GFDL Right Turn

[BensonTCwatcher]

I assume you mean to stay on the currect forecast/model track?

[Derek Ortt]

and the models had this storm near 18N at this point. They'v eonly been 6 degrees off.


The models do this every single time for low latitude systems

[CFLCaneWatcher]

Except without the trough. IMO this is the one that will go into Tampa Bay. I only hope the "cry wolf" attitude after Charley doesn't leave people behind to ride it out. Ivan looks like a monster! Although still very early, take this very seriously!

[Stratosphere747]

D Ortt....Are you trending to more of a Fla/Bahamas track...Or GOM?

[Stormcenter]

It was bound to happen. Since this is right of the old concensus plot...and the GFS was WAAAAAY right in the last run...the overall model concensus is going to shift dramatically to the right for this forecast cycle.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/WBC/CHGQLM.0409072328

This become a very low-confidence extended forecast unless they write off the GFDL coming right as a bad run of the base model.

Will be very interesting to see how they deal with this in the 11PM.

MW

Whatever that FSU superensemble (I think that's what they call it) says I'm believing any of the other models are less credible this far out. The FSU predicted Frances track 3 days out!

Come on Mike forget the models for a second. Does your gut feeling
right now tell you this will be a Florida threat like your hinting at ? Do you really see Ivan taking a path into the S. Florida? Honestly I just don't see it. I didn't see it this morning and don't now. For one thing he has to slow down some and move more northward. None of that has materialized significantly in the last 24 hours. Like I said earlier today the models this far out are just not worth getting all excited just yet. Now come Thursday that might be a different story, maybe. Please understand I'm not knocking your analysis just asking for you non-model experienced only gut feeling on Ivan.