Evening Ivan forecast... slightly farther left

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#21 Postby rainstorm » Tue Sep 14, 2004 8:19 pm

derek has been excellent
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Ixolib
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#22 Postby Ixolib » Tue Sep 14, 2004 8:21 pm

Sanibel wrote:Pascagoula, Mississippi, after crashing over a barrier island named Horn Island...


Hopefully not "completely" off topic... Just a little MS Coast Barrier Island trivia... Horn Island is wildlife preserve, about 11 miles long E to W, and about 3/4 mile wide at its max. Ship Island, just a few miles to its west, is the home of Fort Massachusettes (sp), and it too is a preserve. No inhabitants on either except for park rangers and the occassional campers. Ship Island was split in two by Camille, and to this day, the split is still there - known ever since as "Camille Cut". Deep enough to run a 40 foot boat through!!
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CYCLONE MIKE
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#23 Postby CYCLONE MIKE » Tue Sep 14, 2004 8:25 pm

Look at the latest WV loops of Ivan. He is flattening out again and almost looks as if he is pointing in the direction he will go. Which looks more to the NW. Opinions, Comments?
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RonStallcup
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#24 Postby RonStallcup » Tue Sep 14, 2004 8:33 pm

In the Pensacola area, I would be where you're going to be
by Wednesday afternoon.

The winds will start to increase from that time.

Thursday dawn will be roughest for us.

Friday back to Tropical force winds.

This is what I'm going by using my horse sense.

Things my change.
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vespersparrow
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#25 Postby vespersparrow » Tue Sep 14, 2004 8:36 pm

'preciate it. Stay safe.
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#26 Postby RonStallcup » Tue Sep 14, 2004 8:45 pm

vespersparrow wrote:'preciate it. Stay safe.


This may help.

These are just how see it at this time:
Storm is tracking NNW.
At this angle it will wobble towards New Orleans-ish.

The more west it goes the better we are in that:

Navarre is looking: better, power out
Milton: OK, power out roof damage
Scenic Highway: Power out, roof damage but still there
Downtown: Power out
Perdido Key: Bad
Mobile: bad
New Orleans bad.

It WILL turn east, the big question is when?
If it happens over land we are better.
If it happens over Gulf Bad.

The local Emergecy Operations Center is VERY good.
And I would follow what they say.

Ron
Pensacola, Fla.
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caneman

#27 Postby caneman » Tue Sep 14, 2004 8:49 pm

MY gut call is it will happen over water and bury between Pensacola and Panama City.
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vespersparrow
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#28 Postby vespersparrow » Tue Sep 14, 2004 8:51 pm

Great...I live a mile from Perdido and work immediately off Scenic Highway.....
It's times like this I wish I was a little girl again and could go crawl up in my dad's arms....
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#29 Postby Cape Verde » Tue Sep 14, 2004 8:53 pm

CYCLONE MIKE wrote:Look at the latest WV loops of Ivan. He is flattening out again and almost looks as if he is pointing in the direction he will go. Which looks more to the NW. Opinions, Comments?
<P>It's obvious that I'm going to bed tonight without the answer, but I think your concern is valid. And I hope anybody planning to stay in New Orleans based on old forecasts thinks so, too.
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#30 Postby RonStallcup » Tue Sep 14, 2004 8:54 pm

caneman wrote:MY gut call is it will happen over water and bury between Pensacola and Panama City.


I've had the same gut feeling.

Some FSU models show this.

I'm signing off for awhile to continue to pack.

I figure, if my place is damage, I'll have to move anyway.

This Hurricane will not break us and I'm not ready to right my Social Securty number on my arm with a marker.
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RonStallcup
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#31 Postby RonStallcup » Tue Sep 14, 2004 8:56 pm

Sorry for the gammar mistakes.

Mind+Storm+keyboard = mistakes.
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