Excellent model agreement this far out for Dennis

[Rainband]

I will feel better when we get the 8pm data. Any chance of this going west into Mexico??

[x-y-no]

Since the models don't have the recon data won't the new models at 8pm have more accurate information to provide?

I doubt the data from this recon makes it into the evening runs - we'll probably have to wait till morning to get the benefit of that.

[Rainband]

Since the models don't have the recon data won't the new models at 8pm have more accurate information to provide?

I doubt the data from this recon makes it into the evening runs - we'll probably have to wait till morning to get the benefit of that.

thanks I am not worried but I need to be proactive if theres a chance this system could threaten my area. My Mom is disabled.

[ALhurricane]

The GFS and ECMWF are showing the track as pretty close to the worst case scenario for New Orleans.

It is way too early in the game to be thinking about particular landfall points.

[Brent]

I will feel better when we get the 8pm data. Any chance of this going west into Mexico??

It's always possible, but very unlikely. There will be a weakness to allow it go northward some.

I wouldn't completely rule out an Allen-type TRACK yet(South Texas).

[Rainband]

The GFS and ECMWF are showing the track as pretty close to the worst case scenario for New Orleans.

It is way too early in the game to be thinking about particular landfall points.

Question..from what I have read in the past the GFS stinks. Now all of a sudden it's accurate. You guys confuse me sometimes

[Weatherboy1]

If you really zoom in on Dennis using the GHCC site at:

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goes.html

it APPEARS that the center may be a bit farther N of where the NHC had it fixed. My best guess is 14.9N 67.8W ... there appears to be an exposed LLC there with a small blob on its SE edge. Wish I could paste the image, but I don't know how. Anyway, I could be off base, but this may end up shifting the ultimate forecast track a bit farther N. All of this is my opinion ... have to see where recon locates the LLC to see if I'm A) crazy or B) on target. (Still don't think this thing's going to bother me in SE FL, though!)

[dwg71]

wxboy, I agree with that fix...

[Rainband]

[ALhurricane]

Rainband,

I have not glorified the GFS one bit here All you have to do is ask me about the GFS and Frances last year and you will hear some blunt things (please don't ask )

That is where forecasting and understanding patterns come into play. The GFS solution is a very viable one. Another thing going for it is that is has other model agreement, in particular the esteemed ECMWF.

The GFS is not perfect by any means, but it is not as horrible as some would like to make you think. Every event is different.

[Rainband]

Thanks for the reply

[HURRICANELONNY]

It is kind of surprising that the models are in agreement this far out. Well at least they will be all right or all wrong. I remember a couple of storms traveling at this speed that turned into an open wave because the LLC couldn't keep up. By the way we broke a record for those that don't know. Never were there 4 named storms before July 5th.

[Johnny]

Don't focus on exact tracks, but in the overall track trends.

This is what I figured...thanks for the reply.

[Rainband]

Yeah I read that. I will be happy when the recon data is fed into the models. Then I will be more confident I am safe!!

[x-y-no]

The GFS and ECMWF are showing the track as pretty close to the worst case scenario for New Orleans.

It is way too early in the game to be thinking about particular landfall points.

Question..from what I have read in the past the GFS stinks. Now all of a sudden it's accurate. You guys confuse me sometimes

Well ... as I've said before, all models have qurks and problems. The GFS, overall, is a top model, especially when it comes to looking at what's happening at mid-latitudes. But it has some quirks which cause it to spit out some completely implausible solutions at times.

For instance, last year it had a tendency to turn strong systems straight into a ridge to their north. This led to pretty serios track errors with Frances and Ivan in particular. This issue may or may not have been solved - we need to watch it's performance a while longer to know.

One bad tendency it has exhibited this year is to spin up phantom tropical storms. Something to do with the way it handles convection.

Jan

[dhweather]

I wonder when it willl actually become a hurricane? Lots of gloom and doom forecasts, but there's not a dense CDO, it's moving rather quickly
West - so before or after Cuba?

[x-y-no]

I wonder when it willl actually become a hurricane? Lots of gloom and doom forecasts, but there's not a dense CDO, it's moving rather quickly
West - so before or after Cuba?

I'd say well before. Tomorrow sometime, probably.

[otowntiger]

Everyone is talking about the trend of the models. Well all the models could very well trend back to the right (east) as there is plenty of time for the dynamics to change. I'm not too sure that you can even put too much credence in the trends because one day they may trend westward, another day, they can trend eastward. I've seen it time and time again.

[Normandy]

Its getting better organized as well....itll be interesting to see how strong it is when recon gets there.

[Houstonia]

I will feel better when we get the 8pm data. Any chance of this going west into Mexico??

It's always possible, but very unlikely. There will be a weakness to allow it go northward some.

I wouldn't completely rule out an Allen-type TRACK yet(South Texas).

Bring it on!! We on the central Texas coast NEED THE RAIN!! All Cindy is going to do is suck the water out of the air, leaving us with more sun and probably more humidity.