Ivan is rapidly weakening

[CaptinCrunch]

HURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 53
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED SEP 15 2004

THE LAST RECONNAISSANCE MISSION CONCLUDED AT 12Z...AND THE NEXT
AIRCRAFT WILL BE ARRIVING MOMENTARILY. PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF
127 KT DURING THE LAST PASS SUPPORT ABOUT 115 KT AT THE
SURFACE...AND THAT WILL BE THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY.
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS THE 50 NM WIDE EYE HAS BECOME A LITTLE
BETTER DEFINED WITH COOLING CLOUD TOPS. COMPETING INFLUENCES MAKE
THE INTENSITY FORECAST DIFFICULT. THE HURRICANE IS NOW PASSING
OVER A WARM GULF EDDY WHICH COULD AID INTENSIFICATION...ALTHOUGH
DATA COLLECTED BY A NOAA RESEARCH AIRCRAFT YESTERDAY SUGGEST THE
EDDY MAY NOT BE AS POTENT AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT USING SATELLITE
MEASUREMENTS. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN IS WELL-ESTABLISHED
NORTH OF THE CYCLONE AT THE PRESENT TIME WITH NO SHEAR EVIDENT. ON
THE OTHER HAND...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR IN THE WEST
SEMICIRCLE THAT COULD STILL PENETRATE THE CORE...AND THE SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE NEAR LANDFALL. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT I
EXPECT SOME NET WEAKENING OF IVAN PRIOR TO LANDFALL...BUT STILL
EXPECT IT TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A MAJOR HURRICANE.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 350/11...AND IVAN LOOKS TO BE MAKING
THE EXPECTED NORTHWARD TURN. IVAN REMAINS ON THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
TRACK AND THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...
ALTHOUGH THE NEW TRACK IS JUST A BIT FASTER TO THE COASTLINE.
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED UNTIL WELL AFTER
LANDFALL...WHERE THERE ARE A VARIETY OF POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS FOR THE
REMNANTS OF IVAN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW THE
POSSIBILITY OF A MAJOR FLOODING EVENT OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.


a Maybe, Maybe NOT forecast

[Thunder44]

Ed Rapport from the NHC on CNN just said that there may be slow weakening, but they still expect a Cat 3 or 4 at landfall.

[Mello1]

is it me or are people not looking at the shear #1 or the colder water temps now that it is past the eddy and moving more north it is going to keep on going down.In fact the best wind i see right now is 129 MPH.


110 Max at landfall

The water temps are not that cool.

[dennis1x1]

i agree saitex...it isnt rapidly weakening....its very slowly weakening....but this trend has continued now for 20 hours or so......if it continues even at this rate it will mean a huge difference..

and recon is only supporting 125 now....at least based on the highest found so far.

URNT12 KNHC 151432
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 15/1438Z
B. 27 DEG 18 MIN N
88 DEG 02 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2579 M
D. 80 KT
E. 139 DEG 045 NM
F. 212 DEG 123 KT
G. 126 DEG 030 NM
H. 940 MB
I. 11 C/ 3075 M
J. 17 C/ 3038 M
K. 15 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C40
N. 12345/7
O. 0.1/1.0 NM
P. AF963 4009A IVAN OB 04
MAX FL WIND 123 KT SE QUAD 1427Z.

[rdcrds]

I know people remember charley and the water temps off my coast but this is diffeent and way north and with the slight lower water temps and also the shear that has set in this is be 110 mph or less at landfall MAX!

[Thunder44]

is it me or are people not looking at the shear #1 or the colder water temps now that it is past the eddy and moving more north it is going to keep on going down.In fact the best wind i see right now is 129 MPH.


110 Max at landfall

Ivan doesn't look sheared to me. If there is any, it's little.

[caneman]

I know people remember charley and the water temps off my coast but this is diffeent and way north and with the slight lower water temps and also the shear that has set in this is be 110 mph or less at landfall MAX!

Do people not read the discussions? Come on. This from the 11:00 discussion. Shear has not affected the system yet.

THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN IS WELL-ESTABLISHED
NORTH OF THE CYCLONE AT THE PRESENT TIME WITH NO SHEAR EVIDENT

[tronbunny]

Could be weaker - one could only hope...
But, I would not want to be anywhere near that thing unless it was cat1.

[dennis1x1]

THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN IS WELL-ESTABLISHED
NORTH OF THE CYCLONE AT THE PRESENT TIME WITH NO SHEAR EVIDENT

well a hurricane contains a north AND a south......dont just give us half the story

[B-Bear]

I know people remember charley and the water temps off my coast but this is diffeent and way north and with the slight lower water temps and also the shear that has set in this is be 110 mph or less at landfall MAX!

Nope.

[flashflood1998]

i'm with you saitex and have been saying it all morning, but some people feel the need to come here and make their bold statements with no substantiation. they must get some kind "against the crowd" thrill from it, but it's really annoying to read.

[caneman]

THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN IS WELL-ESTABLISHED
NORTH OF THE CYCLONE AT THE PRESENT TIME WITH NO SHEAR EVIDENT

well a hurricane contains a north AND a south......dont just give us half the story

OK the other 1/2 is that nowhere in the conversation does it say shear is presently affecting the system. He stated shear is presently affecting the system. It isn't.