It may take a while

#21 Postby **BayouVenteux** » Sun Jul 25, 2004 6:17 pm

USAwx1 wrote:Everyone just needs to calm down. This is only JUL 25!!

AMEN to that!!!!

rainstorm · #22 Postby **rainstorm** » Sun Jul 25, 2004 6:19 pm

i just think the numbers will be low like those years. lots of dry air, the west pac is just starting to heat up again, and that should last for quite awhile, limiting african waves. also, the ull's in the atlantic are quite numerous and strong. it all depends, if the season begins after 15 aug, then the numbers will be low

hurricanefloyd5 · #23 Postby **hurricanefloyd5** » Sun Jul 25, 2004 6:20 pm

will this become a 97 season????????????????

Valkhorn · #24 Postby **Valkhorn** » Sun Jul 25, 2004 6:20 pm

Rainstorm is also the same person who last year claimed Isabel would be a fish.

Didn't it make landfall in her neck of the woods?

KatDaddy · #25 Postby **KatDaddy** » Sun Jul 25, 2004 6:24 pm

Many active Seasons do not occur until mid to late August. So we have not had any named storms yet. Things are likely to much different in several weeks.

#26 Postby **USAwx1** » Sun Jul 25, 2004 6:27 pm

hurricanefloyd5 wrote:will this become a 97 season????????????????

No this will NOT be like 1997. That was a strong El Nino year. This year is COMPLETELY different.

Thunder44 · #27 Postby **Thunder44** » Sun Jul 25, 2004 6:38 pm

I think this will be a normal season. We will not have a storm this month. I think it's going to take more time for the pattern to get right for development. Maybe not till late-August will we see a named storm.

The_Cycloman_PR · #28 Postby **The_Cycloman_PR** » Sun Jul 25, 2004 7:07 pm

rainstorm wrote:i think everyone will downgrade. maybe a 94 or 97 type season? or 82 or 83

I repeat...Patience...

The_Cycloman_PR · #29 Postby **The_Cycloman_PR** » Sun Jul 25, 2004 7:13 pm

Valkhorn wrote:Rainstorm is also the same person who last year claimed Isabel would be a fish.

Didn't it make landfall in her neck of the woods?

Yes I remember her from last year...she was killing the season and every system formed from the start to the finish. Just like now.

Rainstorm wrote...i just think the numbers will be low like those years. lots of dry air, the west pac is just starting to heat up again, and that should last for quite awhile, limiting african waves. also, the ull's in the atlantic are quite numerous and strong. it all depends, if the season begins after 15 aug, then the numbers will be low

bahamaswx · #30 Postby **bahamaswx** » Sun Jul 25, 2004 7:26 pm

The_Cycloman_PR wrote:
Valkhorn wrote:Rainstorm is also the same person who last year claimed Isabel would be a fish.

Didn't it make landfall in her neck of the woods?

Yes I remember her from last year...she was killing the season and every system formed from the start to the finish. Just like now.
Rainstorm wrote...i just think the numbers will be low like those years. lots of dry air, the west pac is just starting to heat up again, and that should last for quite awhile, limiting african waves. also, the ull's in the atlantic are quite numerous and strong. it all depends, if the season begins after 15 aug, then the numbers will be low

Pessimism is not a crime. Nor is it a crime to be wrong.

The_Cycloman_PR · #31 Postby **The_Cycloman_PR** » Sun Jul 25, 2004 7:42 pm

No. Not a crime, just the way a person stick to it and stick again and again making that a forever...That, my friend...is the crime!!! :lol:

#32 Postby **wxman57** » Sun Jul 25, 2004 7:52 pm

rainstorm wrote:my 12/8/4 seems way too high. conditions are unfavorable everywhere

I see no reason to back down from 12-14 named storms. I certainly didn't expect any storms until August. We'll see 4-5 storms in August 5-6 in September and a few more in Oct/Nov. Analog years suggest a later start to the season, but lots of activity when it gets going.

#33 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Jul 25, 2004 9:55 pm

wxman57 wrote:
rainstorm wrote:my 12/8/4 seems way too high. conditions are unfavorable everywhere

I see no reason to back down from 12-14 named storms. I certainly didn't expect any storms until August. We'll see 4-5 storms in August 5-6 in September and a few more in Oct/Nov. Analog years suggest a later start to the season, but lots of activity when it gets going.

Agree with you Chris about not changing the numbers as season looks like it will explode with one development after another when the summerlike pattern settles in very soon and already some signs of that are showing up such as warmer waters in the atlantic meaning ridge will be building and from there all bets are off I fear.

weatherlover427 · #34 Postby **weatherlover427** » Mon Jul 26, 2004 1:14 am

*applause*

You are my newest Wxbuddy friend, USAwx1!

I have a lot more respect for you after that post.

Matthew5 · #35 Postby **Matthew5** » Mon Jul 26, 2004 2:09 am

This season is very much different then any season we have ever seen. The reason for that is, we had two tropical cyclones form in the south Atlantic! Never in the histroy of records could you say that about any season. A tropical storm formed on January 19th then we had the south Atlatnic hurriacane! That was the first hurricane to ever form in the south Atlatnic. None of your reseach is good this year because of it! With out any real record of this happening it is pretty hard to find a year that stands out. This year could be 1 tropical storm or it could be 20 named storms who knows! That is the fun of tracking tropical cyclones. In that is why I do it. So just Watch in see 8-)

The Dark Knight · #36 Postby **The Dark Knight** » Mon Jul 26, 2004 7:14 am

hahahahaha, very aggravating......

#37 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jul 26, 2004 11:35 am

The Dark Knight wrote:hahahahaha, very aggravating......

Patience as you will have your wish in a few weeks

.

#38 Postby **vbhoutex** » Mon Jul 26, 2004 1:39 pm

Matthew5 wrote:This season is very much different then any season we have ever seen. The reason for that is, we had two tropical cyclones form in the south Atlantic! Never in the histroy of records could you say that about any season. A tropical storm formed on January 19th then we had the south Atlatnic hurriacane! That was the first hurricane to ever form in the south Atlatnic. None of your reseach is good this year because of it! With out any real record of this happening it is pretty hard to find a year that stands out. This year could be 1 tropical storm or it could be 20 named storms who knows! That is the fun of tracking tropical cyclones. In that is why I do it. So just Watch in see

Matthew the bold and larger statement abouve is SO WRONG!!!! One anomaly in each basin does not throw out the climatology or statistics from the past hundred years!! Yes it does give us something to look at and research further, especially after this season is finished and we have the statistics for it, BUT IT DOES NOT NEGATE ANYONES RESEARCH!!!!!

Matthew5 · #39 Postby **Matthew5** » Mon Jul 26, 2004 4:27 pm

Forecasting tropical cyclone seasons, with only a 100 years worth the data. Out of millions if not hundreds of millions of years of tropical cyclones on this planet. Tells that things can happen in maybe even with that being said the south Atlatnic could have 2 or 3 storms every 50 to 100 years??? Or it could be climate change! which throws a screw into the mix of seasonal forecasting of tropical cyclones. Remember there is patterns with in the weather that change every 5 years or 20 years or even 100 years. Who knows what this season will be like. What I was asking is what do you think having two tropical cyclones in the south Atlantic, would do to the north Atlatnic hurricane season? Yes we will have to see what the season brings.

rainstorm · #40 Postby **rainstorm** » Mon Jul 26, 2004 4:40 pm

good point matthew. anything could happen

It may take a while

Still Early in the Season

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