Post your numbers for the 2003 hurricane season here

[cycloneye]

Debbie so far is the only member that forecasts an average season in terms of named systems but well below average in hurricanes.

Keep the forecasts comming here to see at the end who has the right one.

[Steve H.]

Deb in FL, your numbers actually look pretty good, although the 3 hurricanes and all intense you might want to re-think, since the odds are against that. I would up the number of hurricanes to 6 as a minimum, but if your gut says 3/3 go for it!. I'm personally holding out 'til Sunday, since I am working mega OT on a proposal right now, and haven't had a chance to think about it lately. Have a feeling tht us'ums on the Florida east coast are gonna feel some wind this year, even if its just a glancing blow. That's what the gut says. Cheers!!

[deb_in_nc]

If we do, I'll have plenty of food,water and batteries
if you saw what was in my kit for Irene. I didn't think we'd EVER use it all up.

Debbie

[GulfBreezer]

Here is mine.............15/8/4
Ok, what do I win?? J/K.....................15:04:47:40 till then

[isobar]

13/8/4 for me, cyc.

[cycloneye]

Update of the list of forecasts numbers:

Cycloneye=14/8/3
OtherHD=12/7/2
Rainband=12/6/4
wx247=15/6/3
chad=15/9/3
Pojo=14/7/3
King of weather=14/7/3
Stormsfury=13/9/3
Vbhoutex=15/8/4
mf dolphin=14/8/4
ticka=13/9/3
Amanzi=13/8/3
Coldfront77=14/8/4
jabber=15/9/4
the rock1811=13/7/2
deb-in-fi=11/3/3
Gulfbreezer=15/8/4
isobar=13/8/4

Keep bringing in those forecasts to see at the end who were the most close to what in reallty happened.Many of the members so far that are at the list are not experts so dont be shy and throw your hat in here even if you dont know too much about the tropics and dont be surprised if we give a prize.

[rainydaze]

Update of the list of forecasts numbers:

Cycloneye=14/8/3
OtherHD=12/7/2
Rainband=12/6/4
wx247=15/6/3
chad=15/9/3
Pojo=14/7/3
King of weather=14/7/3
Stormsfury=13/9/3
Vbhoutex=15/8/4
mf dolphin=14/8/4
ticka=13/9/3
Amanzi=13/8/3
Coldfront77=14/8/4
jabber=15/9/4
the rock1811=13/7/2
deb-in-fi=11/3/3
Gulfbreezer=15/8/4
isobar=13/8/4
Rainydaze1= 14/5/4
JetMaxx=12/6/2
GalvestonDuck=15/9/6
JCT777=10/6/3

Keep bringing in those forecasts to see at the end who were the most close to what in reallty happened.Many of the members so far that are at the list are not experts so dont be shy and throw your hat in here even if you dont know too much about the tropics and dont be surprised if we give a prize.

[JetMaxx]

My gut says average....but with the addition of subtropical storms getting names/ numbers -- I'll go higher..

I'll take a stab and say:

12 names storms
6 hurricanes
2 major hurricanes = 12/6/2

[GalvestonDuck]

15 Named storms
9 'Canes
6 Major

[JCT777]

Here is a more conservative outlook: 10/6/3

[The_Cycloman_PR]

Well...Based on the current NOAA update and latest observations I had to raise my numbers from my original 13, 7, 3 to my updated numbers of 15 named Storms 9 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes. Increased risk of low latitude systems. This appear to be a very active and dangerous season, we must be alert. :o

Cycloman.

[cycloneye]

Here is the updated list of forecasts from the members rookies or not so rookie:

Cycloneye=14/8/3
OtherHD=12/7/2
Rainband=12/6/4
wx247=15/6/3
chad=15/9/3
pojo=14/7/3
King of weather=14/7/3
Stormsfury=13/9/3
vbhoutex=15/8/5
mf dolphin=14/8/4
ticka=13/9/3
Amanzi=13/8/3
Coldfront77=14/8/4
Jabber=15/9/4
therock1811=13/7/2
deb in fI=11/3/3
Gulfbreezer=15/8/4
isobar=13/8/4
Raindaze1=14/5/4
Jetmaxx=12/6/2
GalvestonDuck=15/9/6
JCT777=10/6/3
Cycloman PR=15/9/4
Southerngale=16/9/4
Steve=14/8/4

Throw your hat in here with your numbers even if you are not an expert.

[southerngale]

16/9/4

This is based on careful, thoughtful, and very deliberate guessing. This meteorological prognostication is founded on my new scientific formula:

What nobody else predicted + How much tropical action I'd like to see in '03 = Voila! My Forecast!


Oh, by the way, did I mention to any of you that 2 months ago I predicted a drought was coming soon for my area?

[chadtm80]

Just a few days left... Everyone get there predictions in..

[Steve]

Here's my shot in the dark 2003 hurricane forecast. Take it for what it's worth - absolutely nothing. But since everyone wants to have their say, I'm going to have mine. Don't beat me up too bad over it when it's all wrong in the end. It's long, so sorry about that.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I'm going with 14/8/4. All data I've perused indicates that this will be a memorable season. I don't have a clue if these numbers will pan out, but I went into last year with a 13/8/3 prediction. I was better on my landfalls.

So far we know that the mean trof position is likely to be even further west than last year's. It is liable to fluctuate between the Western Lakes and the Northern Rockies. Last year's avenue through the US was between 88-92W. This year it's more wide open. Landfalls could occur between 80-97W depending on relative conditions at the time the storms are in the area. I had a guru tell me that he believes the the MJO will be in the area in August. That could mean an earlier start to the meat of the season than we've seen in a couple of years. I'm predicting a minimum of 5 named storms in some part of the Gulf of Mexico.

We could see as many as 6 or 7 landfalls this year. I'll go out on a limb and predict 1 hit between the Upper Mexican Coast and Corpus; 1 landfall between Corpus and New Iberia/Vermillion Bay, 2 landfalls between New Iberia and Panama City Beach, 1 landfall between Key West and PCB, and a landfall in SE Florida which could be a dual landfall (ala Betsy, Andrew, et al). The Outer Banks is always a potential target, so that goes without saying. And there's always the shot that if the Bermuda Ridge is placed just right, there could be a hit between coastal Virginia and Maine.

In the peak part of the season, some indications are that the NAO may be neutral to slightly positive this year. If my failing memory is right, we had a negative NAO for the heart of the season last year. Water profiles in the Gulf and off the east coast are somewhat similar to last year. In some places, the water is already running warmer, the exception being right along the shoreline in the NE. In contrast to last season, there is no serious drought in the mid-Atlantic. One lesson from last year was that whenever the water is warm off the NE Coast and there are drought conditions in the mid-Atlantic, they will be broken by the hurricane season.

What could be interesting this year, and I'll be waiting for Kevin, Rob and TWW's forecast due out Sunday is whether or not the MJO is a factor in September and early October. If my source is right and its peak effect is earlier in the season, we'll have to see when it comes back around again in relation to whatever the Fall brings. It's almost like 2003 could peak differently than what we saw in 2002 and 2001.

As noted in other posts, the NOAA predicts storm tracks to be further south this year, so there is a good chance that we might see more CV storms or those originating in the Atlantic. This could mean landfalls of stronger storms than the close-in stuff we saw last year that consisted in all but 1 case of tropical storms. This is unknown, but my money is with storms being stronger this year than what we saw last year.

I'm not honing in on a specific target zone, because the entire Gulf and SE coast looks to be ripe for mother nature's pickins this year. (I had Bay St. Louis-Pensacola last year). If the Bermuda Ridge is as strong of an influence as what I'm thinking (and I was dead on that last year) there will be an aiming mechanism.

Joe B ranks 1995 as one of the analog years with similar water termperature in the Pacific and precipitation patterns across the states. Some differences include a negative NAO and warmer water further east in the Atlantic. FYI, here are the tracks for the 1995 Hurricane Season. One will note the fair number of gulf hits (Dean, Erin, Opal) but the otherwise incredible amount of fish spinners that year. There were 18 named storms.

Now I'm not thinking we're giong to have 18 named storms in 2003, but if for some insane reason we did, there would be a tremendous landfall potential.

http://www.cotf.edu/ete/modules/elnino/crfig13.html

Steve

[cycloneye]

Steve that was a great and complete anaylisis that you did there and now let's wait and see what kind of season the 2003 one will be but hopefully it wont be like the 1995 season. :o

[cycloneye]

Update of the forecasts numbers:

Cycloneye=14/8/3
OtherHD=12/7/2
Rainband=12/6/4
wx247=15/6/3
chad-15/9/3
pojo=14/7/3
King of weather=14/7/3
Stormsfury=13/9/3
vbhoutex=15/8/5
mf dolphin=14/8/4
ticka=13/9/3
Amanzi=13/8/3
Coldfront77=14/8/4
Jabber=15/9/4
therock1811=13/7/2
deb in fI=11/3/3
Gulfbreezer=15/8/4
isobar=13/8/4
raindaze1=14/5/4
JetMaxx=12/6/2
GalvestonDuck=15/9/6
JCT777=10/6/3
The Cycloman PR=15/9/4
southerngale=16/9/4
Steve=14/8/4
Steve H=13/8/3
OuterBanker=15/8/3
photopete=13/8/3

We are now days away from hurricane season so throw your hat here with your forecasts numbers and you dont have to be an expert to participate and at the end of he season we will see who was the member that was the most close to what in reallity happened.

[chadtm80]

Great job steve.. Thanks

[Steve H.]

I'm going with an above average season at 13/8/3. This is actually conservative as conditions COULD be ripe enough to give a season significantly above average, but that is to be seen. SSTs are well above the average in the eastern and northern GOM, the Western Atlantic, but slightly below in the central and eastern atlantic, but not unusually cool so this shouldn't serve as an inhibiting factor. The big factor will be the Upper Level winds. With El Nino fading or gone, this should prevent the occurence of rising warm air from the Pacific to enhance the ST jet from disturbing convective development in the Atlantic. Pockets of anomalously warm water should serve as incubaters for lower pressures in the Caribbean, but will upper level conditions support development? Probably later in the season September/October, though one early storm out of the western Caribbean is certainly a possibility (late June/early July). The central/eastern atlantic should provide for 3 - 4 storms this year. Different from past years, I believe the ITCZ will settle further north, and not be suppressed by the overwhelming high pressure of past year. The dominant high pressure of past years had created much subsidence (sinking dry air) and hence no cyclone development. This year has already shown a much moister atlantic and an increasingly (albeit slow) active ITCZ. That being said, things can change, and so can the pattern. But this year should see waves developing east of 50W from August through September. Another concern is the western Atlantic. Sea Surface Temperatures in the Sargasso sea are 1 - 2 degrees above normal, right down through the Bahamas, Cuba, and off towards Puerto Rico. Some SSTAs are also off the Eastern side of South America, which is something I'm not used to seeing. Bottom line here is we could see much of this season's development in the Caribbean and the SW Atlantic, similar to where Bertha formed in '96 in July. Don't see the GOM as the breeding ground for many storms this year, but the GOM will entertain a few that enter it from the atlantic and Caribbean, and they could be big, low latittude storms. Again, in the tropics timing is everything. The UL winds, the positioning of high pressure in the Atlantic, the hand-off of high pressure (Azores to Bermuda) of developed systems, and the position and strength of troughs crossing the CONUS will be crucial to landfalling or low latittude storms. Trying to predict the tropics is like gambling...there's no such thing as a sure thing. But there are many factors this year that point to a busy season. Will it play out that way??? We'll see. It could be busier than I predict :o ...that's what my gut is saying...but I'm going to stay convervative for now. Cheers!!

[OuterBanker]

I have never posted predictions before, so here goes. 15/8/3. I think that we will have 13 tropical storms with two sub tropical systems not making the transition to tropical. I am usually conservative (below predictions) but this year I feel it will be different because there are so many positive factors for development. There a few signs that exist now that concern me. The eastern Atlantic is a bit cool which could inhibit far eastern development, a potentially bad sign for land falling hurricanes. When tropical systems become hurricanes prior to 60 w the mid Atlantic trough usually carries them harmlessly out to sea lessening the threat to the US mainland. Cooler eastern Atlantic SST's mean later development for Cape Verde systems which in turn increases the threat to the US. By contrast, the SST's in the western Atlantic and Gulf are warmer than average which can lead to more development closer to the US coast. The ever present east coast trough (east coast savior) has migrated more west than last year, etc., etc. What I guess I'm really saying is that I am more concerned about the number of land falls in the US this year than the number of hurricanes. Who knows, maybe we will escape again this year, it sure has been nice (but boring) going three years here on the OBX without a real scare. Maybe we will reach four years (I've discovered that boring is more profitable).