nw turn occuring?

[cycloneye]

OOPS! So sorry - had the wrong browers page open. Know how to delete a post?

I deleited that old grafic and the post.

[Mattie]

Thank you!!
Might as well delete derecho and my other comment too <grin>

[MWatkins]

No.

See...if you follow the loops carefully it looks like the system is moving NW not because it is actually moving NW...but because the main burst of convection is rotating around the center from the SE to the NW.

Looking at the motion since 11:00AM it looks like we will see an eye pop shortly on the SW side of the convection...near 13.3 45.5 as of 1702Z...

MW

[Guest]

WAKE UP!!! It aint turning. That was a wooble. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html

ummm, relax, someone asked a question. at least answer them respectfully

[alicia-w]

I thought I remembered some of our own mets here saying something about not putting too much stock in just a few frames of a loop when trying to determine direction. That it was something observed over a period of several hours or more...

[jlauderdal]

I thought I remembered some of our own mets here saying something about not putting too much stock in just a few frames of a loop when trying to determine direction. That it was something observed over a period of several hours or more...

correct..systems wobble so you cant make anything out of a few hours. however, pay attention to a wobble when they get close to shore because it makes all the difference in the ultimate track.

[rbaker]

well since the goes sat has been down since 1615z we can't tell if its a wobble or not until it comes back online. But on the vis sat last loops for about the last 3 frames you could see a faint eye, which was moving more wnw-nw than west without having anything to do with convection fireup around the center. Clearly evident on vis loop.

[Brent]

No.

See...if you follow the loops carefully it looks like the system is moving NW not because it is actually moving NW...but because the main burst of convection is rotating around the center from the SE to the NW.

Looking at the motion since 11:00AM it looks like we will see an eye pop shortly on the SW side of the convection...near 13.3 45.5 as of 1702Z...

MW

Thanks for telling us.

[MWatkins]

well since the goes sat has been down since 1615z we can't tell if its a wobble or not until it comes back online. But on the vis sat last loops for about the last 3 frames you could see a faint eye, which was moving more wnw-nw than west without having anything to do with convection fireup around the center. Clearly evident on vis loop.

The eye feature is gone but following the tight central circulation (and the 1615Z position estimate from SAB and extrapolating...it looks like the current center is near 13.5N 46.0W...which is .4 degrees north and 1.0 degrees west of the 11AM NHC position estimate. This ends up on a course of 290/295...but the last 2 hours appear to be almost due west again...looking at meteosat.

MW

[Matthew5]

I wish the floater would come back!

[rbaker]

I concur, looking at the met again, so it could have been just a 2 to 3 hr wobble, which is not uncommon. Still think its more threat to islands if it stays on that west course, but even wnw its going to be close call.
On another note, good talkin to ya last night, my name on chat is the infamous "porkchop", since I've been on msg board its rbaker. By the way have any idea on how to change my user name to my chat line name of porkchop?

[chadtm80]

How long is the floater suppose to be out of commision?

[x-y-no]

Yep. Looks like it was a wobble.

[kevin]

With forecast intensity and potential track, Frances is definetely a cause for concern. Next week should be very interesting.