HPC: Eastern Trough likely permanent through Fall

[Dean4Storms]

And yet something else comes to mind, usually by early-mid Sept. an occasional period of an eastern trough takes place anyway as we begin to slip into a fall pattern of cool fronts. Although they very often re-curve TC's out in the Atlantic (remember Erin in Sept. 01, had she not re-curved, Sept. 11 may have at least been postponed) they also re-curve TC's that take the low road into the Carib. or into the GOM

[Steve H.]

If the trough stays, it will be a very boring season

[Stormsfury]

If the trough stays, it will be a very boring season

Well, as long as we have something to track later this season, maybe not ...

[cycloneye]

So now my question and I know the question from those who live in the islands is if we will be spared from those CV systems if this forecast verifies.I know that if the trough stays in place the important thing to watch is what corridor will those CV systems take as long as the trough is there.The other thing to watch is what Dr Gray and NOAA will say about it in their next outlooks in early august.

[rainstorm]

the far ne islands may get hit. amazing, we are in a period of increased cane activity, and this will be the 5th season in a row with no major hit in the us. we are very lucky indeed. fish tracking time, though 1 may slip through

[LarryWx]

the far ne islands may get hit. amazing, we are in a period of increased cane activity, and this will be the 5th season in a row with no major hit in the us. we are very lucky indeed. fish tracking time, though 1 may slip through

Rainstorm,
OK cool, a weak hurricane season for the US. We can relax thank goodness. But what about our friends in Bermuda? Are you worried about them by any chance? Look at 1981!

Any early prediction for the winter yet? I hope you realize that your predictions are well-followed and respected by fellow wx enthusiasts and the media alike.

[Guest]

the far ne islands may get hit. amazing, we are in a period of increased cane activity, and this will be the 5th season in a row with no major hit in the us. we are very lucky indeed. fish tracking time, though 1 may slip through

Did I sleep for 3 months??? I thought we were still in July & the heart of the season still ahead.

Pardon me for saying that these are very ridiculous comments you are making @ this point in the game.

What outrageous & bizarre things to say.

& LarryWx you are relaxing based on what rainstorm is saying???

YIKES!!!! I hope you have more common sense than that.

[elw]

MIA, good point. This is only July 18. The peak of the season isn't until Early September.

I really Don't see anything that would suggest that this will be an inactive season, or without the potential for a major U.S. landfall.

A slow start doesn't mean a boring season.

[rainstorm]

to me, bermuda is not the united states. its too bad anyone anywhere has to face a weather disaster, but i have no control over it, all i can do is watch.
it looks like this will be like 94 or 97 right now. i think it is quite remarkable that in the middle of an increase in cane activity we have been spared any major hits. and if the trough continues as predicted, this will be the 5th season in a row. we can all be happy about that. it also seems to me that once a pattern get locked, it stays locked for at least several months.

[rainstorm]

MIA, good point. This is only July 18. The peak of the season isn't until Early September.

I really Don't see anything that would suggest that this will be an inactive season, or without the potential for a major U.S. landfall.

A slow start doesn't mean a boring season.

true, but a locked pattern doesnt get unlocked easily. i have noticed that patterns arent 'variable". look at winter patterns. once one is established, it stays established. look at the last 10 summers as well. im not saying a donna or hugo cant sneak through, but i thnk jb and dr gray are way off in their landfall forecasts.

[elw]

to me, bermuda is not the united states. its too bad anyone anywhere has to face a weather disaster, but i have no control over it, all i can do is watch.
it looks like this will be like 94 or 97 right now. i think it is quite remarkable that in the middle of an increase in cane activity we have been spared any major hits. and if the trough continues as predicted, this will be the 5th season in a row. we can all be happy about that. it also seems to me that once a pattern get locked, it stays locked for at least several months.

Not true. 1997 was a strong El Nino year, and 1994 was at the tail end of the weak ATC cycle (also trending toward El Nino conditions) Neither of those two conditions are satisfied this year.

[rainstorm]

to me, bermuda is not the united states. its too bad anyone anywhere has to face a weather disaster, but i have no control over it, all i can do is watch.
it looks like this will be like 94 or 97 right now. i think it is quite remarkable that in the middle of an increase in cane activity we have been spared any major hits. and if the trough continues as predicted, this will be the 5th season in a row. we can all be happy about that. it also seems to me that once a pattern get locked, it stays locked for at least several months.

Not true. 1997 was a strong El Nino year, and 1994 was at the tail end of the weak ATC cycle (also trending toward El Nino conditions) Neither of those two conditions are satisfied this year.

to me landfalls are the name of the game, but we will see. if the trough forecast is accurate, then the east coast, fla, and the gulf coast will be spared any hits, save for a rogue storm that is always possible in any pattern

[ameriwx2003]

& LarryWx you are relaxing based on what rainstorm is saying???

YIKES!!!! I hope you have more common sense than that.

Mia _canetrakker... Having seen LarrysWx posts over the past few years I can tell you that his comments to rainstorm were very much tongue in cheek:):)..

[LarryWx]

the far ne islands may get hit. amazing, we are in a period of increased cane activity, and this will be the 5th season in a row with no major hit in the us. we are very lucky indeed. fish tracking time, though 1 may slip through

Did I sleep for 3 months??? I thought we were still in July & the heart of the season still ahead.

Pardon me for saying that these are very ridiculous comments you are making @ this point in the game.

What outrageous & bizarre things to say.

& LarryWx you are relaxing based on what rainstorm is saying???

YIKES!!!! I hope you have more common sense than that.

MIA_cane,
Normally, I am very careful before I decide to put a lot of stock in a forecast. Forecasts from esteemed people such as Dr. Gray, JB, and the NOAA people are all quite well-respected by me, but I always take each one somewhat with a grain of salt. However, now we're talking about the VERY well-respected rainstorm forecasts. I just don't feel a grain of salt is needed. Look at her record over the years! She's never predicted that there'd be a season with numerous major hurricane hits on the east coast (often due to protective WNW flow) and she's been 100% right on every time! Can Gray and JB say the same thing?
You be the judge.

[elw]

Rainstorm, this was July 1994.



And July 1997



In 1994, the Equatorial and far North Atlantic was cooler than average, which is normal for the ATC weak cycle. In 1997, the Atlantic was warmer because the switch took place in 1996, but the overpowering El nino dashed any hopes for an active hurricane season that year.

[Guest]

elw its the same thing every season with this person always proclaiming its over before it has even begun & then jumps on the bandwagon when it starts.To say that this season will be like 94 or 97 is flat out whacky when the forecasts calls for 12- 15 NS & thats courtesy of NOAA who should be taken much more seriously than rainstorm.To say that we are safe this season from any majors is also whacky,troughs come & go in the east & also there are other areas of ocean like the GOM & Caribbean where powerful hurricane can develop & move north toward the U.S thanks to the much talked about trough.Maybe Virginia will not get a major hurricane because most if not all hurricanes weaken substantially way before making it up there but certainly other regions are at risk any season trough or no trough.

Also I live down south almost as far south as you can go on the mainland US,though it has been relatively quiet hurricane wise this is a place with a history of getting major hurricanes from every direction so I am vigilant every year.

[rainstorm]

the far ne islands may get hit. amazing, we are in a period of increased cane activity, and this will be the 5th season in a row with no major hit in the us. we are very lucky indeed. fish tracking time, though 1 may slip through

Did I sleep for 3 months??? I thought we were still in July & the heart of the season still ahead.

Pardon me for saying that these are very ridiculous comments you are making @ this point in the game.

What outrageous & bizarre things to say.

& LarryWx you are relaxing based on what rainstorm is saying???


actually, i have been more accurate than dr gray, who has had a greater than average chance of a major cane hit on the us from 2000-now. hehe
YIKES!!!! I hope you have more common sense than that.

MIA_cane,
Normally, I am very careful before I to put a lot of stock in a forecast. Forecasts from esteemed people such as Dr. Gray, JB, and the NOAA people are all quite well-respected by me, but I always take each one somewhat with a grain of salt. However, now we're talking about the VERY well-respected rainstorm forecasts. I just don't feel a grain of salt is needed. Look at her record over the years! She's never predicted that there'd be a season with numerous major hurricane hits on the east coast (often due to protective WNW flow) and she's been 100% right on every time! Can Gray and JB say the same thing?
You be the judge.

[rainstorm]

Rainstorm, this was July 1994.



And July 1997



In 1994, the Equatorial and far North Atlantic was cooler than average, which is normal for the ATC weak cycle. In 1997, the Atlantic was warmer because the switch took place in 1996, but the overpowering El nino dashed any hopes for an active hurricane season that year.

excellent info!! i know the sst's are different. what i am saying is that this season will be similar to landfalls, if the trough doesnt leave. time will tell though.

[Anonymous]

A question that arises in my mind is how many of these past analog years had a neutral El Nino in place as well?

Source (CPC ENSO impacts on the U.S.)
1956 -- Strong La Niña
1973 -- Strong El Niño transitioning to Strong La Niña
1975 -- Strong La Niña
1981 -- Neutral ENSO
1990 -- Strong El Niño
1994 -- Moderate El Niño

SF

Well, in 1981, Ben Tackett used to be one of the local weatherman here and he explained in September that an active jet-stream pushed many hurricanes out to sea. Will this season be similar ? We'll have to see.


I remember 1981 very well - I was 16 at the time and awaiting T.S. Dennis here in South Carolina ! I watched it since it became a storm Aug.7, and it's 2 week long journey across the Atlantic - developed, dissipated to a wave, then re-developed in the West Caribbean, moved north into Florida, became stationary, then finally merged NE off the FL coast and scurted the Carolina coast, then strengthened to a hurricane off Cape Hatteras ! A very complex system ! Actually I was a little dissapointed after it arrived here, only seeing some wind gusts and occassional heavy showers by afternoon. After that, the rest of the hurricanes recurved out to sea.


Earlier in late June, T.S. Bret formed just off the N.C. coast and I remember how excited I was. I was -removed- Bret to move SW and impact my area, but that of course never happened. But I do remember spiral cloud bands circling to our NE the day it formed.


In fact, I remember when Dennis weakened in the Tropical Atlantic from near hurricane strength down to 45mph. I was taking a nap hoping for Dennis to be upgraded to a hurricane in the 6pm advisory....... after I woke up, my parents said "well Ken, Dennis must have fallen asleep when you took your nap" lol !

[Guest]

the far ne islands may get hit. amazing, we are in a period of increased cane activity, and this will be the 5th season in a row with no major hit in the us. we are very lucky indeed. fish tracking time, though 1 may slip through

Did I sleep for 3 months??? I thought we were still in July & the heart of the season still ahead.

Pardon me for saying that these are very ridiculous comments you are making @ this point in the game.

What outrageous & bizarre things to say.

& LarryWx you are relaxing based on what rainstorm is saying???

YIKES!!!! I hope you have more common sense than that.

MIA_cane,
Normally, I am very careful before I decide to put a lot of stock in a forecast. Forecasts from esteemed people such as Dr. Gray, JB, and the NOAA people are all quite well-respected by me, but I always take each one somewhat with a grain of salt. However, now we're talking about the VERY well-respected rainstorm forecasts. I just don't feel a grain of salt is needed. Look at her record over the years! She's never predicted that there'd be a season with numerous major hurricane hits on the east coast (often due to protective WNW flow) and she's been 100% right on every time! Can Gray and JB say the same thing?
You be the judge.

I'll take my chances with NOAA you can have rainstorm on the subject of hurricanes,she knows her stuff but I'll still go with NOAA.For anything else I'll take rainstorm.