Powerful Extratropical Cyclone Develops

[Andrew92]

Only Accu-weather can make a statement like that. Sometimes I wonder about Accu-weather.

You mean Inaccu-weather.

[george_r_1961]

This time they may be right; it might have been a subtropical storm as it passed off Ocracoke and Hatteras. For a period of time there was convection on all sides of the center even though it was far removed from the LLC. Incidentally the ferry depot on Ocracoke reported a wind gust of 115mph on Friday.

[HURAKAN]

This time they may be right; it might have been a subtropical storm as it passed off Ocracoke and Hatteras. For a period of time there was convection on all sides of the center even though it was far removed from the LLC. Incidentally the ferry depot on Ocracoke reported a wind gust of 115mph on Friday.

You may be right, but sometimes when a system is borderline between extratropical and subtropical is very hard to distinguish between one characteristic and the other. Is easier to distinguish a system as subtropical when it stays for a longer period of time with its subtropical characteristics like Nicole last year. If it was subtropical for a few hours, that's not long enough to give the NHC even a change to look at it and advise on it. Better luck for the next extratropical low that wants to become more tropical inside!

[x-y-no]

Looks like it's making a little loop southeast of the Cape this morning.

[wxman57]

Quite impressive this morning. SSTs just southeast of the Cape are in the low to mid 50s, though. Looks like it'll drift southeast today then out to sea.

[rainstorm]

looks rather tropical

[chadtm80]

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Remember the enviroment it forms in tells what it is. If the core is warmer then the outside. Then it is something interesting to watch. I still have to look at more data.

[Aslkahuna]

Here's a little bit about the current environment of the system-H5 heights are around 553 dam, H5 temperatures of -18C, CAA at 850mb with temperatures near and slightly above 0C into the backside of the system and strong jet stream support-this was 1 hour and 10 minutes before the above satellite imagery-clearly a baroclinic system. I've been following this the past three days and have noted that the system has shown strong baroclinicity throughout that period with strong dryslotting and CAA into the backside-in fact, the H5 temperatures were COLDER in the system yesterday than today (down to -22C). To those of us who watch Pacific systems it's not uncommon to see convection wrap into the center of a deep low like this because of the instability but noone is about to try to characterize those systems as subtropical-not with -35C H5 temperatures. As for Inaccuweather-obviously They have no idea of what a tropical cyclone is if they called this system one. When I was forecasting in VA years ago, I saw a couple of systems like this one in the Winter and no one tried to call those subtropical. There was a very strong negative tilt trough associated with this system and although tropical air was involved, the system near as I could tell never developed a warm core.

Steve

[MGC]

It is preposterous to even suggest this system has any tropical characteristics considering its location and it is only early May. If it were 500 miles further south, perhaps......MGC

[senorpepr]

Here's a little bit about the current environment of the system-H5 heights are around 553 dam, H5 temperatures of -18C, CAA at 850mb with temperatures near and slightly above 0C into the backside of the system and strong jet stream support-this was 1 hour and 10 minutes before the above satellite imagery-clearly a baroclinic system. I've been following this the past three days and have noted that the system has shown strong baroclinicity throughout that period with strong dryslotting and CAA into the backside-in fact, the H5 temperatures were COLDER in the system yesterday than today (down to -22C). To those of us who watch Pacific systems it's not uncommon to see convection wrap into the center of a deep low like this because of the instability but noone is about to try to characterize those systems as subtropical-not with -35C H5 temperatures. As for Inaccuweather-obviously They have no idea of what a tropical cyclone is if they called this system one. When I was forecasting in VA years ago, I saw a couple of systems like this one in the Winter and no one tried to call those subtropical. There was a very strong negative tilt trough associated with this system and although tropical air was involved, the system near as I could tell never developed a warm core.

Steve

Steve makes an outstanding point, this system is far from being tropical or even subtropical. Remember, there's more to "the game" than just looking at a satellite image. Look at the upper-air data, as Steve has done, and you can see exactly why many has been saying this is purely a baroclinic system. There's way too much of a cold-core on this puppy and the strong temperature advection is just a great reason why this system is not making a transition into a tropical feature.

It's early May... remember, we shouldn't get so jumpy. Having a great situational awareness is one thing, but remember that the first system, on average, forms roughly 43 days from now...

[george_r_1961]

Ok not trying to compete with the big brains here but heres my reasoning. At one point it had healthy convection on the western side of the circulation; I dont recall seeing that in a cold core system before. the NC Outer Banks experienced heavy squalls as did the Delmarva. There was also a nice blob of convection near the LLC. The latent heat released as a result of this convection could have given this system a warm core although it was still baroclinically driven. Im sure this low would have fizzled quickly if not for the barocliinic support it had. I think it was the combination of barolclinic support and some warm core features that made this storm explode the way it did. A hybrid maybe? Im not questioning the judgement of the excellent s2k forecasters, just had to throw my 2 cents in

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Wow george_r_1961 you think about what I think. In I will always quastion because thats what I do.