Morale boosting NHC Discussions

[yzerfan]

Another one from the long-running disco Hurricane Kyle:

ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 58
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT FRI OCT 04 2002

UNDER STRONG NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR...THE LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION WITH
KYLE HAS BEEN GRADUALLY SEPARATING FROM THE CIRCULATION CENTER...AND
IS NOW ABOUT 130 NM AWAY. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND
SAB ARE STILL 35 KT...BUT THE T NUMBERS ARE LOWER...AND I HAVE MY
DOUBTS AS TO WHETHER KYLE IS STILL A TROPICAL STORM. A QUIKSCAT
PASS JUST IN HAS A COUPLE OF SUSPECT 35 KT VECTORS...BUT LOTS AT 30
KT...ENOUGH TO PRESUME THAT THERE ARE 35 KT WINDS BELOW THE
RESOLUTION OF THE SCATTEROMETER...SO KYLE REMAINS A TROPICAL STORM
FOR NOW.

FOR THE LAST TWELVE HOURS KYLE HAS BEEN MAKING STEADY PROGRESS TO
THE NORTHWEST...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS 310/8. THE MID-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW CENTER THAT KYLE HAS BEEN MOVING AROUND IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD AND WEAKEN...LEAVING KYLE EMBEDDED WITHIN
A LARGER ANTICYCLONE CUTOFF FROM THE WESTERLIES. THE GFS AND GFDL
MEANDER KYLE IN MORE OR LESS ITS CURRENT LOCATION FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THE NOGAPS STILL TAKES KYLE OUT TO SEA...JUST BEYOND
OUR THREE DAY FORECAST PERIOD...BUT THIS MODEL IS NOW THE OUTLIER.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A LITTLE LESS OVERALL MOTION THAN THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

THE ENVIRONMENT OF KYLE IS CURRENTLY VERY UNFAVORABLE FOR
REDEVELOPMENT. THE SHEAR IS STRONG...AND THE SURROUNDING AIR IS
RATHER DRY. CONSEQUENTLY I EXPECT KYLE TO DROP BELOW TROPICAL STORM
STRENGTH BEFORE THE SHEAR LESSENS IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. AT THAT TIME
THERE WILL BE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR LIMITED REDEVELOPMENT. NEAR THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...A NON- OR SUB-TROPICAL LOW MOVES INTO
THE AREA FROM THE EAST...AND IS LIKELY TO CREATE MORE HOSTILE
UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS FOR KYLE.

HOW LONG WILL WE BE DEALING WITH KYLE. JUST FOR FUN...I NOTE THAT
THE LATEST LONG-RANGE RUN OF THE GFS HAS KYLE...ITS DECAYED REMNANTS
ACTUALLY...REACHING SOUTH FLORIDA JUST IN TIME FOR THE KICKOFF OF
THE MIAMI/FLORIDA STATE GAME...ONE WEEK FROM TOMORROW.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 05/0300Z 31.4N 71.3W 35 KTS
12HR VT 05/1200Z 32.4N 71.7W 30 KTS
24HR VT 06/0000Z 33.4N 71.7W 35 KTS
36HR VT 06/1200Z 34.5N 71.7W 35 KTS
48HR VT 07/0000Z 35.0N 71.5W 40 KTS
72HR VT 08/0000Z 35.0N 71.5W 40 KTS

[Andrew92]

I'm glad Kyle had no chance of being destructive, because as annoying as he was to track, he gave us some fun discussions!

-Andrew92

[mitchell]

he gave us some fun discussions!
-Andrew92

And fun waves...according to my journal entries, I surfed waves (nearly every day) from Kyle as early as 9-24-02 to as late as 10-13-02 when it finall exited off Hatteraa...thats basically three weeks of surf. THATS a morale booster

[Brent]

Football reference...

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OLGA ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM AST SAT DEC 01 2001

...OLGA LINGERS ON...PUSHES THE HURRICANE SEASON INTO OVERTIME...

AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION OLGA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.7 WEST OR ABOUT
570 MILES...920 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NASSAU IN THE BAHAMAS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH
...13 KM/HR...AND A SLOW WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD MOTION IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. OLGA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN INTO A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE
AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...22.9 N... 68.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM AST.

FORECASTER BEVEN

[yzerfan]

Another from the Kyle archives. They were definitely getting goofy to the point where I wouldn't have been surprised to see someone try to slip a South Park reference in.

ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 70
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT MON OCT 07 2002

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF
KYLE...WHICH HAS LIMITED AND MOSTLY SHAPELESS CONVECTION TO THE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS
ARE UNCHANGED FROM THEIR PREVIOUS VALUES AND SO IS THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY. KYLE HAS NOT MOVED MUCH BUT THERE MAY HAVE BEEN A
SOUTHWARD DRIFT...AND THE ADVISORY MOTION WILL BE 180/2.

KYLE HAS LOTS OF COMPANY IN A COMPLEX NEAR ENVIRONMENT. A
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND IS CURRENTLY
PRODUCING SOME WESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS
TROUGH SHOULD BE OUT OF THE PICTURE IN ANOTHER 24 TO 36 HOURS. THE
LARGE UPPER-LEVEL COLD LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST OF KYLE IS BEGINNING TO
TURN MORE NORTHWARD AND IS STARTING TO LOSE SOME DEFINITION. THIS
SYSTEM IS TRYING TO STEER KYLE SOUTHWARD. A SMALLER MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS OFF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA. THIS LOW IS
CURRENTLY HELPING TO NEGATE THE SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THE FIRST
LOW...BUT SHOULD LOSE OUT IN THE END AS IT DROPS SOUTHWARD AND A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS FROM FLORIDA NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTH OF
KYLE. THE END RESULT IS THAT A BASIC SOUTHWESTWARD STEERING PATTERN
SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE GFS...GFDL...AND
NOGAPS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND IN
GENERAL THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME CONVERGENCE OF THE GUIDANCE IN THIS
DIRECTION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE GFS/GFDL TRACKS
AND IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE MAJOR OUTLIER NOW
IS THE UKMET...WHICH PULLS KYLE SOUTHEASTWARD AROUND THE LARGE UPPER
LOW. SHOULD KYLE GET UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE THAT IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...IT COULD FIND ITSELF IN AN
ENVIRONMENT MORE CONDUCIVE TO DEVELOPMENT.

KYLE IS POISED TO ENTER THE TOP TEN LIST OF LONGEST-LASTING TROPICAL
OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONES. WITH THIS ADVISORY...KYLE HAS BEEN IN
EXISTENCE FOR 17.5 DAYS...PUTTING IT AT NUMBER 11. THE CURRENT TOP
TEN IS GIVEN BELOW...THANKS TO ERIC BLAKE. PERHAPS THE MERE
COMPILATION OF THIS LIST WILL MAKE KYLE GO AWAY...
RANK #DAYS NAME/YEAR
----------------------
1 27.25 GINGER 1971
2 24.75 INGA 1969
3 20.75 CARRIE 1957
STORM 9 OF 1893
5 20.25 INEZ 1966
6 19.75 ALBERTO 2000
7 19.50 STORM 4 OF 1926
8 18.50 STORM 6 OF 1893
9 18.00 STORM 2 OF 1930
10 17.75 STORM 2 OF 1899
11 17.50 KYLE 2002
BEULAH 1967
STORM 3 OF 1906

FORECASTER FRANKLIN/BLAKE

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 08/0300Z 32.3N 71.0W 35 KTS
12HR VT 08/1200Z 31.9N 71.1W 40 KTS
24HR VT 09/0000Z 31.0N 71.2W 40 KTS
36HR VT 09/1200Z 30.0N 71.5W 45 KTS
48HR VT 10/0000Z 29.0N 72.0W 45 KTS
72HR VT 11/0000Z 28.0N 74.0W 50 KTS

[Hyperstorm]

Bringing back this topic to add additional discussions...


ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM EST FRI JAN 06 2006

SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS CONTINUED TO DECREASE AND IS NOW LIMITED TO JUST
A FEW SKINNY BANDS OF SHALLOW CONVECTION WELL TO THE EAST OF THE
CENTER. AS SUCH... ZETA NO LONGER MEETS THE CRITERIA OF A TROPICAL
CYCLONE... WHICH MEANS THAT BOTH IT AND THE 2005 ATLANTIC HURRICANE
SEASON HAVE ENDED.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/6. ZETA HAS MADE A JOG BACK TO
THE NORTHWEST... BUT THE AVERAGE MOTION OVER THE PAST 18 HOURS HAS
BEEN WEST-NORTHWESTERLY AT ABOUT 06 KT. THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF
ZETA IS FORECAST TO MOVE IN A WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWESTWARD
DIRECTION FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS... AND TURN NORTHWARD AFTERWARDS
AS THE REMNANT LOW COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASING
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE BAHAMAS. BY 72 HOURS... THE SKELETAL
REMAINS OF ZETA ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OR BE ABSORBED BY THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM.

I SUPPOSE IT IS ONLY FITTING THAT THE RECORD-BREAKING 2005 ATLANTIC
HURRICANE SEASON ENDS WITH A RECORD BREAKING STORM. TODAY... ZETA
SURPASSED 1954 ALICE #2 AS THE LONGEST-LIVED TROPICAL CYCLONE TO
FORM IN DECEMBER AND CROSS OVER INTO THE NEXT YEAR. ZETA WAS ALSO
THE LONGEST-LIVED JANUARY TROPICAL CYCLONE. IN ADDITION...ZETA
RESULTED IN THE 2005 SEASON HAVING THE LARGEST ACCUMULATED CYCLONE
ENERGY...OR ACE... SURPASSING THE 1950 SEASON. SO... UNTIL THE 2006
SEASON BEGINS... UNLESS ZETA SOMEHOW MAKES AN UNLIKELY MIRACLE
COMEBACK... THIS IS THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER SIGNING OFF FOR
2005... FINALLY.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 06/2100Z 23.4N 50.3W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
12HR VT 07/0600Z 24.0N 52.4W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 07/1800Z 25.4N 54.8W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 08/0600Z 27.8N 56.8W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 08/1800Z 30.2N 57.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
NNNN

[whereverwx]

What one had that "extracurricular" thing in it? I forgot it, what was it again?

[MiamiensisWx]

This one's a classic...

ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM EST SAT DEC 03 2005

EPSILON HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN AGAINST ALL ODDS. THE CLOUD
PATTERN IS REMARKABLY WELL-ORGANIZED FOR A HURRICANE AT HIGH
LATITUDE IN DECEMBER...EMBEDDED IN A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY
WIND ENVIRONMENT AND MOVING OVER 21-22 DEGREE CELSIUS WATER.
SATELLITE PRESENTATION IS THE BEST SO FAR AND IN FACT...DATA-T
NUMBERS FROM ALL AGENCIES HAVE INCREASED TO 4.5 ON THE DVORAK
SCALE...SUPPORTING 77 KNOTS. HOWEVER...BECAUSE THE CYCLONE IS
MOVING OVER COOL WATER...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ONLY
INCREASED TO 70 KNOTS. EPSILON CAN NOT MAINTAIN THE CURRENT
INTENSITY MUCH LONGER SINCE THE ENVIRONMENT IS BECOMING
INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE. WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW A LARGE MASS OF
DRY AIR AND STRONG WESTERLY WINDS NEARING THE HURRICANE. A GRADUAL
WEAKENING IS INDICATED AND ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES
TO SHOW EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN A DAY OR TWO...MOST LIKELY A
GRADUAL SPIN DOWN OVER COLD WATERS WILL OCCUR.

THE HURRICANE IS MOVING EASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS...IT APPEARS THAT
EPSILON IS RUNNING AWAY FROM THE APPROACHING HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT.
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE
UK MODEL HAS NOW JOINED THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE AND UNANIMOUSLY...
ALL MODELS TURN EPSILON TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST...AFTER A SMALL PERIOD
OF SLOW MOTION BETWEEN A BLOCKING HIGH TO THE NORTH AND DEVELOPING
LOW TO THE SOUTH. THIS MAKES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST A LITTLE MORE
CONFIDENT IN TURNING THE CYCLONE SOUTHWESTWARD. HOWEVER...BY THEN
THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE AND EPSILON
MOST LIKELY BE JUST A REMNANT LOW.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 03/2100Z 34.5N 43.1W 70 KT
12HR VT 04/0600Z 34.5N 41.2W 60 KT
24HR VT 04/1800Z 34.5N 38.5W 50 KT
36HR VT 05/0600Z 34.5N 36.5W 40 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 05/1800Z 34.0N 34.5W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 06/1800Z 32.5N 33.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 07/1800Z 30.0N 34.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 08/1800Z 28.0N 36.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW


$$
NNNN

[MiamiensisWx]

ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM EST SUN DEC 04 2005

AFTER A SLIGHT WEAKENING OVERNIGHT...MORNING SATELLITE IMAGES
INDICATE THAT EPSILON HAS RESTRENGTHENED. THE EYE HAS BECOME MORE
SYMMETRIC AND THE RING OF CONVECTION IS STRONGER THAN YESTERDAY.
T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 4.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE AND ON THIS
BASIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 75 KNOTS. THERE ARE
NO CLEAR REASONS...AND I AM NOT GOING TO MAKE ONE UP...TO EXPLAIN
THE RECENT STRENGTHENING OF EPSILON AND I AM JUST DESCRIBING THE
FACTS. HOWEVER...I STILL HAVE TO MAKE AN INTENSITY FORECAST AND THE
BEST BET AT THIS TIME IS TO PREDICT WEAKENING DUE TO COLD WATER
...HIGH SHEAR AND DRY AIR.

EPSILON IS MOVING EASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS...RUNNING AHEAD OF A STRONG
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. BUT SOON...ACCORDING TO THE GLOBAL
MODELS...THE CYCLONE WILL BE TRAPPED SOUTH OF A DEVELOPING RIDGE
WHICH EVENTUALLY FORCE EPSILON SOUTHWARD AND THEN SOUTHWESTWARD.
THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD GUIDANCE AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THIS MOTION.
ALTHOUGH EPSILON WILL ENCOUNTER WARMER WATERS ONCE IT MOVES TOWARD
THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE AND EPSILON WILL LIKELY BECOME A REMNANT LOW. I
HEARD THAT BEFORE ABOUT EPSILON...HAVEN'T YOU?

FORECASTER AVILA


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 04/1500Z 34.3N 39.2W 75 KT
12HR VT 05/0000Z 34.3N 37.2W 60 KT
24HR VT 05/1200Z 34.0N 35.0W 50 KT
36HR VT 06/0000Z 33.5N 33.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 06/1200Z 32.0N 33.5W 30 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 07/1200Z 29.0N 36.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 08/1200Z 25.5N 39.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 09/1200Z 21.5N 44.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW


$$
NNNN

[AussieMark]

ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT JUL 23 2005

FRANKLIN...THE STORM...NOT THE FORECASTER...HAS BECOME A LITTLE
BETTER ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT. REPORTS FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT A FEW HOURS AGO INDICATE THAT THE WIND
FIELD HAS BECOME MORE SYMMETRIC WHILE THE PRESSURE CONTINUED A SLOW
BUT STEADY FALL...TO 1001 MB AT 05Z. THE PEAK 850 MB FLIGHT LEVEL
WINDS WERE 57 KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...WHICH SUPPORTS A SOLID
45 KT AS THE SURFACE ESTIMATE.

THE RECONNAISSANCE FIXES INDICATE THAT FRANKLIN HAS TURNED TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATED TO BE 030/7. THE
SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT OF THE CYCLONE IS COMPLICATED...RESULTING IN
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN BOTH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS.
A MID-LATITUDE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS THROUGH THE CAROLINAS
IS ABOUT TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC. IN THE SHORT
TERM...THIS IS EXPECTED TO FORCE FRANKLIN TO TURN TO THE NORTHEAST.
HOWEVER...THIS TROUGH WILL ALSO BRING CONSIDERABLE VERTICAL SHEAR
WITH IT...AND BY 36-48 HOURS...THE CYCLONE WILL FIND ITSELF UNDER
AN UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL NORTHERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. IN
FACT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALREADY IS SHOWING A RESTRICTION OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW TO THE NORTH OF FRANKLIN. THE FUTURE TRACK OF
FRANKLIN IS VERY MUCH TIED TO HOW IT RESPONDS TO THIS IMPENDING
SHEAR...AND THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS HIGHLY DIVERGENT. THE GFS
DECOUPLES THE CYCLONE'S LOW AND MID-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS AND RACES A
WEAK SYSTEM EAST-NORTHEASTWARD IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE NOGAPS
AND UKMET MODELS MAINTAIN A STRONGER...MORE VERTICALLY CONNECTED
SYSTEM THAT ALSO MOVES TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST BUT MUCH MORE SLOWLY.
THE GFDL HAS A RATHER SURPRISING SOLUTION IN THAT IT IS BOTH
RELATIVELY FAST WITH THE EASTWARD MOTION AND YET ALSO FORECASTS
FRANKLIN TO ATTAIN AND THEN MAINTAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH FOR ALMOST
72 HOURS.

SO WHAT TO DO WITH THIS RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES? SMALL SYSTEMS ARE
FREQUENTLY NOT THAT RESISTENT TO SHEAR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
THEREFORE CONSIDERABLY FASTER THAN THE NOGAPS OR UKMET GUIDANCE.
HOWEVER...THE GFS IS ALREADY TOO FAST...SO PERHAPS NONE OF THE
INDIVIDUAL DYNAMICAL MODELS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS PARTICULAR
FORECAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A PRIMARILY A BLEND OF
CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...THE SHALLOW BAM...THE GUNA
CONSENSUS...AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE...AND IS ONLY COINCIDENTALLY
CLOSE TO THE GFDL. THE FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED SOMEWHAT
SOUTHWARD...AND DOES SHOW A CLOSE APPROACH TO BERMUDA IN 72 HOURS.
IT IS WORTH NOTING HOWEVER...THAT SOME OF THE LARGEST TRACK ERRORS
OCCUR IN HIGH-SHEAR SCENARIOS SUCH AS THIS ONE.

THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION IS WELL EMBEDDED IN A SMALL CIRCULAR AREA
OF DEEP CONVECTION...AND EARLIER RECONNAISSANCE DATA SUGGESTED THAT
THE CYCLONE WAS GETTING READY TO STRENGTHEN. CONSEQUENTLY...THE
SHORT-TERM PROSPECTS FOR INTENSIFICATION ARE GOOD. HOWEVER...THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR DEVELOPMENT IN THE LONG RUN APPEARS LIMITED...WITH
AN INCREASE IN SHEAR AND A DECREASE IN SSTS SEEMINGLY IN THE
CYCLONE'S FUTURE. IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT LITTLE OR NOTHING WILL
BE LEFT OF FRANKLIN...THE STORM...NOT THE FORECASTER...IN 2-3 DAYS.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 23/0900Z 29.1N 75.9W 45 KT
12HR VT 23/1800Z 30.0N 74.8W 55 KT
24HR VT 24/0600Z 30.8N 73.0W 60 KT
36HR VT 24/1800Z 31.4N 71.0W 60 KT
48HR VT 25/0600Z 31.8N 69.0W 55 KT
72HR VT 26/0600Z 32.5N 65.0W 50 KT
96HR VT 27/0600Z 35.0N 60.5W 45 KT
120HR VT 28/0600Z 39.0N 56.0W 40 KT

[HURAKAN]

This is fun!!! We are compiling the humorous side of the NHC!!!!

[wxmann_91]

I found this error funny that I saved before the NHC corrected it:

AFTER EXTRACURRICULAR TRANSITION...THE SYSTEM
WILL LIKELY MERGE WITH OR BECOME ABSORBED BY ANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE NEAR SOUTHERN GREENLAND.

From Irene 2005 Advisory 48.

[MGC]

Here is one I wish that was issued.....

Bulletin NHC August 29, 2005 1011UTC

Hurricane Katrina evaporates.....

AF recon reports this evening that Hurricane Katrina has apparently evaporated into thin air. Thus, the threat to the Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama coast has been reduced to zero. All warning have been discontinued. Get back to enjoying your life.

Yea, it is nice to dream.......MGC

[wxmann_91]

What one had that "extracurricular" thing in it? I forgot it, what was it again?

Just posted it.

[wxmann_91]

And probably the most famous quote from the 2005 Hurricane Season:

SO FAR...THE 2005 HURRICANE SEASON SEEMS
TO HAVE LITTLE INTEREST IN CLIMATOLOGY.

-Emily Disco 8

[Ixolib]

And probably the most famous quote from the 2005 Hurricane Season:

SO FAR...THE 2005 HURRICANE SEASON SEEMS
TO HAVE LITTLE INTEREST IN CLIMATOLOGY.

-Emily Disco 8

Yeah!! That was a good one...

Isn't it amazing to look back at the original post on page one of this thread and see the words from senorpepr who said: "Okay, with tropical activity at a minimum..."

My, how times did change.

[Jim Cantore]

Great topic! This was really funny to read and made me laugh. Thanks for giving me something to smile about.

ditto

[brunota2003]

All these are for Epsilon, with my comentary thrown in, areas in "" are NHC...have fun... these are also in order that they were issued...

“CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY...NEARBY SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS...AND 29/0938Z QUIKSCAT SATELLITE WIND DATA INDICATE THE LARGE NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 730 NMI EAST OF
BERMUDA HAS ACQUIRED ENOUGH CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER TO BE
CLASSIFIED AS TROPICAL STORM EPSILON...THE 26TH NAMED STORM OF THE
APPARENTLY NEVER ENDING 2005 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON.” One side note though, when the first forecast came out, Epsilon was forecasted to become Extra-Tropical, or Non-Tropical, 96 hours after the forecast was issued, Epsilon did not do that, nor did it die, 7 days after it was supposed to become Non-Tropical, Epsilon died as a tropical storm. “DESPITE MOVING OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER WATER SINCE THIS TIME YESTERDAY...EPSILON HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITH A SOLID CONVECTIVE BAND NOW WRAPPING COMPLETELY AROUND THE CYCLONE CENTER...WHICH HAS PRODUCED A WELL-DEFINED 25 NMI DIAMETER EYE.” “EPSILON IS A TENACIOUS TROPICAL CYCLONE WHICH HAS MAINTAINED HURRICANE INTENSITY OVER COOL WATERS AND APPARENT UNFAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS.” “EPSILON HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN AGAINST ALL ODDS. THE CLOUD PATTERN IS REMARKABLY WELL-ORGANIZED FOR A HURRICANE AT HIGH LATITUDE IN DECEMBER...” “THE HURRICANE IS MOVING EASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS...IT APPEARS THAT EPSILON IS RUNNING AWAY FROM THE APPROACHING HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT.” “EPSILON MIGHT OR MIGHT NOT STILL BE A HURRICANE... BUT IN ANY CASE IT LIKELY WILL NOT BE ONE ON SUNDAY... SINCE IT IS HEADED FOR EVEN COOLER WATERS WHILE DRIER AIR AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER WESTERLIES ARE NOT FAR BEHIND.” “THERE ARE NO CLEAR REASONS...AND I AM NOT GOING TO MAKE ONE UP...TO EXPLAIN THE RECENT STRENGTHENING OF EPSILON AND I AM JUST DESCRIBING THE FACTS. HOWEVER...I STILL HAVE TO MAKE AN INTENSITY FORECAST AND THE
BEST BET AT THIS TIME IS TO PREDICT WEAKENING DUE TO COLD WATER
...HIGH SHEAR AND DRY AIR.” “THE END IS IN SIGHT. IT REALLY REALLY IS. BUT IN THE MEANTIME...EPSILON CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN HURRICANE STATUS.” “THE END IS IN SIGHT...YES...BUT NOT QUITE YET. I THOUGHT I WAS GOING TO FIND A WEAKENING SYSTEM AND INSTEAD I FOUND THAT EPSILON IS STILL A HURRICANE. AS IT HAS DONE EVERY MORNING...THE CONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPED AROUND THE LARGE AND DISTINCT EYE....KICKING THE DVORAK T-NUMBERS BACK UP AGAIN.” Final Advisory for Epsilon: “I HOPE THIS IS THE END OF THE LONG LASTING 2005 HURRICANE SEASON.”

[psyclone]

long time lurker, first post...comic relief from stewart in 2003 on the last sentence
ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED SEP 03 2003

PREVIOUS DEEP CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED AND MOVED EASTWARD AWAY FROM
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. SOME SMALLER CIRCULATIONS HAVE BEEN NOTED
MOVING CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE MEAN CENTER...BUT I HAVE OPTED TO
REMAIN CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY LOCATION BASED ON NIGHTIME
VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND NO APPARENT CHANGE IN
THE SURROUNDING WIND FIELD NOTED IN THE GULF BUOY OBSERVATIONS. THE
LAST RECON REPORT AROUND 03/2116Z INDICATED THAT THE PRESSURE HAD
DROPPED TO 1011 MB AND THAT PRESSURE WAS USED FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE DEPRESSION HAS ESSENTIALLY BEEN STATIONARY FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS
OR SO AS THE CYCLONE REMAINS CAUGHT IN THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AXIS THAT EXTENDS EAST-WEST ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
HOWEVER...A GRADUAL ACCELERATION TO THE NORTHEAST OR EAST-NORTHEAST
IS EXPECTED TO RESUME IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO AS A MID-LEVEL
TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SHIFTS EASTWARD TO THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND SLOWLY PICKS UP TD-12. THE FORECAST TRACK IS
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK...BUT A LITTLE SLOWER AS THE RIDGE
BETWEEN TD-12 AND HURRICANE FABIAN IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AND
SLOW THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE DEPRESSION. BY 72 HOURS...AFTER
FABIAN IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD...THE RIDGE
BETWEEN THE TWO CYCLONES SHOULD WEAKEN AND ALLOW FOR TD-12 TO MOVE
MORE RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. THIS
SCENARIO IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE GFS AND THE GFDL MODELS.

THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY UNDER MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL
SHEAR. ALSO...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT MID-/UPPER-LEVEL
DRY AIR HAS BEEN PUNCHING INTO THE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTH. HOWEVER
...MOISTURE FROM A LARGE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER THE YUCATAN MAY
GET DRAWN INTO THE SYSTEM IN ABOUT 12 TO 18 HOURS WHEN THE SHEAR IS
ALSO FORECAST TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY. THIS MAY ALLOW CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP AND PERSIST NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...AND ALSO ALLOW THE
DEPRESSION TO REACH TROPICAL STORM STATUS. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS
THAT IT WILL BE ROUGHLY 24 HOURS OR SO BEFORE THE DEPRESSION CAN
BECOMES "HENRI THE 8TH"...TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON.
FORECASTER STEWART

[brunota2003]

IF FLIGHT-LEVEL OBSERVATIONS WERE ALL WE HAD...ISABEL WOULD BE A
CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE. THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT THIS
AFTERNOON FOUND A NUMBER OF SPOTS OF WINDS OF 110-120 KT. THIS
WOULD NORMALLY CORRESPOND TO SURFACE WINDS OF 100-105 KT.
HOWEVER...NUMEROUS DROPSONDE PROFILES IN THE HIGH WIND REGIONS OF
THE CIRCULATION SHOW A CONSISTENT AND UNUSUALLY STEEP FALL-OFF OF
WIND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE MEAGER
CONVECTION IN THE HURRICANE CORE.

that is pretty funny IMO...