H Emily Recon Reports

clfenwi · #21 Postby **clfenwi** » Tue Jul 19, 2005 9:50 pm

supplemental vortex

Storm: Storm EMILY: Observed By AF #307
Storm #05 in Atlantic Ocean1
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were 122KT (140.3mph 225.9km/h) In NE Quadrant At 21:26:00 Z
Estimated Max Surface Winds 109.8KT (126.3mph 203.3km/h) * (Report Time: 20/0238Z)
Max Inbound Flight Level Winds: 24.6N 96.1W 108KT (124.2MPH 200.0km/h) [01:24:50Z to 01:51:40Z]
Max Outbound Flight Level Winds: 24.4N 96.4W 101KT (116.15MPH 187.1km/h) [02:00:20Z to 02:25:30Z]
Data # Position Height Temp Dewpoint Wind
O01 25.7N 94.9W 700mb Height @ 3132m 7°C 6°C 060KT (69MPH 111.1 km/h) @ 130°
O02 25.5N 95.1W 700mb Height @ 3116m 7°C 7°C 065KT (74.75MPH 120.4 km/h) @ 130°
O03 25.4N 95.3W 700mb Height @ 3093m 9°C 9°C 073KT (83.95MPH 135.2 km/h) @ 130°
O04 25.2N 95.5W 700mb Height @ 3066m 9°C 9°C 079KT (90.85MPH 146.3 km/h) @ 130°
O05 25.0N 95.7W 700mb Height @ 3022m 10°C 10°C 082KT (94.3MPH 151.9 km/h) @ 140°
O06 24.8N 95.9W 700mb Height @ 2943m 11°C 11°C 077KT (88.55MPH 142.6 km/h) @ 130°
O07 24.6N 96.1W 700mb Height @ 2803m 11°C 11°C 098KT (112.7MPH 181.5 km/h) @ 130°
O01 24.3N 96.5W 700mb Height @ 2866m 12°C 11°C 079KT (90.85MPH 146.3 km/h) @ 330°
O02 24.1N 96.7W 700mb Height @ 2969m 10°C 10°C 058KT (66.7MPH 107.4 km/h) @ 320°
O03 23.9N 96.9W 700mb Height @ 3026m 9°C 9°C 061KT (70.15MPH 113.0 km/h) @ 320°
O04 23.7N 97.1W 700mb Height @ 3058m 9°C 9°C 053KT (60.95MPH 98.2 km/h) @ 320°
O05 23.6N 97.3W 700mb Height @ 3083m 7°C 7°C 054KT (62.1MPH 100.0 km/h) @ 320°
O06 23.4N 97.4W 700mb Height @ 3102m 8°C 7°C 048KT (55.2MPH 88.9 km/h) @ 320°
O07 23.2N 97.6W 700mb Height @ 3117m 10°C 7°C 041KT (47.15MPH 75.9 km/h) @ 330°

mike18xx · #22 Postby **mike18xx** » Tue Jul 19, 2005 9:57 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:but dropsonde winds suggest winds of 130 m.p.h.

Curious: What is the rational for giving dropsonde samplings lesser credence than extrapolated flight-level recordings when it comes to making a call on an advisory?

Derek Ortt · #23 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Tue Jul 19, 2005 10:16 pm

I have no idea to be honest

the data suggests 115KT. Maybe it was missed or something

gkrangers · #24 Postby **gkrangers** » Tue Jul 19, 2005 10:29 pm

I've got a fever...and the only prescription....is MORE RECON!

mike18xx · #25 Postby **mike18xx** » Tue Jul 19, 2005 10:31 pm

"I'm bein' robbed!"

(I forecast 2nd max of 135mph on this thing.)

clfenwi · #26 Postby **clfenwi** » Tue Jul 19, 2005 10:33 pm

0319. 2402N 09559W 03048 0005 219 066 088 088 067 03103 0000000000
0320 2403N 09601W 03049 5003 218 065 082 082 065 03096 0000000000
0320. 2404N 09602W 03050 5012 218 063 076 076 066 03087 0000000100
0321 2406N 09603W 03045 5020 223 058 080 080 059 03076 0000000100
0321. 2407N 09604W 03049 5025 221 057 100 100 058 03074 0000000000
0322 2409N 09606W 03051 5033 220 061 098 098 065 03068 0000000000
0322. 2410N 09607W 03043 5041 222 058 092 092 059 03052 0000000000
0323 2411N 09608W 03051 5049 222 059 108 108 060 03053 0000000000
0323. 2413N 09609W 03047 5058 219 061 118 118 062 03039 0000000000
0324 2414N 09611W 03048 5067 218 061 120 120 061 03031 0000000000
0324. 2416N 09612W 03048 5077 216 063 122 122 064 03020 0000000000
0325 2417N 09613W 03048 5088 218 065 122 122 065 03010 0000000000
0325. 2419N 09614W 03048 5100 219 065 124 122 065 02998 0000000000
0326 2420N 09615W 03047 5113 218 067 124 118 067 02983 0000000000
0326. 2422N 09617W 03050 5128 215 068 122 116 070 02972 0000000000
0327 2423N 09618W 03048 5144 215 073 126 106 074 02954 0000000000
0327. 2424N 09619W 03047 5166 214 076 128 112 077 02931 0000000000
0328 2426N 09621W 03049 5192 214 082 126 114 084 02907 0000000000
0328. 2427N 09622W 03050 5225 214 089 124 124 092 02874 0000000000
0329 2429N 09623W 03054 5269 212 096 118 118 097 02835 0000000000

A pass of the storm from southeast to northwest is currently in progress...

gkrangers · #27 Postby **gkrangers** » Tue Jul 19, 2005 10:41 pm

0329. 2430N 09625W 03050 5320 212 085 108 108 099 02780 0000000000
0330 2431N 09626W 03038 5355 208 049 148 130 057 02732 0000000000
0330. 2432N 09628W 03049 5371 205 027 160 122 034 02727 0000000000
0331 2433N 09630W 03043 5377 198 013 172 108 017 02715 0000000000
0331. 2433N 09632W 03050 5379 301 001 180 094 004 02720 0000000000
0332 2434N 09634W 03045 5381 357 010 182 090 012 02713 0000000000
0332. 2435N 09635W 03053 5383 018 018 192 086 021 02719 0000000000
0333 2436N 09637W 03049 5385 033 025 194 092 028 02713 0000000000
0333. 2437N 09638W 03045 5378 033 037 192 098 043 02716 0000000000
0334 2438N 09639W 03048 5364 036 058 178 118 064 02733 0000000000
0334. 2440N 09641W 03051 5338 043 085 142 142 097 02762 0000000000
0335 2441N 09642W 03043 5295 046 112 100 100 113 02798 0000000100
0335. 2442N 09643W 03051 5255 048 108 090 090 110 02846 0000000100
0336 2443N 09644W 03046 5219 049 108 092 092 109 02877 0000000100
0336. 2444N 09645W 03050 5185 048 104 112 112 107 02914 0000000000
0337 2445N 09646W 03052 5160 051 098 116 116 100 02941 0000000000
0337. 2446N 09648W 03045 5138 052 094 114 114 096 02957 0000000000
0338 2448N 09649W 03048 5121 054 089 118 116 090 02977 0000000000
0338. 2449N 09650W 03050 5105 056 088 120 106 089 02994 0000000000
0339 2450N 09652W 03046 5090 055 084 118 110 085 03006 0000000000

clfenwi · #28 Postby **clfenwi** » Tue Jul 19, 2005 10:51 pm

Storm EMILY: Observed By AF #302
Storm #05 in Atlantic Ocean1
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were 108KT (124.2mph 200.0km/h) In NE Quadrant At 01:52:40 Z
Estimated Max Surface Winds 97.2KT (111.8mph 180.0km/h) *
Misc Remarks: STADIUM EFFECT VISIBLE IN MOONLIGHT
Date/Time of Recon Report: Invalid Date (Invalid Date)
Position of the center: 24° 33' N 096° 32' W (24.6°N 96.5°W)
Minimum Height Measured At Standard Level Of 700mb: 2623m (Normal: 3011)
Surface Winds Were: Not Estimated
Estimated Surface Winds Were Measured nm (0miles) From Center At Bearing °
Maximum Flight Level Winds Near Center Were 099KT (113.85mph 183.3km/h) From 211°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were Measured 008nm (9.2 miles) From Center At Bearing 121°
Minimum pressure: 945mb (27.91in)
Eye Wall Was Characterized As Being: CLOSED WALL
Eye Form Was Characterized As Being Circular , 16nm (18.4 mi 29.6km) wide
Center Fix Established Using: Penetration Radar Wind Pressure Temperature
Center Fix Established At Level(s): 700mb
Navigational Accuracy Measured At 0.02nm
Meteorological Accuracy Measured At 3nm

gkrangers · #29 Postby **gkrangers** » Tue Jul 19, 2005 10:53 pm

Must be a pretty sight inside the eye...

Sanibel · #30 Postby **Sanibel** » Tue Jul 19, 2005 11:06 pm

Dry air from west.

945 could be bottom out...

clfenwi · #31 Postby **clfenwi** » Tue Jul 19, 2005 11:21 pm

Time transmitted: 0408Z
Position: 24.5 North // 96.4 West
Sea Level Pressure: 953 millibars
Surface wind speed and direction: 101 knots // 130
925 millibar height: 263 meters
925 millibar winds: 124 knots // 155
850 millibar height: 1006 meters
850 millibar winds: 101 knots // 175
700 millibar height: 2680 meters
700 millibar winds: 77 knots // 215
EYEWALL

Time: 0411Z
Position: 24.6 North // 96.5 West
Sea Level Pressure: 945 mb
Surface wind speed and direction: 16 knots // 160
925 millibar height: 191 meters
925 millibar winds: 14 knots // 170
850 millibar height: 936 meters
850 millibar winds: 14 knots // 180
700 millibar height: 2625 meters
700 millibar winds: 1 knot // 315
EYE

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #32 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Tue Jul 19, 2005 11:25 pm

124 knots or 145 mph flight level which is 135 mph at surface...We got a cat4 most likely.

#33 Postby **Pebbles** » Tue Jul 19, 2005 11:36 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:124 knots or 145 mph flight level which is 135 mph at surface...We got a cat4 most likely.

at 10 percent reduction that's more like 128/129 mph

gkrangers · #34 Postby **gkrangers** » Tue Jul 19, 2005 11:41 pm

0429. 2421N 09704W 03048 5091 332 076 112 108 077 03007 0000000000
0430 2422N 09703W 03047 5104 334 077 114 102 078 02992 0000000000
0430. 2423N 09702W 03049 5119 333 081 118 094 083 02980 0000000000
0431 2424N 09700W 03047 5137 334 085 118 104 086 02960 0000000000
0431. 2424N 09659W 03047 5159 336 089 114 114 091 02938 0000000000
0432 2425N 09658W 03050 5185 337 094 108 108 097 02914 0000000000
0432. 2426N 09656W 03049 5219 334 100 094 094 103 02879 0000000000
0433 2426N 09654W 03054 5263 336 106 094 094 107 02840 0000000100
0433. 2427N 09653W 03046 5313 335 095 104 104 101 02783 0000000100
0434 2428N 09651W 03042 5350 338 068 140 140 077 02742 0000000000
0434. 2429N 09650W 03049 5372 345 040 170 136 052 02726 0000000000
0435 2429N 09648W 03048 5382 360 019 186 118 024 02715 0000000000
0435. 2429N 09646W 03045 5385 020 010 188 110 013 02709 0000000000
0436 2429N 09644W 03048 5384 050 004 192 098 008 02713 0000000000
0436. 2429N 09642W 03049 5386 194 008 192 096 014 02712 0000000000
0437 2428N 09640W 03054 5376 207 026 186 110 036 02727 0000000000
0437. 2429N 09639W 03040 5368 190 057 158 138 065 02721 0000000000
0438 2431N 09637W 03051 5335 184 087 116 116 094 02765 0000000100
0438. 2432N 09635W 03046 5290 175 097 104 104 100 02805 0000000100
0439 2434N 09633W 03046 5240 168 095 124 124 096 02856 0000000000

clfenwi · #35 Postby **clfenwi** » Tue Jul 19, 2005 11:52 pm

Storm: Storm EMILY: Observed By AF #302
Storm #05 in Atlantic Ocean1
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were 108KT (124.2mph 200.0km/h) In NE Quadrant At 01:52:40 Z
Estimated Max Surface Winds 97.2KT (111.8mph 180.0km/h) *
Misc Remarks: STADIUM EFFECT VISIBLE IN MOONLIGHT (Report Time: 20/0420Z)
Max Inbound Flight Level Winds: 24.5N 96.4W 099KT (113.85MPH 183.3km/h) [03:05:50Z to 03:27:00Z]
Max Outbound Flight Level Winds: 24.7N 96.7W 113KT (129.95MPH 209.3km/h) [03:36:00Z to 03:49:00Z]
Data # Position Height Temp Dewpoint Wind
O01 23.5N 95.4W 700mb Height @ 3109m 8°C 8°C 049KT (56.35MPH 90.8 km/h) @ 210°
O02 23.6N 95.6W 700mb Height @ 3089m 8°C 8°C 056KT (64.4MPH 103.7 km/h) @ 210°
O03 23.8N 95.8W 700mb Height @ 3058m 7°C 7°C 058KT (66.7MPH 107.4 km/h) @ 230°
O04 24.0N 96.0W 700mb Height @ 3021m 7°C 7°C 062KT (71.3MPH 114.8 km/h) @ 210°
O05 24.2N 96.1W 700mb Height @ 2958m 11°C 11°C 060KT (69MPH 111.1 km/h) @ 220°
O06 24.4N 96.3W 700mb Height @ 2859m 12°C 10°C 074KT (85.1MPH 137.1 km/h) @ 210°
O01 24.7N 96.7W 700mb Height @ 2804m 10°C 10°C 108KT (124.2MPH 200.0 km/h) @ 50°
O02 24.9N 96.9W 700mb Height @ 2953m 12°C 12°C 080KT (92MPH 148.2 km/h) @ 60°
O03 25.1N 97.1W 700mb Height @ 3033m 10°C 9°C 083KT (95.45MPH 153.7 km/h) @ 50°
O04 25.3N 97.3W 700mb Height @ 3081m 10°C 8°C 062KT (71.3MPH 114.8 km/h) @ 50°

SECONDARY WIND MAXIMUM NORTHWEST OF EYE -- 103KTS AT 25.0N 97.0W

This was from the earlier se-nw pass...somehow managed to put it in another thread...

gkrangers · #36 Postby **gkrangers** » Tue Jul 19, 2005 11:53 pm

0439. 2435N 09632W 03056 5199 162 088 128 128 089 02906 0000000000
0440 2437N 09630W 03046 5177 158 083 128 116 084 02919 0000000000
0440. 2438N 09629W 03049 5157 156 078 128 108 080 02942 0000000000
0441 2440N 09627W 03049 5140 152 075 126 114 075 02958 0000000000
0441. 2441N 09626W 03048 5126 151 073 126 102 075 02971 0000000000
0442 2442N 09625W 03050 5114 149 069 124 112 070 02985 0000000000
0442. 2444N 09623W 03047 5103 149 071 116 114 074 02994 0000000000
0443 2445N 09622W 03048 5091 149 072 112 108 073 03006 0000000000
0443. 2446N 09620W 03046 5083 149 070 104 104 070 03013 0000000000
0444 2448N 09619W 03049 5074 147 071 088 088 072 03024 0000000000
0444. 2449N 09618W 03057 5066 146 083 088 088 090 03040 0000000100
0445 2450N 09616W 03037 5055 142 093 080 080 097 03032 0000000100
0445. 2451N 09615W 03051 5042 139 094 088 088 095 03059 0000000000
0446 2453N 09614W 03048 5033 139 094 094 094 094 03065 0000000000
0446. 2454N 09612W 03049 5024 140 093 100 100 093 03075 0000000000
0447 2455N 09611W 03047 5012 139 091 100 100 092 03084 0000000000
0447. 2456N 09610W 03048 5004 138 087 100 100 089 03094 0000000000
0448 2457N 09609W 03049 0002 140 086 096 096 086 03101 0000000000
0448. 2459N 09607W 03051 0007 144 087 092 092 091 03108 0000000000
0449 2500N 09606W 03044 0012 148 090 080 080 093 03106 0000000000

More evidence of two wind maxima.

gkrangers · #37 Postby **gkrangers** » Wed Jul 20, 2005 12:04 am

063
URNT12 KNHC 200456
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 20/04:36:00Z
B. 24 deg 29 min N
096 deg 43 min W
C. 700 mb 2622 m
D. NA kt
E. deg nm
F. 336 deg 107 kt
G. 254 deg 010 nm
H. 943 mb
I. 10 C/ 3047 m
J. 19 C/ 3047 m
K. 9 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C15
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF302 2105A EMILY OB 18
MAX FL WIND 113 KT NW QUAD 03:34:50 Z
SIGNS OF OUTER EYEWALL FORMING, APPROXIMATELY 30NM IN DIAMETER

Hurricaneman · #38 Postby **Hurricaneman** » Wed Jul 20, 2005 12:22 am

ERC beginning

clfenwi · #39 Postby **clfenwi** » Wed Jul 20, 2005 12:23 am

Observation Number: 20
Time transmitted: 0512Z
Position: 24.5 North // 96.7 West
Sea Level Pressure: 943 millibars
Surface wind speed and direction: 12 knots // 195
925 millibar height: 168 meters
925 millibar winds: 11 knots // 200
850 millibar height: 913 meters
850 millibar winds: 12 knots // 205
700 millibar height: 2613 meters
700 millibar winds: 7 knots // 190
EYE

Observation Number:21
Time transmitted: 0514Z
Position: 24.5 North 96.6 West
Sea Level Pressure: 958 millibars
Surface wind speed and direction: 85 knots // 115
925 millibar height: 315 meters
925 millibar winds: 106 knots // 135
850 millibar height:1056 meters
850 millibar winds: 103 knots // 150
700 millibar height: 2732 meters
700 millibar winds: 101 knots // 175
EYEWALL

#40 Postby **Pebbles** » Wed Jul 20, 2005 1:53 am

667
URNT12 KNHC 200627
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 20/05:57:50Z
B. 24 deg 32 min N
096 deg 51 min W
C. 700 mb 2620 m
D. NA kt
E. deg nm
F. 041 deg 099 kt
G. 324 deg 010 nm
H. 944 mb
I. 10 C/ 3051 m
J. 20 C/ 3048 m
K. 8 C/ NA
L. OPEN SW
M. C015-50
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 5 nm
P. AF302 2105A EMILY OB 25
MAX FL WIND 107 KT SW QUAD 04:32:50 Z
INNER EYEWALL OPEN TO SW, OUTER EYEWALL FORMING FROM SPIRAL BANDS

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