Don't think Em will visit Mexico.....

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corpusbreeze
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#21 Postby corpusbreeze » Tue Jul 19, 2005 9:24 am

Derek Ortt wrote:the motion is not due west. Recon is still showing 295.

Last night some were saying it had turned, yet it gained a full degree of lat since then
Agree , I said last night, and again today, that she will stair step all the way to the coast. Its one of the most nerve racking ways a cane can come ashore. NHC is admitting that the ridge is not as strong. But I have been through this before , saying almost the same things about the NHC, and BAMB.... that turn they forecast comes about.
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#22 Postby Derecho » Tue Jul 19, 2005 9:33 am

Derek Ortt wrote:the motion is not due west. Recon is still showing 295.

Last night some were saying it had turned, yet it gained a full degree of lat since then



It was 293 between the 930Z and 1111Z vortexes, but down to 280 degrees between the 1111Z and 12:44Z vortexes...and based on satellite and radar it's basically west since then.

This has basically zero chance of making landfall N, or even all that near, the border.
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djtil
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#23 Postby djtil » Tue Jul 19, 2005 9:35 am

NHC is admitting that the ridge is not as strong


actually in the last discussion the NHC said that the models may be UNDERestimating the ridge.

not sure where you (or the original poster) gets your data....but stick with the NHC...
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djtil
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#24 Postby djtil » Tue Jul 19, 2005 9:39 am

Texas is out of the cone!!


http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200505.html
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Mississippi Storm Magnet
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#25 Postby Mississippi Storm Magnet » Tue Jul 19, 2005 9:52 am

Pebbles wrote:
LOL I thought the northern eye wall was 'the worst weather' ...
But looking at radar now it looks like it's heading west and may spare brownville the eyewall.. long as it doens't do a wobble!



You said the "w" word!!! :-)


And so does the NHC in the 10 AM Discussion.....
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Pebbles
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#26 Postby Pebbles » Tue Jul 19, 2005 10:06 am

The "W" word ... LOL cute! :) And let the WOBBLE WARS begin!!
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#27 Postby huricanwatcher » Tue Jul 19, 2005 10:07 am




i think my eyes must be deceiving me.. but looks like south TX is still in the cone
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#28 Postby djtil » Tue Jul 19, 2005 10:09 am

yep...better schedule an eye doctor appt....

:lol:
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#29 Postby Sanibel » Tue Jul 19, 2005 11:23 am

I can't see how anyone would think this would hit Texas?

Maybe Brownsville will get tropical storm force outer bands.
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#30 Postby dwg71 » Tue Jul 19, 2005 11:25 am

huricanwatcher wrote:



i think my eyes must be deceiving me.. but looks like south TX is still in the cone


Texas is out of the NHC cone of error, or cone of terror - you decide.
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#31 Postby BLHutch » Tue Jul 19, 2005 12:10 pm

dwg71 wrote: or cone of terror - you decide.


Cone of terror. I like that. You know, maybe if the NHC would refer to it as that, more people might pay attention to watches and warnings, etc.

Brady
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