0Z Track Models...a Little Interesting

[MWatkins]

Well...sure...if that scenario unfolds.

However...interestingly enough the 00Z GFS has trended well west of the 18Z solution. Why? Well let's start looking at 48 hours (2 days) from now.

Here's the 00Z GFS:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_048m.gif

Compare to the 18Z:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_054m.gif

About 180 miles west and a bit south. The concern here...in the trend... is the system starts south and stays south in the next day or so. The old guidance had the system coming up between Cuba and Hispanola...the newest guidance is well south and west over Cuba.

Also...the 0Z NOGAPS leaves a 588DM ridge centered just to the north of Hispanola throughout the next 5 day period. This is the 2nd run in a row that it leaves a ridge down there and my concern is that if something doesn't develop and get handed off right away it will sit and spin over the western Caribbean.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/w ... 2005061400

I am not looking at any one run...but the trend is west. Of course...time will tell if anything actually develops which to me is the biggest question...but I am not biting on a quick recurve out yet.

MW

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Mw how can this system move into a trough? I think it will go up the front side as the trough digs into the western caribbean. So a northeastward movement or at the least a northward. That would also moving with the shear for the best chance for tropical cyclone development.

[MWatkins]

As it look at it more there is about a 5% chance that the system...based on it's current position (it is not already coming north like the 12 and 18Z GFS models suggested) will come between Hispanola and Cuba...it is already south of Eastern Cuba and would have to move NE in the next day to hit the lat/long advertised up there.

Tomorrow is a big day...based on what happens in the next 18 hours I could easily abandon my position on this...but I'm not ready to do that yet.

MW

[dhweather]

Funny, I said the same thing and some actually insisted that the
system will move W on WNW because the lower level easterlies.
Troughs move these things around with relative ease.

[Scott_inVA]

Well...sure...if that scenario unfolds.

However...interestingly enough the 00Z GFS has trended well west of the 18Z solution. Why? Well let's start looking at 48 hours (2 days) from now.

Here's the 00Z GFS:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_048m.gif

Compare to the 18Z:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_054m.gif

About 180 miles west and a bit south. The concern here...in the trend... is the system starts south and stays south in the next day or so. The old guidance had the system coming up between Cuba and Hispanola...the newest guidance is well south and west over Cuba.

Also...the 0Z NOGAPS leaves a 588DM ridge centered just to the north of Hispanola throughout the next 5 day period. This is the 2nd run in a row that it leaves a ridge down there and my concern is that if something doesn't develop and get handed off right away it will sit and spin over the western Caribbean.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/w ... 2005061400

I am not looking at any one run...but the trend is west. Of course...time will tell if anything actually develops which to me is the biggest question...but I am not biting on a quick recurve out yet.

MW

And that is prudent. But it appears s/w's pivoting over the Lakes push a cold front well SE with a 2nd FROPA this weekend will verify.

I discount nothing before it develops but even if a piece breaks off and somehow opens a door SE of Florida, I think troughiness over the eastern CONUS minimizes the threat of any motion < 330°. Not ready too say fish but do feel more confident.

Scott