evening jeanne forecast... toward florida

[LaBreeze]

The way that it is being pronounced it should be spelled "Jean." Jeanne is the French spelling and should be pronounced correctly.

[gkrangers]

The spelling really irks me.

I keep wanting to call it Gee-Anne or Genie...

[FLAgirl]

gkrnagers - the problem is that everyone else IS taking them seriously. It is misinformation that people take as gospel. And look at some of the posts here on this site! "It's DEFINATELY going to GOM." It's NOT going to the Carolina's. I don't know where you are from, but when people in S. FLA see they are in this "cone of risk" on their local news stations, the bread, water and batteries fly off the shelves and even the sweetest, kindest people you'd ever want to meet become these animals who act like they have only 5 days left to live.

I'm asking that the NHC and everyone else involved in running these computer models take more responsibility and to tweek what they need to tweek to come up with more accurate forecasting.

Just my opinion.

[gkrangers]

They do tweak what they need to tweak to come up with more "accurate" forecasting, but 5 days out, whether its a model, model + human input, or just human input will be off.

Its not that they are being lazy and just following the models...if they followed the models, the Jeanne track would be dual..one track taking it to Miami and the other taking it to Bermuda.

I'm from New Jersey, but just started college in Daytona. Got my first taste of hurricane reality when I had to evacuate for Frances and I've been home eversince because my school chose to stay closed due to the long range Ivan forecast which, as we know, at that time stated SW FL as a possible landfall. Their hands were tied because all the students were scattered all over the world, and had we all came back, then had to leave again if the forecasts were right, it would have been insanity...

The NHC and private forecasters (like Derek) always make sure to make people wary of the huge margins of error in their tracks and forecasts. Some local mets do it too, and people block that out and think they know where its going from 2 weeks out.

[FLAgirl]

gkrangers says -

I dont mean to sound callous, but it just bugs me when people get on forecasters for being "wrong".


WELL THEN WHO SHOULD WE BLAME!!! THE SPORTS ANNOUNCER??

[gkrangers]

gkrangers says -

I dont mean to sound callous, but it just bugs me when people get on forecasters for being "wrong".


WELL THEN WHO SHOULD WE BLAME!!! THE SPORTS ANNOUNCER??

Try pressing quote.

You do realize that forecasting hurricanes and weather in general is one of the most difficult things to do? Mother nature is impossible to predict and we're lucky they do as good a job as they do.

Maybe down the road we'll have a better understanding of hurricanes and weather patterns, and hopefully better forecasts ensue. Till then, the forecasters make do with what they have and do the best they can under the circumstances that they face.

You want more, but there is nothing more for them to give.

[FLAgirl]

Maybe you're right gk. But I am tuning out these long range forecasts for now, as I said in my first post.

[gkrangers]

Maybe you're right gk. But I am tuning out these long range forecasts for now, as I said in my first post.

I do too, thats what you should do. I understand what your point was about people panicking....they will still panick even if the mets start screaming "DON'T PANIC, THERE IS ZERO CONFIDENCE IN THIS TRACK, BUT WE ARE REQUIRED TO MAKE 5 DAY ONES!"

[Patrick99]

I'm with you Flagirl. The entire Keys were evacuated based on Ivan's 5-day forecast and we know how that turned out. I'm concerned that the lack of accuracy in the 5-day forecast is costing the state millions of dollars and crippling tourism. I'm not suggesting we don't take storms seriously, just recognize the limitations of any forecast beyond 5 days and react more cautiously to it.

I thought that evacuation was a gross overreaction, for a storm that was still basically traveling due west and was several days away even in the unlikely event of a hard right turn.

[Aimless]

but... what if it had been right???

I do not take the 5 day as a given, but as a possibility. Get ready, monitor, don't buy 50 lbs of meat on sale....

Floyd's evacuation was a nightmare ...It taught me I would much prefer to evacuate too early and needlessly from some areas than wait and get stuck on the highway without gas or a hotel.

again.. what if it had been correct?

[Innotech]

Jeanne's eye is about to visit the El Seibo mountains

[OtherHD]

Jeanne's eye is about to visit the El Seibo mountains

You don't say !~

[Innotech]

Jeanne's eye is about to visit the El Seibo mountains

You don't say !~

there are people on htis forum who believe otherwise.

[cswitwer]

At five days, I buy gas and spare food and check all the batteries and water supplies, just in case.

At three days I plot my evacuation route and contact family.

So I like having the five & three... I just consider the five day forecast something to start watching, not something definitive. Also, with the five day, I can do things that I would normally do when the storm is forecast to arrive (ie. put the car in the shop for repairs... wouldn't want to have the car stuck in the garage waiting on a part, and not be able to leave).

Just my two cents. I've only been on the coast for 2 hurricane seasons, and I'm now learning to just hang back and watch. The locals here are pretty laid back and when they start lining up for gas & plywood, I usually get ready to head out. Haven't had to evacuate anywhere this year yet... let's hope THAT trend verifies.

[hibiscushouse]

Had Ivan followed the anticipated track towards Key West, it was supposed to make landfall many days ago, and it was supposed to be a strong cat 4, correct? If the scenario would have played out, it would have been a very big event for the Fl. Keys. I don't think the evacuation was unnecessary or premature considering the events at the time and the time frame within which they were to happen.
It just so happened that things changed. Well, good for them. Had they not have changed, then they would have been prepared.
I also think that with the track forecasted so many days out, it helps to get more supplies down to the area for preparations. I saw that in my hometown as trucks kept coming in with additional plywood "in the morning". And you should see all the water bottles stacked up in the grocery stores as of yesterday. Maybe it's just me, but I didn't have any trouble finding water to load up on this time.
Some of this may be related to the other two that have been around here lately.
But, I think it helps give people more time to prepare. I can't get over how many more people put plywood up in my home town. I believe it's b/c they had more time to do it, and more supplies kept coming into town for them to do it with.

[Deenac813]

and I'm not the forecaster responsible, but cangialosi may even be better than myself. I'll sur ebe watching this closely during the next couple of days and will likely have to make some prelim preps

Derek, this post from you scares me! I remember when you made the post about you not making preps for Ivan and thought yeah right. Now I am humbled and see how right you are. I am looking forward to the post stating you are not making preps

[gulfcoaster53]

As has been pointed out several times on this thread, if you don't want to consider the 5 day forecasts, don't. But you may want to re-read the disclaimer the NHC uses for its 4-5 day projections:

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

Ivan was forcast to enter Fla west coast near Ft. Myers overnight Monday on the 5 day forecast track published at 11 AM last Thursday. The storm was within the stipulated distance overnight Monday (just north of Cuban west coast about 250 miles wsw of Ft. Myers). It's frustrating to prepare oor evacuate, but I for one am glad to be still standing despite several false alarms and direct hit forecasts on the Sarasota area for Charley and Ivan. The models respond to data as it's input, they are not self contained predictive machines. they analyze all data and come up with probabilities. It's a statistical exercise based on as much data and past tendencies as is available. I will admit to having decreasing faith in their efficacy, but their weakness does not transfer to the NHC. I think they're doing a great job. And finally, since this thread started out about Derek, I'll add my own "Well done" on Ivan.

[Aimless]

Perhaps if they would simply eliminate the center line in the 5 day. Too many people only look at the center instead of the cone.

[tallbunch]

is there graphics available?

[rbaker]

im with and have been with abloshing these insane 5 day forecast. All we have to do is look at Ivan where they had him 5 days or even a week ago. These tracks are way off with huge ramifacations as we just saw with ivan. Plus the models they go by can't seem to pick up developing systems such as ridges forming after 72 hrs. This creates panic esp. in people who see tv and news reports and start to hord fuel, plywood, etc. Rumors also spread like in fla where they said they were gas rations. I know cause I saw it.
Now I know what the tpc or others here are going to say, that they do this to evucauate people like in the keys. And they would rather be safe than sorry. But as we seen with Ivan, schools, public offices, evucations were not needed this far out.
Finally, with these five day forecast, if they are wrong consistanly then the "cry wolf" syndrome will take place, and people will become complaceit about hurricanes hitting their area because it didn't.