I don't think less is better in this case..
What's everyone think of the 5-Day forecast NOW?
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Oh, and the 4th and 5th days were added morese for emergency operations officials who keep stating the obvious - you can not evacuate densely populated areas in 72 hours - "we need more time".
Now, if Ivan bypasses the keys, some of those evacuees will simply ignore the next evacuation order because "they were wrong last time"
Now, if Ivan bypasses the keys, some of those evacuees will simply ignore the next evacuation order because "they were wrong last time"
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SeaBrz_FL
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As always, great post, Mike! I sympathize with the position you are in, but I think it comes down to exactly HOW people use the 120-hr projections.
My family uses a plan, and if the 120 hour puts us in the cone, then it's time to check and refill our supplies, make hotel reservations (that we can cancel without a charge), drag the shutters out of the attic, etc, then just sit back and watch the forecast.
We have a lot of storm-weary residents in the state that are panicking and fleeing to other states based on the 120 hour forecasts. Our gas situation since yesterday is back to empty just like it was immediately after Frances. I understand the logistics of evacuating the Keys early, but no one told them, or others, that they needed to go 400+ miles. Our gas will remain in short supply for another week until everyone is back home.
On the other hand, I can't really blame the wariness of the SW FL residents who found that they couldn't fully rely on even a 24 hour projected path (Charley).
My family uses a plan, and if the 120 hour puts us in the cone, then it's time to check and refill our supplies, make hotel reservations (that we can cancel without a charge), drag the shutters out of the attic, etc, then just sit back and watch the forecast.
We have a lot of storm-weary residents in the state that are panicking and fleeing to other states based on the 120 hour forecasts. Our gas situation since yesterday is back to empty just like it was immediately after Frances. I understand the logistics of evacuating the Keys early, but no one told them, or others, that they needed to go 400+ miles. Our gas will remain in short supply for another week until everyone is back home.
On the other hand, I can't really blame the wariness of the SW FL residents who found that they couldn't fully rely on even a 24 hour projected path (Charley).
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karenfromheaven
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Our local mets have taken to showing the model plots as well as the NHC track, and they say the plots are very popular. I think the plots actually do a better job of conveying a sense of the track possibilites 5 days out. In the case of Frances, as it was off the east coast, the plots would have clearly shown the divergence of track guidance north to SC or WNW, and we wouldn't have had this track to Jacksonville stuff going on.
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corpusbreeze
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chicagopizza
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Problem with 5 day is...
no wind speeds or potential damage listed.
I think that wind speed would greatly help not only those living in the south/southeast, but nationally as well. Many people send kids to college, have relocated friends, older parents, etc. far from "home" and I don't think people, including myself, fully understand what it feels like to be in their shoes. Media can help or hinder a situation and even 1,000 miles away people can be impacted by these 5 day forecasts. Emotionally, I mean-not physically.
I think that wind speed would greatly help not only those living in the south/southeast, but nationally as well. Many people send kids to college, have relocated friends, older parents, etc. far from "home" and I don't think people, including myself, fully understand what it feels like to be in their shoes. Media can help or hinder a situation and even 1,000 miles away people can be impacted by these 5 day forecasts. Emotionally, I mean-not physically.
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