Can we say hello to Emily? 2.5/2.5

#21 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jul 11, 2005 1:59 pm

HURAKAN wrote:Sometimes Dvorak numbers can favor upgrades but if the NHC doesn't believe that the system deserves an upgrade, they won't do it.

Yes sometimes they fool us.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #22 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Mon Jul 11, 2005 2:00 pm

If it was an the Gulf(Lets not fool our selfs) It would be getting upgraded.

jax · #23 Postby **jax** » Mon Jul 11, 2005 2:01 pm

they made referance to that on the 11am discussion...

#24 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jul 11, 2005 2:02 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE (AL052005) ON 20050711 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050711 1800 050712 0600 050712 1800 050713 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 10.5N 45.4W 10.7N 47.7W 10.9N 50.1W 11.3N 52.7W
BAMM 10.5N 45.4W 10.7N 48.0W 11.3N 50.8W 11.8N 53.6W
A98E 10.5N 45.4W 10.6N 47.6W 11.0N 50.0W 11.6N 52.6W
LBAR 10.5N 45.4W 10.5N 47.8W 10.9N 50.7W 11.4N 53.8W
SHIP 30KTS 36KTS 43KTS 50KTS
DSHP 30KTS 36KTS 43KTS 50KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050713 1800 050714 1800 050715 1800 050716 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 11.8N 55.6W 13.6N 62.0W 15.8N 67.8W 17.0N 73.2W
BAMM 12.6N 56.6W 14.6N 63.0W 16.8N 69.0W 18.1N 74.8W
A98E 12.2N 55.3W 13.8N 60.7W 15.3N 65.9W 16.4N 71.0W
LBAR 11.6N 57.1W 12.6N 63.9W 14.8N 70.1W .0N .0W
SHIP 57KTS 67KTS 75KTS 79KTS
DSHP 57KTS 67KTS 75KTS 62KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.5N LONCUR = 45.4W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 10.4N LONM12 = 43.2W DIRM12 = 267DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 10.6N LONM24 = 41.3W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

Well the 18:00z guidance mantains it as a TD.But the official word will be at 5 PM.That is why the title of thread is a question Can we say hello to Emily? not Breaking News Emily is born.

#25 Postby **vbhoutex** » Mon Jul 11, 2005 2:04 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:If it was an the Gulf(Lets not fool our selfs) It would be getting upgraded.

And if it was in the GOM it would be a threat to somewhere much sooner. Where it is now it is at least 3 days out and delaying upgrade till they are certain of what they have won't hurt anything and IMO makes sense. As good as it looks right now, looks can be decieving.

Ixolib · #26 Postby **Ixolib** » Mon Jul 11, 2005 2:06 pm

Brent wrote:
ohiostorm wrote:What is the earliest a 5th storm has formed?

July 24th, 1966. TWC was talking about it earlier.

13 days from now...

We could have 5, 6 AND 7 by then!! :lol:

Website · #27 Postby **Brent** » Mon Jul 11, 2005 2:07 pm

Ixolib wrote:
Brent wrote:
ohiostorm wrote:What is the earliest a 5th storm has formed?

July 24th, 1966. TWC was talking about it earlier.

13 days from now...

We could have 5, 6 AND 7 by then!!

At this rate... :eek:

I think I already see future TD 6 behind TD 5 and another disturbance behind that. It's way too early for an African wave train.

#28 Postby **Trader Ron** » Mon Jul 11, 2005 2:09 pm

jax wrote:Hello Emily!

I say through the Crib, south of PR, Hati, Jamaica, east of Yucatan
and into Corpus Cristy CAT 4... a wiggle and a waggle...

Wow, you have some crystal ball... :lol:

j/k

#29 Postby **MWatkins** » Mon Jul 11, 2005 2:09 pm

Interesting the models were initialized at 30 knots...so still probably a TD. New fixes from TAFB aren't availalbe but AFWA was fixing the center a bit to the N (10.6 44.8 at 1530Z) as well and pegged it a 2.5...so the NHC must either believe that's not the center, or TAFB still has it down at a 2.0 further south, or both.

MW

#30 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jul 11, 2005 2:11 pm

MWatkins wrote:Interesting the models were initialized at 30 knots...so still probably a TD. New fixes from TAFB aren't availalbe but AFWA was fixing the center a bit to the N (10.6 44.8 at 1530Z) as well and pegged it a 2.5...so the NHC must either believe that's not the center, or TAFB still has it down at a 2.0 further south, or both.

MW

Yes Mike that is why I did not go ahead and proclaim with breaking news it as Emily.

But let's see what they do at 5.

Website · #31 Postby **Brent** » Mon Jul 11, 2005 2:12 pm

I hate waiting on these far-out TD's to become storms...

jax · #32 Postby **jax** » Mon Jul 11, 2005 2:26 pm

Trader Ron wrote:
jax wrote:Hello Emily!

I say through the Crib, south of PR, Hati, Jamaica, east of Yucatan
and into Corpus Cristy CAT 4... a wiggle and a waggle...

Wow, you have some crystal ball... j/k

looking at the ridges and troughs... tendencies an extrapolating forward
in time... it's my best guess... we will have to wait and see.

Derek Ortt · #33 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Mon Jul 11, 2005 2:49 pm

I believe 1997 was the earliest that the 5th storm formed, that being Danny (subtrops were not named then but did count in the season total) sometime around July 15 or 16

Website · #34 Postby **Brent** » Mon Jul 11, 2005 2:52 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:I believe 1997 was the earliest that the 5th storm formed, that being Danny (subtrops were not named then but did count in the season total) sometime around July 15 or 16

Danny formed early on the 16th... so your right.

It sat in Mobile Bay late on the 18th through late on the 19th.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #35 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Mon Jul 11, 2005 2:55 pm

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/1997st01.html

Here is that Subtropical storm..June 1 to 2.

Also this year all the systems but maybe Arlene are tropical. Instead of the of mostly subtropical system(Starting out from cold lows/fronts. Like 1997.

Sanibel · #36 Postby **Sanibel** » Mon Jul 11, 2005 2:57 pm

An active CDO burst like that usually indicates TS - especially in a compact swirl like that...

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #37 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Mon Jul 11, 2005 3:01 pm

Looking at visible/the buoy at 50 something west shows that the cirulation has gotten stronger. Its still the overall circ is broad. But looking at satellite shows that the flow is moving into the top in on the northwest side. While inflow is coming back around the southeast side. I think for one there is a well defined LLC developing under the deep convection. With overall outflow becoming better oreganized.

wxwatcher91 · #38 Postby **wxwatcher91** » Mon Jul 11, 2005 3:02 pm

it's strange, when a major hurricane is nearing land with 2-hour updates, like Dennis, I feel stressed to get the updates as soon as possible, but when there's a tropical depression nowhere near land with 6-hour updates, like TD 5, I feel very very bored and anxious to hear the next update...

#39 Postby **dhweather** » Mon Jul 11, 2005 3:04 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:If it was an the Gulf(Lets not fool our selfs) It would be getting upgraded.

It would also have recon in it though.

#40 Postby **dhweather** » Mon Jul 11, 2005 3:06 pm

Brent wrote:
Derek Ortt wrote:I believe 1997 was the earliest that the 5th storm formed, that being Danny (subtrops were not named then but did count in the season total) sometime around July 15 or 16

Danny formed early on the 16th... so your right.

It sat in Mobile Bay late on the 18th through late on the 19th.

Man, how the memory fails!

You jogged my memory for Danny - the rainfest for Mobile as he
sat there, and sat there, and sat there.

TD 5 still looks a bit vertically un-aligned to me - anyone else?

Can we say hello to Emily? 2.5/2.5

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