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PurdueWx80
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#21 Postby PurdueWx80 » Mon Sep 13, 2004 7:46 am

While the operational GEM has the SW Louisiana hit, it's ensembles agree more on a hit further west...near Houston.

http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/ensemble/images/pnm.0913.096.gif
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#22 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 13, 2004 8:42 am

Code: Select all

OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

  TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST     (AL902004) ON 20040913  1200 UTC

          ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS...   ...36 HRS...
          040913  1200   040914  0000   040914  1200   040915  0000

           LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
  BAMD    15.5N  58.6W   15.9N  60.7W   16.4N  62.5W   17.0N  63.8W
  BAMM    15.5N  58.6W   16.0N  60.8W   16.6N  62.8W   17.1N  64.4W
  A98E    15.5N  58.6W   15.9N  60.5W   16.4N  62.4W   17.1N  64.1W
  LBAR    15.5N  58.6W   16.0N  60.7W   16.6N  62.7W   17.2N  64.9W
  SHIP        25KTS          34KTS          44KTS          54KTS
  DSHP        25KTS          34KTS          44KTS          54KTS

          ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS...   ..120 HRS...
          040915  1200   040916  1200   040917  1200   040918  1200

           LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
  BAMD    17.6N  65.0W   18.8N  67.1W   19.1N  67.8W   20.5N  68.5W
  BAMM    17.7N  65.9W   18.9N  68.5W   19.5N  70.0W   20.2N  70.9W
  A98E    17.6N  65.9W   18.6N  69.4W   18.6N  72.8W   18.1N  76.0W
  LBAR    17.9N  66.9W   20.0N  70.4W   21.9N  72.8W   23.4N  73.8W
  SHIP        64KTS          77KTS          79KTS          79KTS
  DSHP        64KTS          56KTS          46KTS          39KTS

               ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
  LATCUR =  15.5N LONCUR =  58.6W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR =   9KT
  LATM12 =  15.2N LONM12 =  56.8W DIRM12 = 277DEG SPDM12 =   9KT
  LATM24 =  15.0N LONM24 =  55.0W
  WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   40NM WNDM12 =   20KT
  CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD =  150NM SDEPTH =   D
  RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM

  Wow it will be in my doorsteps as a storm.
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#23 Postby LCfromFL » Mon Sep 13, 2004 8:57 am

Wow, Cyc....you need to keep a good watch on that one...looks like you could be getting company While all eye are focused on Ivan, it's pretty easy to forget that there is a big ole ocean out there - just waiting to produce the next storm.
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#24 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 13, 2004 9:13 am

http://weather.net-waves.com/modelplot.htm

The grafic for 90L at link above by selecting in the menu 90.
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#25 Postby PurdueWx80 » Mon Sep 13, 2004 11:06 am

12Z GFS = Mobile Bay (furthest west run, yet)
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_066m.gif

12Z GEM = near New Orleans (straight north up 90W)
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#26 Postby x-y-no » Mon Sep 13, 2004 11:09 am

PurdueWx80 wrote:12Z GFS = Mobile Bay (furthest west run, yet)
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_066m.gif

12Z GEM = near New Orleans (straight north up 90W)


Beat me to it - I was just going to post this. Since the GFS has been consistantly to the right, this doesn't bode too well for New Orleans.
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#27 Postby PurdueWx80 » Mon Sep 13, 2004 11:17 am

12Z NOGAPS = MS/LA border...probably clip of SE LA first
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/WXM ... .namer.gif
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#28 Postby AL Chili Pepper » Mon Sep 13, 2004 11:31 am

00Z Euro has it nearing the LA Delta/MS coast region in 72 hrs.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 4091300!!/
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#29 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 13, 2004 12:46 pm

HURRICANE IVAN ANALYSED POSITION : 20.5N 84.1W



ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092004



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 13.09.2004 20.5N 84.1W INTENSE

00UTC 14.09.2004 21.4N 84.9W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 14.09.2004 23.0N 85.8W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 15.09.2004 24.7N 87.1W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 15.09.2004 26.9N 88.1W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 16.09.2004 28.9N 88.9W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 16.09.2004 31.2N 88.1W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

This is the UKMET 12 UTC run where it goes to MOBILE.
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#30 Postby PurdueWx80 » Mon Sep 13, 2004 12:49 pm

12UTC 16.09.2004 31.2N 88.1W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY!!!!!!!

Not that I trust the intensity forecast from the UKMET...but what the heck?!?!
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#31 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 13, 2004 1:35 pm

Code: Select all

  TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST     (AL902004) ON 20040913  1800 UTC

          ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS...   ...36 HRS...
          040913  1800   040914  0600   040914  1800   040915  0600

           LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
  BAMD    15.9N  59.9W   16.3N  61.7W   16.9N  63.3W   17.6N  64.7W
  BAMM    15.9N  59.9W   16.4N  62.0W   17.0N  63.8W   17.6N  65.5W
  A98E    15.9N  59.9W   16.4N  61.9W   16.8N  63.9W   17.1N  65.8W
  LBAR    15.9N  59.9W   16.2N  61.9W   16.8N  64.0W   17.4N  66.2W
  SHIP        25KTS          34KTS          45KTS          53KTS
  DSHP        25KTS          34KTS          45KTS          53KTS

          ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS...   ..120 HRS...
          040915  1800   040916  1800   040917  1800   040918  1800

           LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
  BAMD    18.3N  66.1W   19.1N  68.0W   19.2N  68.8W   20.3N  69.8W
  BAMM    18.2N  66.9W   19.4N  69.4W   19.7N  70.6W   20.4N  71.5W
  A98E    17.2N  67.8W   17.5N  71.6W   16.7N  75.5W   15.3N  79.1W
  LBAR    18.1N  68.1W   20.1N  71.6W   21.5N  74.1W   22.0N  75.6W
  SHIP        62KTS          71KTS          73KTS          72KTS
  DSHP        43KTS          52KTS          31KTS          32KTS

               ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
  LATCUR =  15.9N LONCUR =  59.9W DIRCUR = 284DEG SPDCUR =  10KT
  LATM12 =  15.4N LONM12 =  57.8W DIRM12 = 282DEG SPDM12 =  10KT
  LATM24 =  15.1N LONM24 =  55.9W
  WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   40NM WNDM12 =   20KT
  CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD =  150NM SDEPTH =   D
  RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM

These are the models for 90L.They move it thru Puerto Rico as a storm.
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#32 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 13, 2004 1:51 pm

http://weather.net-waves.com/td09.php

The 18:00 Tropical model suite at link.
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12Z ECMWF run

#33 Postby HenkL » Mon Sep 13, 2004 2:20 pm

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/animate/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!72!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2004091312!!!step/
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#34 Postby PurdueWx80 » Mon Sep 13, 2004 7:04 pm

00Z GFDL slips SE Louisiana and makes landfall on MS coast.

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_09.gif
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#35 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 13, 2004 7:35 pm

Code: Select all

  HURRICANE IVAN       (AL092004) ON 20040914  0000 UTC

          ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS...   ...36 HRS...
          040914  0000   040914  1200   040915  0000   040915  1200

           LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
  BAMD    21.6N  85.1W   23.5N  86.4W   25.8N  87.2W   28.0N  87.8W
  BAMM    21.6N  85.1W   23.7N  86.4W   25.8N  87.4W   27.9N  88.3W
  A98E    21.6N  85.1W   23.1N  85.8W   25.0N  86.7W   27.0N  87.8W
  LBAR    21.6N  85.1W   23.4N  86.2W   25.3N  87.0W   27.2N  87.4W
  SHIP       140KTS         135KTS         131KTS         129KTS
  DSHP       140KTS         135KTS         131KTS         129KTS

          ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS...   ..120 HRS...
          040916  0000   040917  0000   040918  0000   040919  0000

           LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
  BAMD    30.3N  88.3W   34.3N  88.3W   37.7N  84.7W   40.7N  79.5W
  BAMM    29.8N  89.2W   31.6N  89.9W   31.8N  86.4W   32.6N  82.9W
  A98E    28.1N  89.1W   25.4N  93.7W   24.1N  94.2W   22.1N  93.2W
  LBAR    29.3N  87.5W   32.0N  85.7W   34.1N  83.6W   36.7N  80.0W
  SHIP       124KTS         103KTS          83KTS          63KTS
  DSHP       124KTS          51KTS          29KTS          27KTS

               ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
  LATCUR =  21.6N LONCUR =  85.1W DIRCUR = 330DEG SPDCUR =   8KT
  LATM12 =  20.4N LONM12 =  84.1W DIRM12 = 312DEG SPDM12 =   8KT
  LATM24 =  19.5N LONM24 =  82.8W
  WNDCUR =  140KT RMAXWD =   15NM WNDM12 =  140KT
  CENPRS =  914MB OUTPRS = 1006MB OUTRAD =  200NM SDEPTH =   D
  RD34NE =  190NM RD34SE =  175NM RD34SW =  140NM RD34NW = 150NM

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#36 Postby tronbunny » Mon Sep 13, 2004 8:00 pm

The A98E has fallen off the wagon again!
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#37 Postby iluvseashore » Mon Sep 13, 2004 8:03 pm

I just want to know if there was a trend in the northern movement noted in 5pm package wouldn't we be seeing it show up in the model runs by now?
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#38 Postby MBryant » Mon Sep 13, 2004 8:13 pm

Let's see...I'm at aproximately 94 Long and 30 Lat. I like hearing that 98A is cracked.
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#39 Postby tronbunny » Mon Sep 13, 2004 8:22 pm

The 9/12 12Z tropical suite had more northerly swing starting 9/14Z- now.
as does todays 12Z GFDL.
Todays 12Z trop. suite and the UKMET have a bigger N swing at 12Z on 9/14.
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0z Global Canadian Model

#40 Postby montrealboy » Mon Sep 13, 2004 10:26 pm

http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/model_for ... bal_e.html

Landfall at AL/FL.
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