New Euro Over miami....

[Guest]

New models beginning to shift west... Even the horrible GFS is shifting somewhat to the west. So lets not be giving false information here. I would say eariler they were trending to the east, but now to the west...

False info? Wait a min here... look at the 00z ECMWF and you can see it was a W FL hit.. now its a E FL hit up to the NC area.. that is a EAST shift.

ummm.. the euro is one run. i said models which is plural, more than one. The euro is the exception right now.

[vbhoutex]

i have 1 quick question

What exactly is the BOC that wlfpack81 refers to?

I mean what does BOC stand for as an acronym?

The Bay of Campehe-west of the Yucatan peninsula

[yoda]

New models beginning to shift west... Even the horrible GFS is shifting somewhat to the west. So lets not be giving false information here. I would say eariler they were trending to the east, but now to the west...

False info? Wait a min here... look at the 00z ECMWF and you can see it was a W FL hit.. now its a E FL hit up to the NC area.. that is a EAST shift.

ummm.. the euro is one run. i said models which is plural, more than one. The euro is the exception right now.

well, if one goes back to look at the ECMWF.. one would see that 4 runs before the 00Z this morning showed the EXACT or close to the exact same as the 12z ECMWF did. Lets not argue here... lets see what the 00z runs have to say, and then we will see who is right.

[miamijaaz]

Hi everyone, been lurking for a while and was finally "persuaded" to register when the board went to registered members only.

Just wanted to say that I believe the ukmet shifted to the east today as well, if only slightly.

[yoda]

Hi everyone, been lurking for a while and was finally "persuaded" to register when the board went to registered members only.

Just wanted to say that I believe the ukmet shifted to the east today as well, if only slightly.

Hello.. and welcome to the board Miamijaaz!

[Guest]

New models beginning to shift west... Even the horrible GFS is shifting somewhat to the west. So lets not be giving false information here. I would say eariler they were trending to the east, but now to the west...

False info? Wait a min here... look at the 00z ECMWF and you can see it was a W FL hit.. now its a E FL hit up to the NC area.. that is a EAST shift.

ummm.. the euro is one run. i said models which is plural, more than one. The euro is the exception right now.

well, if one goes back to look at the ECMWF.. one would see that 4 runs before the 00Z this morning showed the EXACT or close to the exact same as the 12z ECMWF did. Lets not argue here... lets see what the 00z runs have to say, and then we will see who is right.

Its not a matter of who is right or wrong here. The model"s" have shifted west today "a little". Yes the ecmwf shows it hitting miami then going up the east coast, but it is currently an outliner and i have no problem with outliners because i follow the candian model the most and it is currently an outliner to the west. There are more models out there then simply just the ECMWF. But since you want the storm to come your way all you can see is this model. You have to take the blinders off to be able to forecast that is the key here...

[yoda]

May I suggest that now the GFS and ECMWF agree? How about that now?

[Guest]

May I suggest that now the GFS and ECMWF agree? How about that now?

Yes they agree, but we talking about the GFS here. A model that has been out of touch with reality for a while now. GFS did shift west though which is intresting. Hey who knows these models may verify(and you would get that storm you craving), but i'm sure these two will shift more and more to the west.

[hesperhys]

12Z 9 SEP ECMWF looks more like Cape Sable/Flamingo to me. Since 00Z 7 Sep it has moved landfalls from Tampa to off the SE coast of FL, back W to Cape Sable, now a smidge East. These are all the southern half of the peninsula, yes, but they are *all over* the southern part of the peninsula... not pointed at Miami.

Over the same time frame (since 00Z 7 SEP) the UKMET has moved from near Tampa, to Cape Sable, back to the Gulf off Tampa, east to Ft Myers, and the last few runs have it headed for the panhandle. Its most recent shift is thus westward.

GFDL in this period has moved from Flamingo (approaching), to headed toward the Yucatan, to SW Fla, to the central/eastern Gulf, to SE Fla, to Flamingo, has has been near Naples for the past few runs. Most recent shift also westward.

NOGAPS started off with landfall on the Gulf coast near Tampa or Ft Myers, but shifted to the panhandle in today's 12Z run -- westward.

GFS has had Ivan at various points in the Bahamas well E of S Fla, but in today's 12Z run it is just offshore -- westward again.

So it is not incorrect to state that these models have been trending westward -- and it is more than just today for at least some of them.

ECMWF did well with Frances? Well, so did NOGAPS, which had landfall at various points on central east coast since 30 Aug, and with no spazzing out to Georgia as ECMWF did a few days before landfall. NOGAPS has had Ivan on the Fla Gulf Coast or in the Gulf... Note that a FL Gulf Coast landfall would be in territory that both of these models have covered in the past few days.

The ECMWF is certainly worth paying attention to, but it's not infallible... (case in point from just last month: Charley). Seems to me that the NHC's moving the 5-day track a tad westward is reasonable. I'm not taking all of my shutters down before this weekend, but I don't see this thing as being pointed right at Miami as of today.

[Guest]

12Z 9 SEP ECMWF looks more like Cape Sable/Flamingo to me. Since 00Z 7 Sep it has moved landfalls from Tampa to off the SE coast of FL, back W to Cape Sable, now a smidge East. These are all the southern half of the peninsula, yes, but they are *all over* the southern part of the peninsula... not pointed at Miami.

Over the same time frame (since 00Z 7 SEP) the UKMET has moved from near Tampa, to Cape Sable, back to the Gulf off Tampa, east to Ft Myers, and the last few runs have it headed for the panhandle. Its most recent shift is thus westward.

GFDL in this period has moved from Flamingo (approaching), to headed toward the Yucatan, to SW Fla, to the central/eastern Gulf, to SE Fla, to Flamingo, has has been near Naples for the past few runs. Most recent shift also westward.

NOGAPS started off with landfall on the Gulf coast near Tampa or Ft Myers, but shifted to the panhandle in today's 12Z run -- westward.

GFS has had Ivan at various points in the Bahamas well E of S Fla, but in today's 12Z run it is just offshore -- westward again.

So it is not incorrect to state that these models have been trending westward -- and it is more than just today for at least some of them.

ECMWF did well with Frances? Well, so did NOGAPS, which had landfall at various points on central east coast since 30 Aug, and with no spazzing out to Georgia as ECMWF did a few days before landfall. NOGAPS has had Ivan on the Fla Gulf Coast or in the Gulf... Note that a FL Gulf Coast landfall would be in territory that both of these models have covered in the past few days.

The ECMWF is certainly worth paying attention to, but it's not infallible... (case in point from just last month: Charley). Seems to me that the NHC's moving the 5-day track a tad westward is reasonable. I'm not taking all of my shutters down before this weekend, but I don't see this thing as being pointed right at Miami as of today.

Great post, and well said...

[tedler]

I also agree...Ivan is likely to be in the E GOM come monday night. Miami should be breathing a sigh of relief, not getting depressed because a cat5 won't make landfall there.

[Lockhart]

I agree. It looks like it's set for the Eastern Gulf of Mexico. I hope it manages to find some nasty shear there to weaken it before it hits.

[panichead4469]

New models beginning to shift west... Even the horrible GFS is shifting somewhat to the west. So lets not be giving false information here. I would say eariler they were trending to the east, but now to the west...

Its not a matter of who is right or wrong here. The model"s" have shifted west today "a little". Yes the ecmwf shows it hitting miami then going up the east coast, but it is currently an outliner and i have no problem with outliners because i follow the candian model the most and it is currently an outliner to the west. There are more models out there then simply just the ECMWF. But since you want the storm to come your way all you can see is this model. You have to take the blinders off to be able to forecast that is the key here...

You really have to love the fact that he's blasting people I disagree with, yet he is from LA screaming its coming west!!! its coming west!!! Where is Ivan DEFINITELY heading? towards louisiana?? I assume you probably think so, but hey, lets hope I'm wrong.
Why doesn't everyone on this board stop this love affair with the computer models and realize that even the ultimate so-called "experts" at NHC have VERY LOW confidence in where this bad boy might go. Experienced and knowledgable met. based speculation is healthy and its much more interesting than people calling people people I disagree with (which I guess I'm guilty of now too..lol) and pronoucing Ivan's current motion by each individual IR image.
don't mean to bust on anyone but i really think its getting worse and worse by each storm and just want this board to stay the great discussion place it really is.