Regarding the Gulf...

[Steve]

The Bastardi take is a setup with a North Atlantic High (Newfoundland Wheel) vs. the setup for Andrew which had a high pressure centered over PA.

But FWIW, if your interest lies in the Gulf, check out today's High-Res SST's:

https://128.160.23.54/products/OFA/gsscofa.gif

Joe also cautioned sleepyheads in the West and Central Gulf that after 97,98 and Frances are out of the way, higher than normal pressures off the SA Coast may lead to some deflection into bathwater.

Steve

[Air Force Met]

If the 10 day GFS is even close to being right...the upper high will be set up over the PA region...and maybe even further south.

[zoeyann]

but Steve what does that mean? Sorry I'm clueless.

[southerngale]

The Bastardi take is a setup with a North Atlantic High (Newfoundland Wheel) vs. the setup for Andrew which had a high pressure centered over PA.

But FWIW, if your interest lies in the Gulf, check out today's High-Res SST's:

https://128.160.23.54/products/OFA/gsscofa.gif

Joe also cautioned sleepyheads in the West and Central Gulf that after 97,98 and Frances are out of the way, higher than normal pressures off the SA Coast may lead to some deflection into bathwater.

Steve

What does that mean? Sorry, just a sleepyhead here.

[Steve]

Look at the water temperatures. They are running 86 degrees (where the orange begins) and higher. With a few weeks ahead for heating, parts of the Gulf could easily be approaching 90 by the 2nd week of September.

Steve

[frederic79]

stems from this: BECAUSE of the warm SST's in the Gulf, any intense hurricane that enters the Gulf at this juncture will not weaken as Georges did and others have done in the past. If moving slowly enough, it could easily strengthen even more (i. e. Allen 1980) fed by warm Gulf waters. In addition, the storm would encounter warm eddy's on its way to landfall (i. e. Opal 1995). Short of an infusion of dry air you can imagine what landfall would be like. As long as it stays out of the Gulf, this is a mute point.

[HouTXmetro]

stems from this: BECAUSE of the warm SST's in the Gulf, any intense hurricane that enters the Gulf at this juncture will not weaken as Georges did and others have done in the past. If moving slowly enough, it could easily strengthen even more (i. e. Allen 1980) fed by warm Gulf waters. In addition, the storm would encounter warm eddy's on its way to landfall (i. e. Opal 1995). Short of an infusion of dry air you can imagine what landfall would be like. As long as it stays out of the Gulf, this is a mute point.

Exactly, Something has to get into the gulf first. Add to that all the other variables needed for a strong hurricane. Warm SST's doesn't mean anything. It takes more than that for a major cane to get going.

[Air Force Met]

Here's a real good link to GOM water temps...and SE us.

https://128.160.23.54/products/SATANAL/gssofa.gif

And the all important heat content:

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/cyclone/data/at.html

[PurdueWx80]

Here's a real good link to GOM water temps...and SE us.

https://128.160.23.54/products/SATANAL/gssofa.gif

And the all important heat content:

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/cyclone/data/at.html

The two things that worry me most are A. Heat content between the Bahamas and FL - Frances could pull an Andrew if she happens to go over a similar path. And B. Very warm eddy SSE of Louisiana. If a storm were to take a path similar to Lili (without having an Isidore a week before) it wouldn't weaken before landfall. Actually, Lili probably weakened for several reasons, one of them being slightly cooler waters, another being an influx of dry air.

[frederic79]

Some conditions needed for extreme intensity:

1- upper tropospheric anticyclone enhancing outflow
2- abundant cumulus convection
3- strong LLC
4- light or non-existent vertical wind sheer
5- SST's higher than 28.5 degree C
6- reasonable forward speed (not Earl at 25 mph!)
7- warm, moist environment; absence of dry air

How many of these will Frances be influenced by in the coming days?
This storm is already amazing despite 80-82 degree SST's and lots of dry air!

[Air Force Met]

How many of these will Frances be influenced by in the coming days?
This storm is already amazing despite 80-82 degree SST's and lots of dry air!

All of them.

[c5Camille]

some one is gonna get hurt... i'm affraid.

best get out of the way!

[PurdueWx80]

The storm also appears to be efficient at mixing out the dry air. Basically the circulation is dragging in moisture from the ocean and moistening the atmosphere around it rapidly. It's sort of in it's own world now. The shear forecasts I've seen have a perfect setup for a Cat 4 or 5. They also show a 40-50 kt outflow jet in a couple of days to the E and SE of Frances.

[ColdFront77]

South Florida is about the best piece of land for a hurricane to maintain intensity or only weaken slightly.

True, Brent.

Just about the entire Florida peninsula doesn't rapidly or even possibly moderately weaken hurricanes.

I am just above 100 feet above sea level in central Florida and was just a foot below or above that in southeastern Massachusetts.

[Steve]

>>I am just above 100 feet above sea level in central Florida and was just a foot below or above that in southeastern Massachusetts.

LOL. I'm 80 miles north of the Gulf and just found out last week I was sea level - that's 0 feet 0 inches. I had to shake my head. Of course with the terrible coastal erosion ignored by Reagan, Bush, Clinton and Bush, most everything south of New Orleans is water now anyway. But I had to laugh at you being 100' up.

Steve

[zoeyann]

I am a godd 50 miles southwest of you Steve, and yes I live on a glorified sandbar in the middle of a marsh (Chauvin). Your actually lucky because most of New orleans is below see level. It is pretty funny I took a river boat ride one day and was looking down at the tops of houses from water. I do not know how the river can be higher than the land around it, but I certainly hope those homes are insured.

[cape_escape]

Look at the water temperatures. They are running 86 degrees (where the orange begins) and higher. With a few weeks ahead for heating, parts of the Gulf could easily be approaching 90 by the 2nd week of September.

Steve

Last night, our Fox forecaster in Cape Coral/ Ft Myers, said that the gulf water is 92!! God, I hope Frances stays out of the Gulf!