Dr. Lyons - No Development!

Steve H. · #21 Postby **Steve H.** » Mon Jul 19, 2004 4:33 pm

More encouraging words :roll:

RS you are the eternal optimist.

#22 Postby **vbhoutex** » Mon Jul 19, 2004 4:33 pm

There is still plenty of dry air in the Eastern Caribbean at all levels. It is not as pervasive as it was, but may be enough to diminish the chances of development for a while until this system finds a more favorable environment.

Opal storm · #23 Postby **Opal storm** » Mon Jul 19, 2004 4:34 pm

rainstorm wrote:dr lyons is right. it is now hitting the carib wall of death. a john hope rule. if it isnt a well-developed circ before it gets to the carib, forget it. plus there is a strong ull to its north

NOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!

We'll see though,at this time I don't see it weakening so the chance is still there,and this needs to be watched 8-)

rainstorm · #24 Postby **rainstorm** » Mon Jul 19, 2004 4:34 pm

i have a feeling that this time tomorrow it will be very stretched out and weak. maybe it will develop later, but i think it has run out of time for now

Website · #25 Postby **Brent** » Mon Jul 19, 2004 4:34 pm

rainstorm wrote:dr lyons is right. it is now hitting the carib wall of death. a john hope rule. if it isnt a well-developed circ before it gets to the carib, forget it. plus there is a strong ull to its north

When it does develop there will be a WNW flow that will keep the coast safe. :wink:

Am I Right? :lol:

rainstorm · #26 Postby **rainstorm** » Mon Jul 19, 2004 4:38 pm

Brent wrote:
rainstorm wrote:dr lyons is right. it is now hitting the carib wall of death. a john hope rule. if it isnt a well-developed circ before it gets to the carib, forget it. plus there is a strong ull to its north

When it does develop there will be a WNW flow that will keep the coast safe. Am I Right?

we will see what it looks like tomorrow

#27 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Jul 19, 2004 4:39 pm

caneman wrote:Forget it - hardly. Many systems wait and develop in Central or Western Caribb.

Hurricane Iris, 2001, developed at the same moment it was entering the Eastern Caribbean Sea. It may have been en exception to the rule.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM AST THU OCT 04 2001

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN FORMS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE POORLY DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.7 WEST OR ABOUT 35 MILES...55 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ST VINCENT IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH ...30 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. NO SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 1010 MB...29.83 INCHES.

HEAVY SQUALLS ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...13.1 N... 60.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM AST.

FORECASTER AVILA

Website · #28 Postby **Brent** » Mon Jul 19, 2004 4:40 pm

I thought this one had developed for a minute. LOL! :lol:

Opal storm · #29 Postby **Opal storm** » Mon Jul 19, 2004 4:41 pm

Brent wrote:I thought this one had developed for a minute. LOL!

Me too,my heart stopped for a minute

Thunder44 · #30 Postby **Thunder44** » Mon Jul 19, 2004 4:44 pm

Didn't we have TD develop last year in the Eastern Carribean?

#31 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Jul 19, 2004 4:46 pm

Thunder44 wrote:Didn't we have TD develop last year in the Eastern Carribean?

True, TD 9.

rainstorm · #32 Postby **rainstorm** » Mon Jul 19, 2004 4:50 pm

HURAKAN wrote:
caneman wrote:Forget it - hardly. Many systems wait and develop in Central or Western Caribb.

Hurricane Iris, 2001, developed at the same moment it was entering the Eastern Caribbean Sea. It may have been en exception to the rule.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM AST THU OCT 04 2001

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN FORMS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE POORLY DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.7 WEST OR ABOUT 35 MILES...55 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ST VINCENT IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH ...30 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. NO SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 1010 MB...29.83 INCHES.

HEAVY SQUALLS ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...13.1 N... 60.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM AST.

FORECASTER AVILA

later in the season conditions become more favorable in the east carib. witness hazel. right now i will stick with the john hope rule

chadtm80 · #33 Postby **chadtm80** » Mon Jul 19, 2004 4:51 pm

Cycloman PR Wrote

There's also a strong ULL to the north of it, just N/NE of Puerto Rico and extend into the eastern Caribbean sea. It will be hard for the wave to develop until it get loose from that. Maybe when it reach western Caribbean.
I'll say, Not yet! Maybe later...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-wv-loop.html

That upper level low look too strong right now!

Cycloman.

bahamaswx · #34 Postby **bahamaswx** » Mon Jul 19, 2004 4:51 pm

rainstorm wrote:later in the season conditions become more favorable in the east carib. witness hazel. right now i will stick with the john hope rule

Indeed. I see no immediate development with this wave.

rainstorm · #35 Postby **rainstorm** » Mon Jul 19, 2004 4:54 pm

it looks like the big ull to its north will shear it apart

#36 Postby **Stephanie** » Mon Jul 19, 2004 4:57 pm

The wave has also split into two pieces, with the most dominant one being the northern piece.

Thunder44 · #37 Postby **Thunder44** » Mon Jul 19, 2004 4:57 pm

The ULL very far north of it. I think it is helping to establish outlfow on the north side rather than shearing it.

bahamaswx · #38 Postby **bahamaswx** » Mon Jul 19, 2004 4:59 pm

Looks like the traditional comma-shape.

Derek Ortt · #39 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Mon Jul 19, 2004 5:00 pm

Everyone, lets all calm down! Lay off of the cheap shots on Dr Lyons. He's a very ncie person and does not deserve to be laughed at because his analysis is different from a personal opinion.

BTW, even the most aggressive people at my office were saying that this was weakening as it was becomming linear in nature this afternoon

chadtm80 · #40 Postby **chadtm80** » Mon Jul 19, 2004 5:03 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:Everyone, lets all calm down! Lay off of the cheap shots on Dr Lyons. He's a very ncie person and does not deserve to be laughed at because his analysis is different from a personal opinion.

BTW, even the most aggressive people at my office were saying that this was weakening as it was becomming linear in nature this afternoon

I agree! There is a reason Dr Lyons has his position ;-)

and why we are all just posting on storm2k

Dr. Lyons - No Development!

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