What Major U.S. City Will Get Hit By A Monster Cane?

[StormChasr]

I would say it is far more likely that NEITHER get hit. It is only a 10% chance of hurricane force winds in Miami this year, and only a 6 % chance of them in New Orleans....so either way, it is very low percentage.

[cyclonaut]

I would say it is far more likely that NEITHER get hit. It is only a 10% chance of hurricane force winds in Miami this year, and only a 6 % chance of them in New Orleans....so either way, it is very low percentage.

My gosh you are the most skeptical "StormChasr" east of the Mississppi.

I don't know what storm you are planning to chase because you make it seem like they are going exstinct.

Seriously though in the past Miami & New Orleans has seen their share.Especially Miami which has been hit hard directly from many infamous hurricanes.So why would it seem so far fetched that a bigtime hurricane could hit these cities.

BTW...When I said which city will get hit by a big one "sooner rather than later", it wasnt suppose to mean just this season.It means this season through the next 2-3 seasons.

[jdray]

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Landsea/history/

Going from that research, Ill go ahead and say Jacksonville gets the next major blow.

It has been way too long and Jax has been way too lucky. Dora slowed from a 3 to a 2 right before landfall. (and was a 4 before that)

Jeanne and Frances both bucked the trend and turned more westerly than northerly. Had they been slightly more NW in their tracking, Jax would have been hit harder than the 2-3 days of winds/rain we had.


Floyd was a very very close scare here.
David in 1979 skimmed the coast as well.

The next Major Metro area north of Miami/Ft Lauderdale (on the coast) is Jax. It would take a fast moving & compact storm like Andrew or Charley to affect Orlando with anything more than Cat 2 winds.

We get a lot of brushes up here. While the headlines and papers focus on South and Central FLorida, we get backdoored and brushed quite often.

[HollynLA]

Whichever city it may be will be a devestating blow. Many large coastal cities haven't seen a real hurricane hit head on in quite some time. I dread the day when this happens, it's not going to be a pretty site. I know mets have been claiming devestation for New Orleans for a long time but I hope I never see the day. Just yesterday I was glancing around (in Dulac, LA) and realizing that the land is washing away faster than we can save it, all it will take is a hurricane to speed up the process and everyone will be gone since it will be the gulf coast instead of Dulac.

[SootyTern]

I voted Miami (not w***casting here) if the time frame is indefinite- figure down here has the best chance of all the cities listed of a Cat 4 or 5 hit, especially if one considered the 'Miami' region to also include Ft Lauderdale and WPB. I think it likely Nawlins would be hit before Miami, but by a 2 or 3. If the timeframe is just the 2005 season, then realistically probably none of these cities will be hit directly.

Also, this whole feeling of being 'overdue' is powerful but I don't think it holds any metereological significance. I live where we're way 'underdue' (Andrew came through here not that long ago) and it's easy to think 'yeah they'll go somewhere else' but there's no reason why; each year is meterologically (sp?) independent of others, as far as I can tell.

Crikey, I wasn't going to sign on until at least June 1st. I guess I have a problem after all. We need Tracker's Anonymous!

[jdray]

The most important thing to remember about the US getting hit by a cane is that we only have a few hundred years of written reports to go by for trends.

NE Florida and the Savannah area are probably the oldest records that we can consider accurate enough with a time/date about activity.


We are looking at a microscopic timeslice here with regards to our written records.

[gatorcane]

South Florida is going to get hit this year. but I have said that all along...it's the feeling I get...as some have mentioned metro Palm Beach, Broward, and Dade have been spared for over 50 years. Last year was a warning for S. Florida as two storms hit just a little further north up the coast. This year will be the wake up call I'm afraid....but I wouldn't be surprised if the strike will happen from the South (Caribbean) this year or the GOM. The everglades aren't going to weaken a storm that much!

[Brent]

South Florida is going to get hit this year. but I have said that all along...it's the feeling I get...as some have mentioned metro Palm Beach, Broward, and Dade have been spared for over 50 years. Last year was a warning for S. Florida as two storms hit just a little further north up the coast. This year will be the wake up call I'm afraid....but I wouldn't be surprised if the strike will happen from the South (Caribbean) this year or the GOM. The everglades aren't going to weaken a storm that much!

If you want intensity, you'd rather it hit from the East. Nothing but warm water, and lots of it.

To the south you have Cuba and some land. It would weaken quite a bit.

[cyclonaut]

Not if it pulls a Charley or misses land all together & passes through the Yucatan Channel..Or both.

[cswitwer]

I'm going with Tampa. They had a close call last year, and I think the "Charley effect" could mean that Tampa ends up getting a storm that starts east, moves over the southern part of the state, reorganizes or intensifies in the gult, and moves into the Tampa area. Not a prediction-- just a fear.

I was in Charleston, SC during cane season last year. Knowing that storms could go back out into the water and reorganize was scary. If Charley had gotten bigger or stronger, we had no team to leave. It was over water overnight.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Climatologically New York is getting due for a hit, and thus should also be included in the list of possible strikes. A major hurricane making landfall east of the great City would no doubt cause the second worst hurricane related disaster (a potential hit near New Orleans causing the worst) in US history (both in terms of damage and loss of life).


Hybridstorm_November2001

[skysummit]

I voted New Orleans. Betsy missed, but was pretty darn close. Camille went east. Georges and Ivan both turned at the last minute. The luck is about to run out on the Big Easy.

[cyclonaut]

Climatologically New York is getting due for a hit, and thus should also be included in the list of possible strikes. A major hurricane making landfall west of the great City would no doubt cause the second worst hurricane related disaster (a potential hit near New Orleans causing the worst) in US history (both in terms of damage and loss of life).


Hybridstorm_November2001

New York???

Has there ever been a major hurricane up there?

[JTD]

StormChasr, while I know that patterns can change on a dime, I do tend to agree with what you said about shear.

Also of note is that it is extraordinarily dry right now in Western Africa so SAL is a major factor, indeed.

Until I see SAL and shear relax, I think I have to throw my lot in with you.

[JTD]

Climatologically New York is getting due for a hit, and thus should also be included in the list of possible strikes. A major hurricane making landfall west of the great City would no doubt cause the second worst hurricane related disaster (a potential hit near New Orleans causing the worst) in US history (both in terms of damage and loss of life).


Hybridstorm_November2001

It's not possible for NY to have a cat 4 or 5 climatologically.

Even a cat 3 would be a stretch. Now a kind of Hurricane Juan for New York, that's possible.

[JTD]

Climatologically New York is getting due for a hit, and thus should also be included in the list of possible strikes. A major hurricane making landfall west of the great City would no doubt cause the second worst hurricane related disaster (a potential hit near New Orleans causing the worst) in US history (both in terms of damage and loss of life).


Hybridstorm_November2001

New York???

Has there ever been a major hurricane up there?

The Long Island Express.

[Anonymous]

In August 1893, a Category 1 hurricane made a direct hit on New York City, NY with winds of 80-90 mph, and today, that hurricane would likely cause extensive damage, especially given the fact that some of the Cat 1 impacts would be greater since it hadd been a Cat 2, and a Cat 3 just offshore.



I think a Cat 1 in Florida or Texas, minimal damage. Sign damage, some roof damage, some tree and bush damage, power lines.

However, a Cat 1 directly in New York City, extensive damage. Windows on tall buildings blown out, causing glass to fall on streets below. Powerlines down, bush and tree damage, flooding potential even into tunnels.

[TexasStooge]

My guess would be Houston, TX.

[cajungal]

Everyone seems to keep thinking New Orleans is hurricane proof. Just because the storms usually miss them. Lots of close calls. New Orleans used to get hit a lot in the early days. Just been very lucky. 40 years will be the anniversary of Betsy on Sept 11th. Would it be weird if a cane hit New Orleans on the 40th anniversary of Betsy? I better shut up. Don't want to jinx anybody. LOL. I have this feeling that Louisiana especially the Houma-New Orleans area will get one soon enough.

[MGC]

There you go Cajungal. New Orleans is doomed now....MGC