00Z GEM: "Here comes our next storm."

[Hurricanehink]

Yea, models are ok, but until something actually does form, I will take this with a grain of salt.

[vbhoutex]

This is the second model I have seen developing something in the BOC in that time frame and moving it N to the GOM coast. As stated, it is still too far our to sound the alarm, but it is never too early to be watching for the trend which is our friend. I like the second run of the GGEM much less as it brings that system into my area. However, we do need the rain, just not a huge storm.

[Kludge]

But wait...Ivan DID make landfall at TX/LA area...!!! The model was right... but juuuuuust a bit premature.

[Johnny]

How can you say this model did good with Ivan? It predicted landfall around the TX/LA area until about 36 hours out.


Really? I was on here during Ivans birth and when he came ashore. I sure don't remember models bringing into the TX/La border at all.

vbhoutex: Yep, we need the rain alright. I sure would like to see something somewhat develop and bring us some much needed rain. I'm sick of watering the plants and grass.

[Canebo]

vbhoutex: Yep, we need the rain alright. I sure would like to see something somewhat develop and bring us some much needed rain. I'm sick of watering the plants and grass.

Man, do we ever need the rain. Even these little fronts that have been moving down aren't forecast to produce any rain. My buddy is getting married on one of those yachts that goes out into the bay from Kemah next week. At least this "possible system" will give him something else to be worried about.

[PurdueWx80]

Uh, the GEM was the only model bringing Ivan to the Gulf Coast from more than a week out. It was also very consistent with this, while the GFS and it's babies were taking the storm WAY north of Hispaniola. That's how the GEM outperformed every other model. In the end, it was a bit far west, but you can't call it bad for catching on to something from 10 days out.

Also, more than one or two models are showing development out of this Caribbean wave (GFS, Eta, UKMET off and on, Euro off and on, GEM, etc.) - when this happens we can be relatively certain of development. We obviously have a wave that is being enhanced by the upper low over the Caribbean...once that UL backs away there is nothing but land to stop this thing.

The way I see it, there are 2 options with this storm - 1) it will get stuck over the Yucatan or Central America and see it's fate there 2) it will cross the Yucatan, sit over the steamy waters of the BOC/Gulf and develop further...then wait for something to pull it out (i.e. an upper low or CONUS trough). Y'all can knock the models all you want, but they have been built on decades of solid research so you need to think twice before calling them crap.

[vbhoutex]

Y'all can knock the models all you want, but they have been built on decades of solid research so you need to think twice before calling them crap.

Amen to that Purdue!! I do use the models but I sure as heck don't hug them. But they have proven their worth over the years far and above my or anyone else's proverbial "gut" feeling. My "gut" feelings are indeed part of what I use, but they are based on 50 years of living along the Gulf coast and abserving the weather and ther tropics. Each model has different biases, but just because they do not nail the track or intensity of every system does not make them crap.

[PurdueWx80]

Y'all can knock the models all you want, but they have been built on decades of solid research so you need to think twice before calling them crap.

Amen to that Purdue!! I do use the models but I sure as heck don't hug them. But they have proven their worth over the years far and above my or anyone else's proverbial "gut" feeling. My "gut" feelings are indeed part of what I use, but they are based on 50 years of living along the Gulf coast and abserving the weather and ther tropics. Each model has different biases, but just because they do not nail the track or intensity of every system does not make them crap.

Well put. I'm by no mean hugging the models either...I realize they have their problems. We are in the Gulf/Caribbean season now, so that alone should tell us to look there (as should the excessively warm waters there). What we should also think about is the lack of TX hits after October 1st...that would say no storm should hit TX from this point on (although this does seem to be a season of anomaly).

[HollynLA]

I've got my mind on fall (although the front is not going to reach us after all ), I'm pretty burnt out on tracking systems but looks like it's not time to relax *just* yet, although that remains to be seen.

[Stormsfury]

Y'all can knock the models all you want, but they have been built on decades of solid research so you need to think twice before calling them crap.

Model outputs are for guidance use only, ESPECIALLY in dealing with the MR, and synoptics, trends, overall pattern, etc ... this is what I look for in model outputs from many of the various models, and ENS members. Short term forecasting is a much different animal, and you're looking for a more of a pinpoint to prog the worst of the weather effects ...

In MR forecasting, a lot different .. my speciality is more in MR prognosis (during Southeastern CAD events, and tropical), but by far, one of the best in the business is DT (Dave Tolleris-WxRisk)... brazen at times, but really knows his stuff ...

Only long-range prognoses I'll attempt to do is seasonal tropical cyclone activity ...

Agreed with PurdueWx on this quote above ... the forecaster has to act as an interpreter or a safecracker to unlock the code and a successful forecast ...

SF