Will Cat. 5 Hit The US This Year?

[Scorpion]

With warm water and great conditions, it shouldn't be that hard to get a Cat 5. I expect at least 1 Cat 5 this year.

[HurricaneBill]

With warm water and great conditions, it shouldn't be that hard to get a Cat 5. I expect at least 1 Cat 5 this year.

Um, please keep in mind that Category 5 hurricanes are rare events. They don't happen every year. Usually there are only 3 Category 5 hurricanes per decade.

Atlantic Category 5 hurricanes:

1950 Hurricane Dog
1951 Hurricane Easy
1955 Hurricane Janet
1958 Hurricane Cleo
1960 Hurricane Donna
1960 Hurricane Ethel
1961 Hurricane Carla
1961 Hurricane Hattie
1967 Hurricane Beulah
1969 Hurricane Camille
1971 Hurricane Edith
1977 Hurricane Anita
1979 Hurricane David
1980 Hurricane Allen
1988 Hurricane Gilbert
1989 Hurricane Hugo
1992 Hurricane Andrew
1998 Hurricane Mitch
2003 Hurricane Isabel
2004 Hurricane Ivan

That's 20 Category 5 hurricanes in a 55 year period.

Or 1 Category 5 hurricane every 2.75 years.

Just because we had two consecutive seasons with Category 5 hurricanes, doesn't mean they'll happen every year now.

[Scorpion]

Look at 1958-61. It's not unlikely that a Cat 5 will form next year. Especially with an active period like we're in now and global warming.

[Stratosphere747]

Mitch never made landfall as a Category 5. Believe it or not, Mitch was a Category 1 at landfall on Honduras. However, Mitch had been close enough offshore to bring Category 3 conditions to the Honduras coast.

Also, in regards to typhoons, the last typhoon to make a Category 5 landfall was Super Typhoon Bilis in 2000. Bilis was a Category 5 at landfall on Taiwan.

Incredibly, despite a record 10 super typhoons reaching Category 5 status in 1997, none of them made landfall as a Category 5.

Ironically, the deadliest typhoon of 1997 was only a weak Category 1 typhoon, Typhoon Linda.

The only EPAC system known to make a Category 5 landfall was a hurricane in 1959 which hit Mexico as a Category 5. The second strongest storm is the rarely talked about Hurricane Madeline in 1976. The third strongest was Hurricane Kenna in 2002.

Other destructive Category 4 hurricanes to hit Mexico were Hurricane Liza (1976) and Hurricane Pauline (1997).

Notice how all these intense storms seem to hit Mexico during El Nino years.

Hurricane Linda (Strongest cane ever recorded in EPac) brushed the Socorro island in 97. Not sure if that qualifies, but will never see many stronger than her...

[HurricaneBill]

Look at 1958-61. It's not unlikely that a Cat 5 will form next year. Especially with an active period like we're in now and global warming.

Conditions have to be absolutely right for a Category 5 hurricane to form.

Just because we're in an active period doesn't mean more will occur. The 1970s and 1980s still managed 3 Category 5 hurricanes each.

Plus, several seasons with a Category 5 were below average seasons. (1960, 1967, 1977, 1979, 1992)

[george_r_1961]

The best answer I can give is a definite "maybe". We are seeing stronger storms making landfall; the Bermuda High could also be in position to steer storms toward the US instead of letting them recurve out to sea. Combine this with above normal SST's and you have a recipe for disaster. People in the southeast US and along the gulf coast should make their 2005 hurricane plan now instead of waiting for the red and black flags to be hoisted. For the aforementioned reasons I do feel that Florida is at high risk again this year with a moderate risk for the Mid Atlantic including the NC Outer Banks and the DelMarva.