Very interesting

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9:48
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#21 Postby 9:48 » Mon Sep 20, 2004 1:30 pm

2PM Miami Beach obs
MIAMI BEACH N/A 86 73 65 W10G16 29.78F

near gales in St Augustine
St. Aug C-MAN station reporting 32kts sustained, gusts to 35kt
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AmeliaIslandr
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#22 Postby AmeliaIslandr » Mon Sep 20, 2004 1:38 pm

Just north of Jax we're at NE 24/gusts 33 drizzly and cool!
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#23 Postby charleston_hugo_veteran » Mon Sep 20, 2004 1:41 pm

AmeliaIslandr wrote:Just north of Jax we're at NE 24/gusts 33 drizzly and cool!


it is cool here too! It was 54 when I woke up @ 5am....
its 72 now...SOOOOO NICE!
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#24 Postby mf_dolphin » Mon Sep 20, 2004 1:42 pm

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/quikscat.php?station=41009

You can see both the Ivan remnants and Jeanne on this :-)
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ladygatorslayer
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#25 Postby ladygatorslayer » Mon Sep 20, 2004 1:47 pm

Bellarose wrote:Same here, in Tampa.

PS....hi, Ladygator!!


Hi Bella!! :)
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#26 Postby sfwx » Mon Sep 20, 2004 1:55 pm

000
FXUS62 KMLB 201835
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
200 PM EDT MON SEP 20 2004

...SHOWERS MOVING WEST FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL OVERNIGHT AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY...

.DISCUSSION...LOW CENTER (REMNANT OF IVAN) JUST OFF THE SE COAST OF
FL. SOME HINT IN RADAR DEPICTION THAT CENTER IS NEAR THE MARTIN CTY
COASTLINE. BANDED PCPN PRIMARILY N OF THE LOW CENTER CONTS TO MOVE
ONSHORE WITH OCNL HVY RAINFALL. CURRENT BAND IMPINGING ON VOLUSIA
CTY COAST SHOULD PIVOT TO THE N OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO WHILE
ANOTHER ORGNANIZED BAND OFF THE THE COAST SOUTH OF THE CAPE WILL
IMPACT S BREVARD...THRU ST LUCIE CTY THRU THE LATE AFTN. STRONG
MOISTURE ADV FROM THE EAST IN CONFLUENT LOW LVL FLOW ALONG WITH WEAK
MID LVL DIFF VORT ADV SUPPORTING RA. THE ETA (12KM) IS ONLY GUIDANCE
THAT TRIES TO DEPICT TIMING OF PCPN BANDS OVERNIGHT AND SHOWS BAND
ABT TO MOVE ONSHORE OVER THE SE COAST TO LIFT N OVERNIGHT. WHILE
EXACT TIMING/PLACEMENT IS UNCERTAIN GUIDANCE AND LOW STRUCTURE
SUGGESTS BANDS WILL BE TRANSITORY. DO NOT PLAN ON ISSUING WATCHES
ATTM BECAUSE OF THIS EXPECTED TRANSLATION AND INDIVIDUAL CELLS
MOVING 30+ MPH...STILL HVY RAINS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ESP ALONG THE
COAST WITH SPEED CONV ENHANCING LOW LVL FORCING.

HIGH SURF ADV WILL CONTINUE WITH EXPECTED COMBINED SEAS OF UP TO 10
FEET NEARSHORE. WILL DROP LAKE WND ADV WITH THIS PACKAGE.

TUE...MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN TAKING THE WEAKENING SURFACE
CIRCULATION GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND INTO THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. TRAILING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS CURRENTLY
EAST OF GA/SC WILL TRACK ACROSS EC FLORIDA. CONVECTIVE BANDS MAY
AGAIN PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND BREEZY CONDITIONS.
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL AGAIN HOLD TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S.
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tronbunny
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#27 Postby tronbunny » Mon Sep 20, 2004 1:58 pm

holy cow!
Watch out GOM!
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#28 Postby cswitwer » Mon Sep 20, 2004 2:05 pm

I stand corrected. Yesterday I said this scenario was "unlikely".

Good grief, what a year!
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#29 Postby Johnny » Mon Sep 20, 2004 2:33 pm

Hey Purdue, once this gets into the Gulf, what kind of development are we looking at? Are conditions favorable for development in the Gulf? Thanks.
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#30 Postby KeyLargoDave » Mon Sep 20, 2004 2:46 pm

Man, no one can get a break. Big area of strong convection, possibly gale force winds and dangerous lightning, coming ashore at Ft. Pierce, that "spawn of ivan" low. Check out MIA nexrad:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/latest/DS.p19r0/si.kamx.shtml
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staggy
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#31 Postby staggy » Mon Sep 20, 2004 2:52 pm

KeyLargoDave wrote:Man, no one can get a break. Big area of strong convection, possibly gale force winds and dangerous lightning, coming ashore at Ft. Pierce, that "spawn of ivan" low. Check out MIA nexrad:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/latest/DS.p19r0/si.kamx.shtml



check it out on Melbourne:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p19r0/si.kmlb.shtml
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#32 Postby TampaFl » Mon Sep 20, 2004 3:01 pm

Cloud deck lowering in Tampa with rain moving in from the east northeast. :eek: :eek:
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Matthew5

#33 Postby Matthew5 » Mon Sep 20, 2004 3:14 pm

It appears that a weak tropical depression maybe forming off Floridas east coast!!! :wink:
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ColdFront77

#34 Postby ColdFront77 » Mon Sep 20, 2004 5:58 pm

There has been a surface low off the southeast Florida coast for the last several hours.
Surface weather maps have continued to show "a red L" off the southeast Florida coast.
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