Nothing behind Jeanne...BUT LOOK SOUTH...

[Anonymous]

Ran a shortwave of the SW Caribbean wave. I believe one of the surface centers has drifted west and into Central America on its way to the Pacific. We are talking weak pulses here not single disturbances.

As happens here in this situation the Amazonian ITCZ flow continues to send new convection pulses into the general Low pressure pocket. Another has drifted off Colombia and looks to be grabbing a second center.

This wave is 50-50 or less from the looks of it. However this talk of NOGAPS and a lingering Low pressure area in good climatology lends worth to a possible persisting feature.

As always, we'll see if it does another diurnal improvement tomorrow...

Looks like GFS, Canadian, NOGAPS, and UKMET agree now on bringing a Low across the Yucatan Penninsula and into the Bay of Campache in a week or so...

Canadian, UKMET...
http://met.psu.edu/tropical/tcgengifs/

GFS
http://www.arl.noaa.gov/ready/gfsanim.html

NOGAPS
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/PUBLIC/

[Sanibel]

The less than 50-50 has panned out. Still some sparse convection there but there's some kind of upper trough or something just to the north and the upper atmosphere appears to have gone negative. I'll write it off if it doesn't re-fire soon...