Trough continues to dig -- pushing S of LA coast now

[calidoug]

The trough, like any other feature, is having an effect. The only question is, what effect, and how big is it?

It's hilarious to watch people freak out over an *observation*.

It's either, "That isn't happening!" or "So what?!!!!! It won't affect Ivan!!!!!!!!"

[BillC]

Lindloo,

In Central Florida, a little northeast of Orlando.

[Lindaloo]

Okay thanks! I am positive you dont want this storm then.

[Sean in New Orleans]

WAFB Meteorologist in Baton Rouge, LA just said that the trough is expected to lift out.

It is--unfortunately, it likely won't have an effect on Ivan's path--that is why alot can and likely will change tomorrow...

[HurryKane]

The trough, like any other feature, is having an effect. The only question is, what effect, and how big is it?

It's hilarious to watch people freak out over an *observation*.

It's either, "That isn't happening!" or "So what?!!!!! It won't affect Ivan!!!!!!!!"

All an exercise in denial (it ain't just a river in Egypt).

I am currently practicing my "GO TROUGH GO" cheers.

[BillC]

It's safe to say ... I don't want anyone to have this storm!

[FritzPaul]

FritzPaul,

Remember ... wasn't that long ago that the bullseye was on Tampa Bay. The probabilities shift and sometimes the TPC (and the models) are a tad slow ... and sometimes they are accurate.

My point was there is a lot of uncertainty.

[calidoug]

HurryKane, exactly.

It's like they didn't even read the NHC discussion:

" A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY IS ERODING THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF IVAN.
THIS SHOULD INDUCE A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST VERY SOON. BY AROUND 48
HOURS...IT IS EXPECTED THAT IVAN WILL BE MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO."

Hello? Note the agreement with the observation, and they go even further and say that the ridge erosion will induce the N turn...

But what do they know, they're just the National Hurricane Center...

[BillC]

FritzPaul,

I went back and reread your post. You are absolutely right. I scanned when I should have read.

I couldn't agree more with your original post. Sorry!

[FritzPaul]

No problem

[Sanibel]

The storm is obviously starting a gradual pull-up and through the Yucatan Channel. The Gulf Stream that flows through there channels the warmer Caribbean waters up into the Gulf Of Mexico. If Ivan stays over it as it passes through the channel it leaves a better chance for maintained intensity.

Talk to me tomorrow. Asking "what is doing that" before simply observing what it is actually doing is like putting the cart before the horse. Though the real answer would probably be the ridge finally reaching its west end combined with weak trough influences on weather boundaries...

[HurryKane]

HurryKane, exactly.

It's like they didn't even read the NHC discussion:

" A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY IS ERODING THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF IVAN.
THIS SHOULD INDUCE A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST VERY SOON. BY AROUND 48
HOURS...IT IS EXPECTED THAT IVAN WILL BE MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO."

Hello? Note the agreement with the observation, and they go even further and say that the ridge erosion will induce the N turn...

But what do they know, they're just the National Hurricane Center...

Well now, I didn't mean to imply that people had or had not read the discussion.

I can read all the pro and official forecasts for days and still the strongest thought in my head is "It won't come near me, please, it won't come near me, GO TROUGH GO." Which is rather mean for my Florida panhandle-livin' friends

[rtd2]

VALLEY IS ERODING THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF IVAN.
THIS SHOULD INDUCE A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST VERY SOON. BY AROUND 48
HOURS...

OKAY I will bite on that comment...it still keeps Ivan in my original L/F track of N.O. to P'COLA. Now with that said my friend I HAVENT seen any sign of this turn as of yet(that was suppoe to ALREADY HAPPENED) yes he jogs n then back west thus creating new post piling on this server! But given NHC'S the pros just where would 48 HOURS FROM now put Ivan.... given He continues @9-10 mph THATS roughly 480 miles before he turns? seems the NHC will continue to shift track futher west~ time (48 hrs?) will tell!