GOM Issue getting VERY interesting.

[Steve]

If you're going to Pensacola Beach, bring your boogie board or surfboard because you might see some decent wave action.

Steve

[Rainband]

The GFS over does this big time

[Wnghs2007]

The GFS over does this big time

LOL. G=Goofy F=Funny S=System. It will always make a system that is goofy, and funny. Oh wait the same thing. LOL.

[Rainband]

115
fxus62 ktbw 111705
afdtbw


West central and southwest Florida forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay area - Ruskin Florida
105 PM EDT Friday Jun 11 2004


Short term (tonight-sun)...
models continue to show a deep layer ridge axis generally over the
central forecast area through the period. Deep layer moisture also remains
sufficient enough for at least climatology probability of precipitation (~40%)...but given trends
past few days...would prefer to go 40-50% coastal areas...and 50-
60% interior counties. Model probability of precipitation a little lower...especially for
Sat...probably due to a gradual increase in upper heights as upper
ridge tries to build over the area. However...model probability of precipitation increase
again for sun...even-though the synoptic pattern looks very similar
to Sat. Thus...will go similar probability of precipitation both Sat and sun...with highest
probability of precipitation (50-60%) interior. Given west-southwest low level flow...will continue to
see late night and morning showers/thunderstorms over the Gulf waters...
coming onshore by middle/late morning from tpa Bay northward.


Long term (sun ngt-fri)...GFS at 12 once again opts to bring weak
tropical like system out of the Caribbean and up towards the
Panhandle. This leads to winds being way to strong and precipitation
fields over done to say the least. Most likely scenario at this
point would be for this mostly middle-upper level system to continue
slowly northwest into central Gulf then possibly northward as
energy lifts/shears out along approaching middle-latitude trough by
Monday. The 06z GFS run looked better over-all and have leaned in
that direction.


After some general southerly low-level flow on Monday and Tuesday...
will depict ridging again building in from the east across central
Florida on Wednesday. This ridge should get suppressed southward by
Thursday and Friday as whatever energy remains lifts out well to
north...probably well north and west of where the 12z GFS depicts.




&&


Marine...no big changes or concerns at this time. Will continue to
monitor model solutions regarding possible low center moving
northward into the central Gulf by early next week. For now...have
opted to pretty much ignore this feature given uncertainty.


&&


Fire weather...no highlights.


&&


Preliminary point temps/pops...
tpa 075 090 077 091 / 20 40 20 40
fmy 074 091 074 091 / 40 50 40 40
gif 073 092 074 093 / 40 50 40 50
srq 074 088 074 089 / 20 40 20 40
bkv 071 090 071 092 / 30 40 30 40


&&


Tbw watches/warnings/advisories...none.


&&


$$


Short term...Morales
long term...jillson

[Guest]

This IMO says it has a good shot at atleast being named. Has a nice spin to it which you can clearly see on this water vapor loop image below. How strong it gets is the question that remains? The ULL and the front (How far south it gets) to the north now in the MA and as well if the ridge builds in over top of it is what will play a big role in what will become of this system.

With the front begining to slow down tells me that the ridge to the south of it is holding firm which is where this system is headed towards. Which leaves the ULL as the big question mark imo.
Right now the system seems to be holding its own well and as i said has a nice spin to it which you will see. Either way in the end it will be a good rain maker for the south/southeast. If it continues to hold its own into tonight (Which i think it will) then i say it will atleast become our first named system by tomorrow afternoon imo. By then should have a better clue as well as to how much further this may develop if it is to develop. Stay tuned!

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

[Lindaloo]

A named storm? Not what I wanted to hear!

[ColdFront77]

The forecast is still calling for the high pressure at all levels of the atmospehere over the Gulf of Mexico to move eastward as the cold front moves down through the mid-Atlantic states and then stall over southeast Georgia on Monday.

Overall, already, the steering has been out of the south and even more so southwest since earlier in the week when the seabreeze storms across Florida were east to west.

Apparently the overall forecast is for the center of this system in the western Caribbean/near the southeastern Gulf of Mexico to be more due northerly through the period, otherwise generally central Florida would see this system, not the Florida panhandle and/or the central Gulf coast states.

[Lindaloo]

So what you are saying is that it will move North then make a sudden turn east to hit central Florida?

[ColdFront77]

Fortunately and unfortunately, YES.

Fortunately so I get some interesting weather and some much needed rain above the daily late afternoon and evening chances.

Unfortauntely because of people thinking I am -removed- (a negative word in my opinion)... don't we want weather to effect us??

I know the reason for wind flow and professional, amatuer (my self included) and official forecasts calling for this system to move more northerly into the Florida panhandle and even further west than that.

[Steve]

77,

Anything you get in Central Florida is going to be east-side but peripheral stuff (e.g. banding, enhanced seabreeze, etc.). No way the center of circulation (if one ends up existing) goes in anywhere near the Peninsula IMHO. Like I said yesterday - Plaquemines Parish, LA to Bay County, FL is the likely target zone for the increase in tropical moisture.

Steve

[Lindaloo]

We all need rain but the proof is in the forecasting as to who will get it. If it goes to central Florida then I will be happy because it is much needed there too.

[ColdFront77]

77,

Anything you get in Central Florida is going to be east-side but peripheral stuff (e.g. banding, enhanced seabreeze, etc.). No way the center of circulation (if one ends up existing) goes in anywhere near the Peninsula IMHO. Like I said yesterday - Plaquemines Parish, LA to Bay County, FL is the likely target zone for the increase in tropical moisture.

Steve

That's my point, the wind flow will have to change from what it is now for it to head that way.

[Lindaloo]

Tom the wind flow does point it to the N.Central Gulf Coast states for now.

[ColdFront77]

Is that why thunderstorm activity across Florida is generally moving west to east?

I understand the wind flow can be different within a relatively small distance, but still, but again the confidence level (like last year) seems so high.

I feel like I don't know what I am talking about, when I really do. I don't know what else to say!

[Guest]

77,

Anything you get in Central Florida is going to be east-side but peripheral stuff (e.g. banding, enhanced seabreeze, etc.). No way the center of circulation (if one ends up existing) goes in anywhere near the Peninsula IMHO. Like I said yesterday - Plaquemines Parish, LA to Bay County, FL is the likely target zone for the increase in tropical moisture.

Steve

That's my point, the wind flow will have to change from what it is now for it to head that way.

What EXACTLY are you saying Tom?

Are you saying the CURRENT wind direction will take it to Central Florida?

Please elaborate.

[Steve]

No sweat Tom. I think you're liable to see some trailing stuff too if it gets organized. I expect anything to likely go in east of here, but I could be wrong. That means some inflow down the road. I also hope you guys get some rain down there. We've had insane amounts in Louisiana lately, though the last couple of days have been a nice change of pace.

Steve

[Lindaloo]

Look at GA/SC wind flow.

[Lindaloo]

No sweat Tom. I think you're liable to see some trailing stuff too if it gets organized. I expect anything to likely go in east of here, but I could be wrong. That means some inflow down the road. I also hope you guys get some rain down there. We've had insane amounts in Louisiana lately, though the last couple of days have been a nice change of pace.

Steve

I did not see a drop. lol.

[ColdFront77]

What EXACTLY are you saying Tom?

Are you saying the CURRENT wind direction will take it to Central Florida?

Please elaborate.

I have elaborated already, aside from ongoing answers and comments I will give. I stated my views and seem to be getting negative feedback like expected. If I'm not, I apologize.

In general I am saying that the CURRENT steering flow would take it TOWARD central Florida. That doesn't make sense? A southwest flow from the northwest Caribbean Sea/southeastern Gulf of Mexico is right into central Florida.

[ColdFront77]

Look at GA/SC wind flow.

The generally movement of the activity over Georgia and South Carolina is south, southeast and even east, hard to tell becomes there is a very slow steering pattern in that region.