Most surprising storm of year (SO FAR)...

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What was the most surprising storm of the year so far?

Hurricane Charley
28
45%
Hurricane Frances
2
3%
Hurricane Ivan
18
29%
Hurricane Jeanne
14
23%
 
Total votes: 62

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MGC
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#21 Postby MGC » Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:58 pm

I voted for Charley due to its rapid intensification......MGC
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Anonymous

#22 Postby Anonymous » Sat Oct 16, 2004 8:54 pm

I went with Charley due to its rapid intensification and last minute turn as the most surprising storm. Being affected by 2 tropical systems (Bonnie and Clyde/Charle) in 24 hrs was pretty surprising too. Tornado damage in Jax from such a week storm Bonnie was a surprise to me.

Who would've expected to see a map like this back in the beginning of the Cane Season???

http://www.skeetobite.com/weather/image ... jnpath.gif
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#23 Postby deguy50 » Sun Oct 17, 2004 7:17 pm

charlie
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DoctorHurricane2003

#24 Postby DoctorHurricane2003 » Sun Oct 17, 2004 8:27 pm

Ivan because of the loop around to hit Texas.

But all storms have their surprising moments :)

I wouldn't say Jeanne because of the anticyclonic loop because some models actually forecasted it to do that.
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#25 Postby Wnghs2007 » Sun Oct 17, 2004 8:29 pm

DoctorHurricane2003 wrote:Ivan because of the loop around to hit Texas.

But all storms have their surprising moments :)

I wouldn't say Jeanne because of the anticyclonic loop because some models actually forecasted it to do that.



Yes Lol Ivan I and II were trips. :lol:
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#26 Postby Stormsfury » Sun Oct 17, 2004 8:51 pm

DoctorHurricane2003 wrote:Ivan because of the loop around to hit Texas.

But all storms have their surprising moments :)


IMHO, I'm not inclined to call Ivan - Part II, Ivan ... but that's MHO ...

I wouldn't say Jeanne because of the anticyclonic loop because some models actually forecasted it to do that.


Yep, and my prognostic discussions indicated that Jeanne would do so and be a threat to Florida one week out ... several models jumped onto the idea, the EC being the first, followed by the other globals, and the GFS being the last (as usual) ... but the overall synoptic pattern supported the anticyclonic loop well beyond the 7 day range even before the globals jumped onto the idea that was setting up ...

SF
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Wnghs2007
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#27 Postby Wnghs2007 » Sun Oct 17, 2004 8:57 pm

Stormsfury wrote:
DoctorHurricane2003 wrote:Ivan because of the loop around to hit Texas.

But all storms have their surprising moments :)


IMHO, I'm not inclined to call Ivan - Part II, Ivan ... but that's MHO ...



Well yes I am not inclined to do that either. Because I believe that it was the M storm. But oh well :sigh:
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DoctorHurricane2003

#28 Postby DoctorHurricane2003 » Sun Oct 17, 2004 9:30 pm

I believe it was too.....but heck, it was surprising anyways...lol.
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#29 Postby wxguy25 » Sun Oct 17, 2004 9:39 pm

I voted for Charley even in spite of ivan's antics for three reasons:

1. The rapid intensification from CAT 2 status to CAT 4 prior to landfall as shortwave ridging developed over the system.
2. The early/unexpected turn, and landfall south of the forecasted position.
3. Track nearly right up the I-4 corridor through Orlando, Volusia county and Daytona Beach as a CAT 1 hurricane with extensive damage along it(recall the Planes that were tossed around at Orlando Executive). Thats as close to a worst case scenario as you can get IMO.

Ivan would come in second for me.

BTW this is USAwx1 incase anyone didn't catch my last post in the winter weather forum.
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#30 Postby The Big Dog » Mon Oct 18, 2004 10:05 am

I say Jeanne because of how everyone, this board excepted, wrote her off as dead. I remember saying as I rode it out, "this wasn't supposed to happen."
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#31 Postby Seele » Mon Oct 18, 2004 4:44 pm

I have to say Ivan, not because of Ivan II, but just because it kept refusing to follow the forecasted path. The 3-day forecast track first took it into Barbados, it went to Grenada. Then to Hispaniola, went south. Jamaica, very close, but south. Went south of Grand Cayman, but not far south enough. Was supposed to hit Havana, went south and west. Only when it went into the Gulf did the forecast pan out.

If you go back and look at the forecasts for Jeanne, other than when Puerto Rico and Hispaniola disrupted her were the forecasts very off. After it cleared the mountains, the forecasts very quickly predicted the loop around to Florida.

I didn't mention intensity here because the longer I read this forum the more it becomes clear that we have the knowledge to predict intensity about 3 times better than my Magic 8 Ball.
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#32 Postby iluvseashore » Mon Oct 18, 2004 7:20 pm

I would have to say Charley, mostly because it was personal. When I evacuated from Clearwater and took that last look at my house I expected to come home to nothing.
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