trough. It's not a shortwave. Also...remember...it is also how the high is going to orient itself. It is not an E-W high by that time...but a N-S high. The flow at 200mb also shows it will not be a cat 5 if it tries to head to Florida...it will get sheared.

It's about steering flow. Cat 5's go with flow just like Cat 1's. They can make their own environment to an extent...but a longwave trough has MUCH more energy than a dozen Cat 5's going off at once. It also makes a diff since the longwave trof is digging south of the center. it is not a mtter of will it catch it. It will. There is no doubt. IN every NHC discussion you have every read...if there was ever a doubt...you have heard them say it. There is no doubt it will be caught. The only doubt is when will it be caught. Will it be caught and go into SC...or NC upwards into Long ISland...or into the ocean.

Can the models be wrong? Yes. However...when they start to ALL say the same thing....this far out...3-5 days...I've never seen them make an error that would mean that they said NC and it went into FLorida. I've never seen that happen when every model made the same error and I doubt anyother mets here have either. Every model says the same thing so going out on my own is something I would not do being a meteorologist.

calidoug · #23 Postby **calidoug** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 3:53 pm

Air Force Met,

Exactly right. Thank you for being one of the rational voices on these boards.

Chase224 · #24 Postby **Chase224** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 3:54 pm

I was looking at the loop and I thought I was seeing a more Northwest turn then WNW

ColdFront77 · #25 Postby **ColdFront77** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 3:57 pm

I have seen tropical cyclones move WSW for brief periods of time around a high pressure (alone); so you can imagine with a combination of that and ULL's around at the same time.

caribepr · #26 Postby **caribepr** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 4:01 pm

Don't hold back so, Calidoug...say how you really feel!;)

I am a complete weather novice, (except for watching weather closely in real time - translate, look at surroundings closely and talk to the old people), scientifically speaking I mean - with enough knowledge to know my level of ignorance (ignorance, not stupidity). Obviously some get excited and want to jump in the pool with the trained lifeguards...but I think there is a way of more gently asking them to keep to the shallow end until they are more sure if there is nothing under their feet...
I'm learning a lot here - it's interesting...but as the pros keep saying, it's NOT an exact science..or it wouldn't even BE interesting, I doubt this board would exist at all. Um...what were we talking about?

ColdFront77 · #27 Postby **ColdFront77** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 4:04 pm

caribepr wrote:I doubt this board would exist at all. Um...what were we talking about?

I am sure this board would exist. There are enough weather enthusiasts out there that enjoy corresponding with each other about tropical weather and other meteorological issues.

caribepr · #28 Postby **caribepr** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 4:06 pm

Coldfront;) That's exactly what I meant...it's exciting, it's interesting, that's why the board exists...sorry if I wasn't clear to you.

ColdFront77 · #29 Postby **ColdFront77** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 4:15 pm

I'm sorry about that caribepr. I thought you meant if tropical cyclones weren't unpredictable, then we wouldn't be hear talking about it.

Anonymous · #30 Postby **Anonymous** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 4:36 pm

Hey I was just setting my forecast and to take it with a grain of salt basically. Last frame almost looks like a turn back to the west on the latest loop. Will have to wait a few more hours and see.

I basically backed up my statements with what was on the map and where it was heading. No I do not have the models to back me up and I guess that is what I considered proof on the map. Sorry, I did not mean to anger any of you (which obviously I did, which is sad haha).

Anonymous · #31 Postby **Anonymous** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 4:44 pm

Here is a model that agrees with me:

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/loop.etauspcp.html

Watch the Canadian Ridge.

southerngale · #32 Postby **southerngale** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 5:13 pm

How good is that model?

#33 Postby **Air Force Met** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 5:14 pm

The Eta? Dude. Don't use the Eta to agree with you.

First of all...the ETA is horrific in tropical cyclons...especially strong ones. Last year...it has Lili going into Matagorda less than 24 hours out.

Second: The Eta only goes out 84 hours (unless you look at the experimentals) and even there you see the steering flow is shifted and swinging NW.

Third: THat is a sfc map. Your title is "weatherman" IF you are...then you know Cat 5 hurricanes are not steered by sfc features so it would not matter if that was a 1050mb high sitting there. It matters what is going on aloft. ALoft there is a NW-SE oriented trof with a trof to the NW of the storm which will turn the storm.

So...even the ETA turns the storm just a little past the 84 hours. But again...the Eta is a bad model for strong tropical cyclones. The NHC even mentions the ETA...but doesn't even sound an alarm about continued westward motion. Remember...3-5 days out...look at pattern and don't look at sfc features to steer cat 5 hurricanes...it doesn't work that way.

Anonymous · #34 Postby **Anonymous** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 5:20 pm

last 2 frames on loop have it going west. still want to stick with your predicition? hehe

cindyfl · #35 Postby **cindyfl** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 5:23 pm

I think what Air Force Met is saying is that, that paticular model is not reliable.

#36 Postby **Air Force Met** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 5:30 pm

Yep...because I am not going to react over a trochodial wobble...only people I disagree with do that

Strong storms never move on a straight line. They wobble left...then go straight. They wobble right...then go straight. The motion is 285. Also...if you watch the tropical wx outlook on TWC...they've been showing a 24 hour loop with latitude lines and you can see the change in motion really well.

#37 Postby **Air Force Met** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 5:51 pm

Last two frames on the GHCC show the WNW motion back on track...the west wobble is over.

Anonymous · #38 Postby **Anonymous** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 8:33 pm

west wobble is back

To call me a wishcaster when I am sticking with my predicition is idiotic, seriously.

Josephine96 · #39 Postby **Josephine96** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 8:37 pm

Weather Man- Please remind me.. what was your prediction..?

#40 Postby **Steve Cosby** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 8:40 pm

You know, all of this wobble / no wobble stuff assumes one thing: the sat picture is not wobbling - i.e. that the post-processing is not inducing some of the wobble.

I've noticed generated high resolution satellite loops coming from the Storm Prediction Center and the Tulsa NWS office of our area that seem to have a wobble in them. That is, the first few frames may be showing a line of clouds over one town and then the lat/lon / county borders jump one way or the other and the last frames are on this apparently revised focus area. It may just be problems translating the satellite data to local areas but I still have to wonder if this may be part of the reason for some of the apparent wobbles. Comments?

Moving West

Steering

Northwest

Model no good

Wobbles

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