1030PM TWO--- More concentrated....Pressures falling

[feederband]

I'm impressed with all the moisture from the west Caribbean to the central Atlantic. Something has got to pop.

Agree , something will form in that mess....

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The warmer water the lower the pressure=Means tropical lows. I'm ready to track again.

[Anonymous]

The warmer the lower the pressure=Means tropical lows. I'm ready to track again.

as my avatar says.... BRING IT ON!!!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

There needs to be some more models showing this develop. But I agree bring it on!!!

[Anonymous]

There needs to be some more models showing this develop. But I agree bring it on!!!

Im not so sure but I think that maybe because pressures are already so low in the western carib., they are having a problem picking out a definite system. But the NHC says conditions are favorable so I'll go with that and my 60% chance remains.... BRING IT ON

[CentralFlGal]

Imagine if this year would rival 1995:



There'd be an average of 3-4 hours of sleep each day per Storm2k member

[Hurricaneman]

I think that mess will become something in the next 3 days

[corpusbreeze]

There needs to be some more models showing this develop. But I agree bring it on!!!

Im not so sure but I think that maybe because pressures are already so low in the western carib., they are having a problem picking out a definite system. But the NHC says conditions are favorable so I'll go with that and my 60% chance remains.... BRING IT ON

Yea if the NHC says there is a chance for development, you can bet there is . They don't throw that phase around too much.

[Ola]

Actually, winds are not caused by low pressure itself. It is the presure diference between the storm and its sorrowndings that create the winds that flow from high to low pressure. Having a 1001 Hurricane is not so hard if you have really high pressure in the ocean around it. In the Atlantic storms have higher pressures than any other tropical region of the world because the Atlantic has normally higher pressure anyways, and Atlantic storms have as strong winds as other regions with much higher pressures.

[Swimdude]

A few comments:

1. Amazing a cat. 1 would have a minimum pressure of only 1000 mb. Goodness that's high.

2. Secondly, if this system were to develop, we'd be ahead of the 1995 season, as its second storm didn't form until July. Muah hahaha, take that 95'.

3. Definately seeing something come from this blob in the Caribbean.

[Anonymous]

Imagine if this year would rival 1995:

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/track_maps/1995.jpg

There'd be an average of 3-4 hours of sleep each day per Storm2k member

My personal opinion is this year may put 1995 to sleep as the most active year in our lifetimes. Dr Gray says 15 named storms and he has never gone so high in his predictions. Also, He almost always misses and predicts too low as I think he is consevative and he did not forsee the activity we had in 1995---I think he predicted 12-14 NS then and we had 19. My prediction is 16NS this year and I am also somewhat consevative... Could we see Tammy, Vince Wilma?? Beyond that is the phonetic alphabet but water temps are at record levels so this may be

[CentralFlGal]

[Scorpion]

I think Danny in 2003 had a pressure of 1004 mb as a Cat 1. The pressures are very low in the Caribbean so I wouldnt be surprised to see TD's there in the upper 990's and TS's in the 980's.

[Anonymous]

I think Danny in 2003 had a pressure of 1004 mb as a Cat 1. The pressures are very low in the Caribbean so I wouldnt be surprised to see TD's there in the upper 990's and TS's in the 980's.

I agree, I think pressure of any system forming in the w carib will have to be very low to form even a td considerring the low pressures around it

[Derek Ortt]

typically, storms that form in the WCARIB has pressures closer to WPAC systems, until they move into the NW Carib, out of the monsoon trough.

I have seen many TD's with pressures ranging from 998-1003mb in the SW Carib, where this developing feature currently is located

[tailgater]

I checked the same bouy and the pressures had actually started to rise slightly (tendency was a .05 in rise as of 2 hours ago... which leads me to believe that the earlier falls were diurnal)

That said, they are VERY low for the area and I would not be surprised to see another depression within the next 24-48 hours

I was just noticing the same thing and the easterly wind over the last 24 hrs. says nothing happening just yet but T-storms refiring over the same general area(78-73w) (13-16n) as shown on IR loop has me thinking it's possible.
Derek do you know what the Upper Low to the north of this system is supposed to do, it seems to tracking west

[Derek Ortt]

I'd have to look at some model results to know for sure.

I have been busy this evening reading literature for some revisions to the paper I am working on and hope to have submitted to the AMS within the next couple of weeks or so

[tailgater]

I'd have to look at some model results to know for sure.

I have been busy this evening reading literature for some revisions to the paper I am working on and hope to have submitted to the AMS within the next couple of weeks or so

Cool and good luck
Care to give any hints as to what your papers subject