Do you anticipate that the season may be quieter from here on out? Just your educated opinion, please-I'm not going to hold you to it.
Is there any reason to suspect that the mid-Atlantic trough will continue or deepen?
Thanks,
Lynn
Scary quote from NWS San Juan
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HurricaneQueen
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cycloneye
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WATER VAPOR SUGGESTS THE TROPICAL
ATLC IS MUCH MORE MOIST ALOFT THAN EARLIER WITH LESS SUBSIDENCE
NOTED ESPECIALLY E OF 50W.
$$
BLAKE
The above is the last sentence from the discussion at 8:05 PM from TPC.The sal is not playing a big roll right now in the tropical atlantic.
ATLC IS MUCH MORE MOIST ALOFT THAN EARLIER WITH LESS SUBSIDENCE
NOTED ESPECIALLY E OF 50W.
$$
BLAKE
The above is the last sentence from the discussion at 8:05 PM from TPC.The sal is not playing a big roll right now in the tropical atlantic.
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Hurricaneman
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Re: HurricaneQueen's post
Hi Lynn,
There is a new topic on this board titled "RIDGE GONE, big trough over east" that also talks about the trough in the Atlantic.
I first noticed this feature about 2 or 3 weeks ago, and, overall it seems that there is more of a weakness in the subtropical ridge than last year at this time, which is a good thing, and can mean that even if there are many well-developed Cape Verde systems, it's possible that because of this weakness, some or even many will recurve into the mid-Atlantic.
In past posts I had used the 1981 season, which began early but "ended" early because of a deeping long-term trough in the mid-Atlantic, that allowed 4 or 5 major Cape Verde hurricanes to recurve well east of the Caribbean, sparing the Caribbean and U.S. from what could have been a disastrous hurricane season.
Since Hurricane Emily made landfall three weeks ago, there have been at least 3 or 4 substantial systems that have recurved into the Atlantic - had it not been for this current weakness, there was a very good chance that of these 3 or 4 systems, at least 1 or 2 would have moved westward and intensified into a tropical storm or hurricane.
So, while the actual number of well-developed disturbances exiting Africa might be higher than normal this season, if the subtropical ridge is weak, then, this would certainly change the entire outcome of the season - as the NHC often says, a high number of tropical storms or hurricanes does not necessarily mean a high number of landfalling systems.
I would not want to guess as to the remainder of the season, but, I will say that I feel better about the entire issue, than I did just several weeks ago - we'll see what happens.
Frank
There is a new topic on this board titled "RIDGE GONE, big trough over east" that also talks about the trough in the Atlantic.
I first noticed this feature about 2 or 3 weeks ago, and, overall it seems that there is more of a weakness in the subtropical ridge than last year at this time, which is a good thing, and can mean that even if there are many well-developed Cape Verde systems, it's possible that because of this weakness, some or even many will recurve into the mid-Atlantic.
In past posts I had used the 1981 season, which began early but "ended" early because of a deeping long-term trough in the mid-Atlantic, that allowed 4 or 5 major Cape Verde hurricanes to recurve well east of the Caribbean, sparing the Caribbean and U.S. from what could have been a disastrous hurricane season.
Since Hurricane Emily made landfall three weeks ago, there have been at least 3 or 4 substantial systems that have recurved into the Atlantic - had it not been for this current weakness, there was a very good chance that of these 3 or 4 systems, at least 1 or 2 would have moved westward and intensified into a tropical storm or hurricane.
So, while the actual number of well-developed disturbances exiting Africa might be higher than normal this season, if the subtropical ridge is weak, then, this would certainly change the entire outcome of the season - as the NHC often says, a high number of tropical storms or hurricanes does not necessarily mean a high number of landfalling systems.
I would not want to guess as to the remainder of the season, but, I will say that I feel better about the entire issue, than I did just several weeks ago - we'll see what happens.
Frank
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